Stockton South Constituency Poll
Survation have released details of a single constituency poll in Stockton South. The figures, with changes from the 2010 general election, are CON 39% (-), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15), OTH 3% (-2). First note that the poll is not weighted by past voting. For instance, the sample has 48.2% of 2010 Conservative voters which is rather different from the actual 38.9%.
The biggest change is a 15 percentage point boost for UKIP and a 12 percentage point collapse for the Liberal Democrats. More significantly, the Conservative and Labour ratings are essentially the same as they were in 2010. To put Stockton South in context, it is the 7th target seat for Labour and the 8th most vulnerable Conservative seat. If Labour were to win the next general election then Stockton South should in theory be easy for them to take. Indeed, the current polling average suggests that on a uniform swing, Stockton South should go Labour with a 7.48% majority over the Conservatives.
Its predecessors Stockton-on-Tees and Thornaby have been historically safe Labour seats from 1945 to 1979. In 1983, Stockton South went to the SDP following Ian Wrigglesworth's defection from Labour. In 1987, the now three way marginal went Conservative and elected Tim Devlin by 774 votes. He held the seat in 1992. Stockton South easily went Labour in Blair's 1997 landslide when Dari Taylor was elected. He held the seat up until 2010 when it went to the Conservative James Wharton with a slender 332 majority.