Welsh Assembly Swingometer
This page contains the Welsh Assembly swingometer used to predict election results for the next Welsh Assembly election scheduled to be held in 2021.
We track the latest polls for the next Welsh Assembly election.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
3
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 29 | 28 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Conservative | 11 | 16 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Plaid Cymru | 12 | 15 | +3 | 0 | +3 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 7 | 0 | 0 | -7 | -7 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 34.71% | 38.00% | +3.29% | 27 | 26 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Conservative | 21.15% | 27.00% | +5.85% | 6 | 7 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.54% | 20.00% | -0.54% | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 7.67% | 3.00% | -4.67% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 2.47% | 2.47% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 12.46% | 0.00% | -12.46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 31.46% | 33.00% | +1.54% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 18.81% | 24.00% | +5.19% | 5 | 9 | +4 | 0 | +4 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.85% | 20.00% | -0.85% | 6 | 9 | +3 | 0 | +3 |
| Brexit Party | 0.00% | 5.00% | +5.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 2.98% | 4.00% | +1.02% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 6.46% | 4.00% | -2.46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 13.02% | 0.00% | -13.02% | 7 | 0 | 0 | -7 | -7 |
On the current prediction the seats that will change hands are as follows:
Conservative gains
Mid and West Wales
