Welsh Assembly Swingometer

This page contains the Welsh Assembly swingometer used to predict election results for the next Welsh Assembly election scheduled to be held in 2026.

We track the latest polls for the next Welsh Assembly election.

Welsh Assembly Election 2021 (Use for 2026)

Wales

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
1
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour3030000
Conservative1617+10+1
Plaid Cymru13120-1-1
Liberal Democrat11000
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour39.85%37.00%-2.85%2727000
Conservative26.07%27.00%+0.93%88000
Plaid Cymru20.27%19.00%-1.27%55000
Liberal Democrat4.88%5.00%+0.12%00000
Reform UK1.57%5.00%+3.43%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour36.17%33.00%-3.17%33000
Conservative25.08%26.00%+0.92%89+10+1
Plaid Cymru20.72%19.00%-1.72%870-1-1
Green4.39%5.00%+0.61%00000
Liberal Democrat4.34%4.00%-0.34%11000
Abolish the Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%+0.00%00000
Reform UK1.06%2.00%+0.94%00000
Map Options

South Wales East

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%

South Wales Central

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%

South Wales West

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%

Mid and West Wales

Constituency
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
Labour
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
Labour
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%

North Wales

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Reform UK
%

Welsh Assembly Election 2016 (Use for 2021)

Welsh Assembly Election 2011 (Use for 2016)

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