Below are lists of Conservative target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.
Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2024 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.
View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.
(order by percentage majority)
Rank | Constituency | Region | Majority | Swing Needed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Warrington South | North West | 65 | 0.06% | |
2. | Coventry North West | West Midlands | 208 | 0.22% | |
3. | Kensington and Bayswater | London | 390 | 0.36% | |
4. | Alyn and Deeside | Wales | 411 | 0.39% | |
5. | Wirral West | North West | 455 | 0.41% | |
6. | Beckenham and Penge | London | 631 | 0.52% | |
7. | Heywood and Middleton North | North West | 680 | 0.80% | |
8. | Dagenham and Rainham | London | 706 | 0.80% | |
9. | Coventry South | West Midlands | 808 | 0.86% | |
10. | Warwick and Leamington | West Midlands | 1,169 | 1.12% | |
11. | Bedford | East of England | 1,113 | 1.19% | |
12. | Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley | Yorkshire and the Humber | 1,082 | 1.31% | |
13. | Doncaster Central | Yorkshire and the Humber | 1,271 | 1.38% | |
14. | Ceredigion Preseli | Wales | 1,443 | 1.40% | |
15. | Rawmarsh and Conisbrough | Yorkshire and the Humber | 1,257 | 1.55% | |
16. | Chesterfield | East Midlands | 1,451 | 1.61% | |
17. | Oldham East and Saddleworth | North West | 1,499 | 1.62% | |
18. | Warrington North | North West | 1,513 | 1.63% | |
19. | Canterbury | South East | 2,160 | 1.89% | |
20. | Halifax | Yorkshire and the Humber | 1,902 | 1.99% | |
21. | Newport West and Islwyn | Wales | 2,001 | 2.06% | |
22. | Perth and Kinross-shire | Scotland | 2,364 | 2.09% | |
23. | Cramlington and Killingworth | North East | 2,157 | 2.24% | |
24. | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Scotland | 2,329 | 2.50% | |
25. | Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | Scotland | 2,906 | 2.56% | |
26. | Doncaster North | Yorkshire and the Humber | 2,070 | 2.58% | |
27. | Nottingham North and Kimberley | East Midlands | 2,490 | 2.89% | |
28. | Gower | Wales | 3,181 | 2.93% | |
29. | Leeds East | Yorkshire and the Humber | 2,723 | 3.06% | |
30. | Leeds West and Pudsey | Yorkshire and the Humber | 2,963 | 3.09% | |
31. | Wolverhampton South East | West Midlands | 2,373 | 3.10% | |
32. | Tynemouth | North East | 3,512 | 3.26% | |
33. | Bradford South | Yorkshire and the Humber | 2,729 | 3.34% | |
34. | Croydon East | London | 3,413 | 3.37% | |
35. | Sunderland Central | North East | 2,964 | 3.41% | |
36. | Stalybridge and Hyde | North West | 2,946 | 3.48% | |
37. | East Lothian | Scotland | 3,715 | 3.62% | |
38. | Houghton and Sunderland South | North East | 3,271 | 3.65% | |
39. | Hull East | Yorkshire and the Humber | 2,495 | 3.67% | |
40. | Rotherham | Yorkshire and the Humber | 3,297 | 3.79% | |
41. | Putney | London | 4,416 | 3.98% | |
42. | Birmingham Erdington | West Midlands | 3,305 | 3.98% | |
43. | Worsley and Eccles | North West | 3,961 | 4.00% | |
44. | Normanton and Hemsworth | Yorkshire and the Humber | 3,520 | 4.06% | |
45. | Llanelli | Wales | 3,793 | 4.32% | |
46. | Hartlepool | North East | 3,595 | 4.38% | |
47. | Durham, City of | North East | 4,657 | 4.54% | |
48. | Blaydon and Consett | North East | 4,285 | 4.56% | |
49. | Stockton North | North East | 3,972 | 4.61% | |
50. | Washington and Gateshead South | North East | 3,938 | 4.61% | |
51. | Durham North | North East | 4,424 | 4.63% | |
52. | Torfaen | Wales | 4,110 | 4.72% | |
53. | Argyll, Bute and Lochaber South | Scotland | 4,897 | 4.83% | |
54. | Renfrewshire East | Scotland | 5,426 | 4.90% | |
55. | Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | South West | 5,122 | 5.20% | |
56. | Angus and Perthshire Glens | Scotland | 6,005 | 5.31% | |
57. | St Albans | East of England | 5,905 | 5.34% | |
58. | Aberdeen South | Scotland | 5,463 | 5.45% | |
59. | Battersea | London | 6,026 | 5.49% | |
60. | Makerfield | North West | 4,955 | 5.49% | |
61. | Sheffield South East | Yorkshire and the Humber | 5,214 | 5.56% | |
62. | Bristol North East | South West | 5,464 | 5.59% | |
63. | Newport East | Wales | 5,239 | 5.64% | |
64. | Portsmouth South | South East | 5,363 | 5.65% | |
65. | Ashton-under-Lyne | North West | 4,689 | 5.67% | |
66. | Ayrshire Central | Scotland | 5,304 | 5.70% | |
67. | Chester North and Neston | North West | 6,391 | 5.93% | |
68. | Runcorn and Helsby | North West | 5,779 | 5.97% | |
69. | Bristol North West | South West | 7,235 | 6.19% | |
70. | Leicester East | East Midlands | 5,999 | 6.22% | |
71. | Newcastle upon Tyne North | North East | 6,823 | 6.30% | |
72. | Leicester West | East Midlands | 4,882 | 6.32% | |
73. | Richmond Park | London | 7,725 | 6.54% | |
74. | Hull North and Cottingham | Yorkshire and the Humber | 5,922 | 6.59% | |
75. | Luton South and Bedfordshire South | East of England | 6,066 | 6.73% | |
76. | Southampton Test | South East | 6,213 | 6.90% | |
77. | Cardiff North | Wales | 7,579 | 6.93% | |
78. | Gateshead Central and Whickham | North East | 5,911 | 7.03% | |
79. | Derby South | East Midlands | 6,019 | 7.09% | |
80. | Blyth and Ashington | North East | 6,118 | 7.12% | |
81. | Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Scotland | 6,640 | 7.25% | |
82. | Barnsley North | Yorkshire and the Humber | 6,478 | 7.28% | |
83. | Stirling and Strathallan | Scotland | 8,556 | 7.40% | |
84. | Sheffield Hallam | Yorkshire and the Humber | 5,569 | 7.41% | |
85. | Wigan | North West | 6,728 | 7.47% | |
86. | Huddersfield | Yorkshire and the Humber | 7,441 | 7.54% | |
87. | Caerphilly | Wales | 6,901 | 7.66% | |
88. | Lancashire West | North West | 8,336 | 7.91% | |
89. | Feltham and Heston | London | 6,993 | 7.97% | |
90. | Reading Central | South East | 8,351 | 8.10% | |
91. | Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | South East | 8,280 | 8.38% | |
92. | Birmingham Edgbaston | West Midlands | 7,691 | 8.43% | |
93. | Coventry East | West Midlands | 7,288 | 8.54% | |
94. | Enfield North | London | 8,853 | 8.71% | |
95. | Ilford North | London | 9,030 | 8.72% | |
96. | Ayrshire North and Arran | Scotland | 8,521 | 8.85% | |
97. | Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Scotland | 8,528 | 8.99% | |
98. | Oxford West and Abingdon | South East | 9,577 | 9.05% | |
99. | Sefton Central | North West | 10,414 | 9.12% | |
100. | South Shields | North East | 8,365 | 9.13% | |
101. | Harrow West | London | 9,098 | 9.14% | |
102. | Bathgate and Linlithgow | Scotland | 8,671 | 9.18% | |
103. | Bristol South | South West | 9,077 | 9.40% | |
104. | Neath and Swansea East | Wales | 8,451 | 9.43% | |
105. | Barnsley South | Yorkshire and the Humber | 7,187 | 9.58% | |
106. | Rochdale | North West | 8,109 | 9.64% | |
107. | Pontypridd | Wales | 8,798 | 9.65% | |
108. | Brent West | London | 9,431 | 9.74% | |
109. | Kingston and Surbiton | London | 11,174 | 9.76% | |
110. | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Wales | 9,880 | 9.78% | |
111. | Luton North | East of England | 8,740 | 9.80% | |
112. | Easington | North East | 7,852 | 9.85% | |
113. | Midlothian | Scotland | 9,566 | 9.92% | |
114. | Cardiff West | Wales | 10,546 | 10.15% | |
115. | Hammersmith and Chiswick | London | 10,823 | 10.16% | |
116. | Arbroath and Broughty Ferry | Scotland | 10,777 | 10.34% | |
117. | Hayes and Harlington | London | 9,261 | 10.53% | |
118. | Bath | South West | 12,125 | 10.66% | |
119. | Brentford and Isleworth | London | 11,369 | 11.01% | |
120. | Nottingham South | East Midlands | 10,041 | 11.13% | |
121. | Twickenham | London | 13,074 | 11.20% | |
122. | Exeter | South West | 10,988 | 11.30% | |
123. | Swansea West | Wales | 10,037 | 11.35% | |
124. | Dunfermline and Dollar | Scotland | 11,107 | 11.42% | |
125. | Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles) | Scotland | 3,315 | 11.45% | |
126. | Edinburgh South West | Scotland | 11,982 | 11.49% | |
127. | Wythenshawe and Sale East | North West | 10,396 | 11.61% | |
128. | Cardiff South and Penarth | Wales | 11,851 | 11.76% | |
129. | Birmingham Selly Oak | West Midlands | 11,645 | 12.04% | |
130. | Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Scotland | 11,101 | 12.19% | |
131. | Ealing North | London | 11,908 | 12.21% | |
132. | Tooting | London | 14,307 | 12.23% | |
133. | Hampstead and Highgate | London | 14,042 | 12.23% | |
134. | Norwich South | East of England | 12,583 | 12.26% | |
135. | Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton | North West | 11,127 | 12.41% | |
136. | Bolton South and Walkden | North West | 10,929 | 12.42% | |
137. | Livingston | Scotland | 12,475 | 12.66% | |
138. | Inverness, Skye and Ross-shire West | Scotland | 12,865 | 12.67% | |
139. | East Kilbride and Strathaven | Scotland | 13,269 | 12.70% | |
140. | Jarrow and Gateshead East | North East | 10,317 | 12.74% | |
141. | St Helens North | North West | 12,209 | 12.84% | |
142. | Falkirk | Scotland | 12,578 | 12.91% | |
143. | Stockport | North West | 12,012 | 13.05% | |
144. | Edinburgh North and Leith | Scotland | 15,411 | 13.09% | |
145. | Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Scotland | 12,659 | 13.29% | |
146. | Ealing Central and Acton | London | 14,133 | 13.34% | |
147. | Sheffield Heeley | Yorkshire and the Humber | 12,220 | 13.37% | |
148. | Smethwick | West Midlands | 10,974 | 13.39% | |
149. | Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | London | 13,067 | 13.54% | |
150. | Rutherglen | Scotland | 12,665 | 13.72% | |
151. | Preston | North West | 11,850 | 13.74% | |
152. | Alloa and Grangemouth | Scotland | 12,727 | 13.82% | |
153. | Aberdeen North | Scotland | 14,210 | 14.17% | |
154. | York Central | Yorkshire and the Humber | 14,342 | 14.31% | |
155. | Southgate and Wood Green | London | 15,414 | 14.62% | |
156. | Slough | South East | 13,347 | 14.65% | |
157. | Paisley and Renfrewshire North | Scotland | 13,722 | 14.67% | |
158. | Edinburgh South | Scotland | 15,586 | 14.70% | |
159. | Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Scotland | 13,711 | 14.80% | |
160. | Middlesbrough and Thornaby East | North East | 11,141 | 14.82% | |
161. | Edinburgh West | Scotland | 11,115 | 14.95% | |
162. | Erith and Thamesmead | London | 12,988 | 15.07% | |
163. | Hove and Portslade | South East | 17,044 | 15.11% | |
164. | Aberafan Maesteg | Wales | 13,457 | 15.15% | |
165. | Dewsbury and Batley | Yorkshire and the Humber | 14,009 | 15.19% | |
166. | Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough | Yorkshire and the Humber | 12,591 | 15.37% | |
167. | Mitcham and Morden | London | 15,879 | 15.38% | |
168. | Blackley and Middleton South | North West | 11,558 | 15.39% | |
169. | Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | Wales | 12,969 | 15.40% | |
170. | Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare | Wales | 13,410 | 15.55% | |
171. | Birmingham Yardley | West Midlands | 13,141 | 15.68% | |
172. | Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North | West Midlands | 12,951 | 15.68% | |
173. | Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Scotland | 14,567 | 15.81% | |
174. | Airdrie and Shotts | Scotland | 12,667 | 15.85% | |
175. | Leeds South | Yorkshire and the Humber | 13,886 | 16.05% | |
176. | Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | North West | 14,577 | 16.12% | |
177. | Greenwich and Woolwich | London | 15,283 | 16.14% | |
178. | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Scotland | 11,359 | 16.26% | |
179. | Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West | North East | 15,731 | 16.34% | |
180. | Stretford and Urmston | North West | 16,417 | 16.40% | |
181. | Cambridge | East of England | 16,256 | 16.40% | |
182. | Bermondsey and Old Southwark | London | 15,066 | 16.42% | |
183. | Glasgow West | Scotland | 15,710 | 16.62% | |
184. | Leeds North East | Yorkshire and the Humber | 17,089 | 16.92% | |
185. | Barking | London | 13,993 | 17.06% | |
186. | Salford | North West | 14,248 | 17.06% | |
187. | Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Scotland | 14,439 | 17.08% | |
188. | Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Scotland | 18,233 | 17.45% | |
189. | Oxford East | South East | 15,959 | 17.50% | |
190. | Bristol East | South West | 19,393 | 17.54% | |
191. | Dunbartonshire West | Scotland | 16,557 | 17.76% | |
192. | Glasgow South | Scotland | 17,288 | 17.81% | |
193. | Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend | North East | 17,793 | 17.81% | |
194. | Ealing Southall | London | 18,266 | 17.91% | |
195. | Clapham and Brixton Hill | London | 17,443 | 17.93% | |
196. | Cardiff East | Wales | 17,079 | 18.25% | |
197. | St Helens South and Whiston | North West | 16,720 | 18.42% | |
198. | Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Scotland | 17,841 | 18.50% | |
199. | Dunbartonshire Mid | Scotland | 13,061 | 18.85% | |
200. | Wallasey | North West | 19,422 | 18.87% |
View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.
Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.
View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.
(order by percentage majority)
Rank | Constituency | Region | Majority | Swing Needed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Ayr | South Scotland | 170 | 0.20% | |
2. | Banffshire and Buchan Coast | North East Scotland | 772 | 1.17% | |
3. | Aberdeen South and North Kincardine | North East Scotland | 1,671 | 2.14% | |
4. | Perthshire South and Kinross-shire | Mid Scotland and Fife | 1,948 | 2.21% | |
5. | Aberdeenshire East | North East Scotland | 1,889 | 2.30% | |
6. | Moray | Highlands and Islands | 3,164 | 3.85% | |
7. | Angus North and Mearns | North East Scotland | 3,509 | 4.97% | |
8. | Perthshire North | Mid Scotland and Fife | 4,053 | 5.05% | |
9. | Edinburgh Pentlands | Lothian | 3,897 | 5.10% | |
10. | Clydesdale | South Scotland | 4,578 | 5.62% | |
11. | Edinburgh Central | Lothian | 4,732 | 5.67% | |
12. | Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley | South Scotland | 4,337 | 6.09% | |
13. | Angus South | North East Scotland | 6,117 | 7.92% | |
14. | Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale | South Scotland | 6,826 | 7.93% | |
15. | Stirling | Mid Scotland and Fife | 6,895 | 8.43% | |
16. | Inverness and Nairn | Highlands and Islands | 9,114 | 9.96% | |
17. | Aberdeen Central | North East Scotland | 6,594 | 10.42% | |
18. | Cunninghame North | West Scotland | 7,776 | 10.46% | |
19. | Clackmannanshire and Dunblane | Mid Scotland and Fife | 7,551 | 10.80% | |
20. | Renfrewshire North and West | West Scotland | 8,970 | 11.75% | |
21. | Strathkelvin and Bearsden | West Scotland | 11,484 | 12.42% | |
22. | Aberdeen Donside | North East Scotland | 9,026 | 12.57% | |
23. | Argyll and Bute | Highlands and Islands | 8,963 | 13.35% | |
24. | Falkirk East | Central Scotland | 10,799 | 13.90% | |
25. | Linlithgow | Lothian | 13,221 | 14.10% | |
26. | Cunninghame South | West Scotland | 8,587 | 14.26% | |
27. | East Lothian | South Scotland | 8,498 | 15.99% | |
28. | Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse | Central Scotland | 10,429 | 16.11% | |
29. | Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley | South Scotland | 13,123 | 16.15% | |
30. | Dunfermline | Mid Scotland and Fife | 13,734 | 16.77% |
View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.
Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Senedd election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.
View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.
(order by percentage majority)
Rank | Constituency | Region | Majority | Swing Needed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Wrexham | North Wales | 1,350 | 2.99% | |
2. | Vale of Glamorgan | South Wales Central | 3,270 | 3.81% | |
3. | Clwyd South | North Wales | 2,913 | 6.02% | |
4. | Newport West | South Wales East | 3,906 | 6.60% | |
5. | Bridgend | South Wales West | 4,064 | 6.90% | |
6. | Delyn | North Wales | 3,711 | 7.02% | |
7. | Gower | South Wales West | 4,795 | 7.23% | |
8. | Newport East | South Wales East | 3,584 | 7.74% | |
9. | Cardiff North | South Wales Central | 6,593 | 8.11% | |
10. | Alyn and Deeside | North Wales | 4,378 | 8.47% | |
11. | Pontypridd | South Wales Central | 5,853 | 10.62% | |
12. | Torfaen | South Wales East | 5,321 | 11.11% | |
13. | Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | Mid and West Wales | 7,510 | 11.29% | |
14. | Islwyn | South Wales East | 6,068 | 12.39% | |
15. | Swansea West | South Wales West | 6,521 | 13.59% | |
16. | Neath | South Wales West | 7,559 | 13.70% | |
17. | Caerphilly | South Wales East | 8,276 | 14.31% | |
18. | Cardiff South and Penarth | South Wales Central | 10,606 | 14.57% | |
19. | Llanelli | Mid and West Wales | 8,983 | 14.86% | |
20. | Dwyfor Meirionnydd | Mid and West Wales | 7,096 | 14.90% |
View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.