Welsh Assembly Swingometer

This page contains the Welsh Assembly swingometer used to predict election results for the next Welsh Assembly election scheduled to be held in 2021.

We track the latest polls for the next Welsh Assembly election.

Welsh Assembly Election 2016 (Use for 2021)

Wales

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Region
Labour
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Brexit Party
%
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
6
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour2925+2-6-4
Conservative1119+80+8
Plaid Cymru1215+4-1+3
Liberal Democrat11000
UKIP700-7-7
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour34.71%34.00%-0.71%27210-6-6
Conservative21.15%31.00%+9.85%611+50+5
Plaid Cymru20.54%22.00%+1.46%67+10+1
Liberal Democrat7.67%5.00%-2.67%11000
Green2.47%2.47%0.00%00000
UKIP12.46%0.00%-12.46%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour31.46%32.00%+0.54%24+20+2
Conservative18.81%28.00%+9.19%58+30+3
Plaid Cymru20.85%24.00%+3.15%68+3-1+2
Liberal Democrat6.46%5.00%-1.46%00000
Green2.98%4.00%+1.02%00000
Brexit Party0.00%3.00%+3.00%00000
UKIP13.02%0.00%-13.02%700-7-7
Map Options

On the current prediction the seats that will change hands are as follows:

Plaid Cymru gains
LlanelliMid and West Wales
Conservative gains
Cardiff NorthSouth Wales Central
Vale of GlamorganSouth Wales Central
GowerSouth Wales West
Vale of ClwydNorth Wales
WrexhamNorth Wales

South Wales East

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
UKIP
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Region
Labour
%
UKIP
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Brexit Party
%

South Wales Central

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Region
Labour
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Brexit Party
%

South Wales West

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Region
Labour
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Brexit Party
%

Mid and West Wales

Constituency
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
Labour
%
Liberal Democrat
%
UKIP
%
Region
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
Labour
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Brexit Party
%

North Wales

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Region
Labour
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
UKIP
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Brexit Party
%

Welsh Assembly Election 2011 (Use for 2016)

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