Senedd Swingometer
This page contains the Senedd swingometer used to predict election results for the next Senedd election scheduled to be held in 2026. Note that these calculations use our estimate of the new boundaries.
We track the latest polls for the next Senedd election.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Plaid Cymru
short by
9
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 13 | 22 | +17 | -8 | +9 |
| Labour | 30 | 14 | +9 | -25 | -16 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 14 | +14 | 0 | +14 |
| Conservative | 16 | 9 | +2 | -9 | -7 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1 | 1 | +1 | -1 | 0 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Plaid Cymru | 20.27% | 31.97% | +11.70% | 5 | 22 | +17 | 0 | +17 |
| Reform UK | 1.57% | 28.15% | +26.58% | 0 | 14 | +14 | 0 | +14 |
| Labour | 39.85% | 12.66% | -27.19% | 27 | 2 | 0 | -25 | -25 |
| Conservative | 26.07% | 10.41% | -15.66% | 8 | 1 | 0 | -7 | -7 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.88% | 5.62% | +0.74% | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 36.17% | 36.17% | +0.00% | 3 | 12 | +9 | 0 | +9 |
| Conservative | 25.08% | 25.08% | +0.00% | 8 | 8 | +2 | -2 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.72% | 20.72% | +0.00% | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | -8 |
| Green | 4.39% | 4.39% | +0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.34% | 4.34% | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Abolish Welsh Assembly | 3.73% | 3.73% | +0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reform UK | 1.06% | 1.06% | +0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
On the current prediction the seats that will change hands are as follows:
Liberal Democrat gains
Reform UK gains
Plaid Cymru gains
Mid and West Wales