Scottish Parliament Swingometer
This page contains the Scottish Parliament swingometer used to predict election results for the next Scottish election scheduled to be held in 2031.
We track the latest polls for the next Scottish election.
Scotland
HUNG PARLIAMENT
SNP
short by
8
65 seats needed for a majority
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| SNP | 58 | 57 | +1 | -2 | -1 |
| Reform UK | 17 | 20 | +3 | 0 | +3 |
| Labour | 17 | 18 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Green | 15 | 14 | +1 | -2 | -1 |
| Conservative | 12 | 10 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Liberal Democrat | 10 | 10 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| SNP | 38.18% | 36.49% | -1.69% | 57 | 55 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Labour | 19.18% | 18.51% | -0.67% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reform UK | 15.76% | 17.89% | +2.13% | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Conservative | 11.83% | 11.61% | -0.22% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11.38% | 11.09% | -0.29% | 7 | 8 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Green | 2.29% | 2.41% | +0.12% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| SNP | 27.18% | 27.31% | +0.13% | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Reform UK | 16.65% | 18.68% | +2.03% | 17 | 19 | +2 | 0 | +2 |
| Labour | 16.01% | 15.69% | -0.32% | 14 | 15 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Green | 13.98% | 14.28% | +0.30% | 13 | 12 | +1 | -2 | -1 |
| Conservative | 11.79% | 11.41% | -0.38% | 8 | 6 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Liberal Democrat | 9.39% | 10.18% | +0.79% | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
On the current prediction the seats that will change hands are as follows:
Liberal Democrat gains
Reform UK gains
Central Scotland
Highlands and Islands
Mid Scotland and Fife
North East Scotland
South Scotland
West Scotland