YouGov and ComRes

YouGov has released its Sunday Times poll which shows CON 31%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 18%. YouGov is still showing Labour and the Conservatives roughly equal with Labour perhaps slightly ahead. Remember that even if the Conservatives were a few percentage points ahead, a uniform swing would still make Labour the largest party, although a substantial SNP surge would dampen this effect. On a uniform swing, Labour will win a majority of 12 seats on a 4.6% swing from Conservative to Labour.

ComRes has also released a poll showing CON 30%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 19%. On a uniform swing, Labour would win with a comfortable majority of 40 seats on a large 5.6% swing from Conservative to Labour.