Senedd Swingometer
This page contains the Senedd swingometer used to predict election results for the next Senedd election scheduled to be held in 2026.
We track the latest polls for the next Senedd election.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
1
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 30 | 30 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
| Conservative | 16 | 12 | 0 | -4 | -4 |
| Plaid Cymru | 13 | 12 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 39.85% | 37.00% | -2.85% | 27 | 28 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.27% | 22.00% | +1.73% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 26.07% | 21.00% | -5.07% | 8 | 7 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Reform UK | 1.57% | 10.00% | +8.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.88% | 4.00% | -0.88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 36.17% | 37.00% | +0.83% | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Conservative | 25.08% | 20.00% | -5.08% | 8 | 5 | 0 | -3 | -3 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.72% | 20.00% | -0.72% | 8 | 7 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Reform UK | 1.06% | 10.00% | +8.94% | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.34% | 5.00% | +0.66% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abolish the Welsh Assembly | 3.73% | 3.73% | +0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 4.39% | 3.00% | -1.39% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
On the current prediction the seats that will change hands are as follows:
Labour gains
Mid and West Wales