Conservative Target Seats

Below are lists of Conservative target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.

Conservative Target Seats 2022

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2022 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing Needed
1.Perth and North PerthshireScotland210.02%
2.KensingtonLondon200.03%
3.Dudley NorthWest Midlands220.03%
4.Newcastle-under-LymeWest Midlands300.03%
5.Crewe and NantwichNorth West480.04%
6.CanterburySouth East1870.16%
7.Barrow and FurnessNorth West2090.22%
8.KeighleyYorkshire and the Humber2490.24%
9.Lanark and Hamilton EastScotland2660.26%
10.AshfieldEast Midlands4410.44%
11.StroudSouth West6870.54%
12.Bishop AucklandNorth East5020.58%
13.PeterboroughEast of England6070.64%
14.Oxford West and AbingdonSouth East8160.68%
15.Westmorland and LonsdaleNorth West7770.75%
16.Colne ValleyYorkshire and the Humber9150.76%
17.IpswichEast of England8310.81%
18.BedfordEast of England7890.81%
19.Stockton SouthNorth East8880.82%
20.Edinburgh South WestScotland1,0971.11%
21.Warwick and LeamingtonWest Midlands1,2061.12%
22.Penistone and StocksbridgeYorkshire and the Humber1,3221.33%
23.Carshalton and WallingtonLondon1,3691.35%
24.Argyll and ButeScotland1,3281.38%
25.EastbourneSouth East1,6091.40%
26.Ayrshire CentralScotland1,2671.41%
27.LincolnEast Midlands1,5381.58%
28.Portsmouth SouthSouth East1,5541.74%
29.Warrington SouthNorth West2,5492.06%
30.Derby NorthEast Midlands2,0152.07%
31.High PeakEast Midlands2,3222.16%
32.BatterseaLondon2,4162.19%
33.WakefieldYorkshire and the Humber2,1762.35%
34.Wolverhampton South WestWest Midlands2,1852.58%
35.WrexhamWales1,8322.61%
36.Stoke-on-Trent NorthWest Midlands2,3592.82%
37.DewsburyYorkshire and the Humber3,3212.94%
38.Vale of ClwydWales2,3793.07%
39.East LothianScotland3,6183.24%
40.Kingston and SurbitonLondon4,1243.32%
41.Norfolk NorthEast of England3,5123.36%
42.Reading EastSouth East3,7493.39%
43.GowerWales3,2693.59%
44.Blackpool SouthNorth West2,5233.61%
45.Great GrimsbyYorkshire and the Humber2,5653.61%
46.Linlithgow and Falkirk EastScotland4,0773.63%
47.DarlingtonNorth East3,2803.66%
48.Ayrshire North and ArranScotland3,6333.83%
49.Weaver ValeNorth West3,9283.88%
50.Rother ValleyYorkshire and the Humber3,8823.92%
51.Edinburgh North and LeithScotland3,8583.95%
52.Cardiff NorthWales4,1744.01%
53.Bolton North EastNorth West3,7974.20%
54.ScunthorpeYorkshire and the Humber3,4314.27%
55.Bristol North WestSouth West4,7614.40%
56.Enfield SouthgateLondon4,3554.51%
57.GedlingEast Midlands4,6944.54%
58.Bury NorthNorth West4,3754.57%
59.BassetlawEast Midlands4,8524.64%
60.Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and StrathspeyScotland4,9244.66%
61.WorkingtonNorth West3,9254.71%
62.Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthScotland4,6134.95%
63.Croydon CentralLondon5,6524.95%
64.Dagenham and RainhamLondon4,6525.07%
65.Birmingham NorthfieldWest Midlands4,6675.26%
66.DelynWales4,2405.38%
67.BridgendWales4,7005.43%
68.HalifaxYorkshire and the Humber5,3765.57%
69.Don ValleyYorkshire and the Humber5,1695.62%
70.BolsoverEast Midlands5,2885.68%
71.BathSouth West5,6945.74%
72.Clwyd SouthWales4,3565.81%
73.Alyn and DeesideWales5,2355.85%
74.Bury SouthNorth West5,9655.85%
75.Stoke-on-Trent CentralWest Midlands3,8975.88%
76.Wirral WestNorth West5,3656.10%
77.West Bromwich WestWest Midlands4,4606.18%
78.Wolverhampton North EastWest Midlands4,5876.28%
79.FalkirkScotland6,8646.38%
80.HyndburnNorth West5,8156.43%
81.Newport WestWales5,6586.51%
82.Carmarthen East and DinefwrWales5,3496.52%
83.Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossScotland4,0716.59%
84.Plymouth Sutton and DevonportSouth West6,8076.65%
85.Edinburgh WestScotland6,5496.74%
86.ChorleyNorth West7,5126.75%
87.East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowScotland7,3196.76%
88.ElthamLondon6,2966.82%
89.Ynys MonWales5,2597.04%
90.Lancaster and FleetwoodNorth West6,6617.24%
91.SedgefieldNorth East6,0597.28%
92.TwickenhamLondon9,7627.36%
93.Heywood and MiddletonNorth West7,6177.64%
94.Ross, Skye and LochaberScotland5,9197.70%
95.Dundee EastScotland6,6457.74%
96.Kilmarnock and LoudounScotland7,2867.83%
97.BurnleyNorth West6,3537.88%
98.Birmingham EdgbastonWest Midlands6,9177.93%
99.Dwyfor MeirionnyddWales4,8507.99%
100.Chester, City ofNorth West9,1768.13%
101.Bradford SouthYorkshire and the Humber6,7008.16%
102.LivingstonScotland8,2378.30%
103.Batley and SpenYorkshire and the Humber8,9618.33%
104.Coventry SouthWest Midlands7,9478.45%
105.Coventry North WestWest Midlands8,5808.61%
106.Oldham East and SaddleworthNorth West8,1828.70%
107.Fife North EastScotland3,6558.73%
108.MidlothianScotland4,9378.95%
109.Ilford NorthLondon9,6399.10%
110.HartlepoolNorth East7,6509.14%
111.Durham North WestNorth East8,7929.18%
112.Worsley and Eccles SouthNorth West8,3799.18%
113.Dunfermline and Fife WestScotland5,5289.18%
114.Wirral SouthNorth West8,3239.21%
115.Aberdeen NorthScotland6,8299.29%
116.Blyth ValleyNorth East7,9159.31%
117.Stalybridge and HydeNorth West8,0849.52%
118.Birmingham ErdingtonWest Midlands7,2859.79%
119.West Bromwich EastWest Midlands7,7139.86%
120.Warrington NorthNorth West9,5829.87%
121.Brentford and IsleworthLondon12,1829.88%
122.ChesterfieldEast Midlands9,60510.02%
123.Brighton KemptownSouth East9,86810.03%
124.Walsall SouthWest Midlands8,89210.09%
125.LeighNorth West9,55410.19%
126.Stockton NorthNorth East8,71510.20%
127.TynemouthNorth East11,66610.26%
128.Enfield NorthLondon10,24710.55%
129.CeredigionWales4,31610.59%
130.Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNorth East10,34910.72%
131.Lancashire WestNorth West11,68910.75%
132.Sheffield HallamYorkshire and the Humber8,32010.86%
133.Newport EastWales8,00310.87%
134.HemsworthYorkshire and the Humber10,17411.07%
135.Sunderland CentralNorth East9,99711.08%
136.RedcarNorth East9,48511.14%
137.Ellesmere Port and NestonNorth West11,39011.18%
138.Erith and ThamesmeadLondon10,01411.26%
139.Hull West and HessleYorkshire and the Humber8,02511.61%
140.Wolverhampton South EastWest Midlands8,51411.73%
141.Doncaster CentralYorkshire and the Humber10,13111.77%
142.Southampton TestSouth East11,50312.26%
143.WansbeckNorth East10,43512.29%
144.Derby SouthEast Midlands11,24812.41%
145.Ealing Central and ActonLondon13,80712.47%
146.Durham, City ofNorth East12,36412.79%
147.Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathScotland6,25412.98%
148.Bristol EastSouth West13,39413.18%
149.Harrow WestLondon13,31413.22%
150.TootingLondon15,45813.29%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing Needed
1.Perthshire South and Kinross-shireMid Scotland and Fife1,4221.97%
2.Edinburgh PentlandsLothian2,4563.68%
3.Angus North and MearnsNorth East Scotland2,4724.21%
4.Aberdeen South and North KincardineNorth East Scotland2,7554.26%
5.MorayHighlands and Islands2,8754.30%
6.Perthshire NorthMid Scotland and Fife3,3364.90%
7.Edinburgh SouthernLothian3,6256.54%
8.Angus SouthNorth East Scotland4,3046.74%
9.Midlothian South, Tweeddale and LauderdaleSouth Scotland5,8688.25%
10.Aberdeenshire EastNorth East Scotland5,8378.40%
11.ClydesdaleSouth Scotland5,9798.87%
12.StirlingMid Scotland and Fife6,7189.82%
13.Strathkelvin and BearsdenWest Scotland8,10010.33%
14.Aberdeen CentralNorth East Scotland5,62610.53%
15.East LothianSouth Scotland5,28410.96%
16.Carrick, Cumnock and Doon ValleySouth Scotland7,02411.09%
17.Banffshire and Buchan CoastNorth East Scotland6,58311.48%
18.Renfrewshire North and WestWest Scotland7,37311.97%
19.Clackmannanshire and DunblaneMid Scotland and Fife7,23212.16%
20.DunfermlineMid Scotland and Fife8,46012.85%
21.Argyll and ButeHighlands and Islands7,72113.10%
22.Glasgow KelvinGlasgow7,61813.39%
23.Cunninghame NorthWest Scotland8,72413.65%
24.Inverness and NairnHighlands and Islands10,85714.17%
25.Hamilton, Larkhall and StonehouseCentral Scotland8,34914.45%
26.Edinburgh Northern and LeithLothian11,24115.15%
27.LinlithgowLothian11,66315.18%
28.Midlothian North and MusselburghLothian10,68115.40%
29.Clydebank and MilngavieWest Scotland10,12915.42%
30.Skye, Lochaber and BadenochHighlands and Islands11,47515.72%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2021 Welsh Assembly Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Welsh Assembly election.

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing Needed
1.Vale of GlamorganSouth Wales Central7771.03%
2.Vale of ClwydNorth Wales7681.59%
3.GowerSouth Wales West1,8293.03%
4.WrexhamNorth Wales1,3253.25%
5.Cardiff NorthSouth Wales Central3,6674.90%
6.Clwyd SouthNorth Wales3,0166.81%
7.Newport WestSouth Wales East4,1157.41%
8.DelynNorth Wales3,5827.73%
9.BridgendSouth Wales West5,62310.47%
10.Cardiff South and PenarthSouth Wales Central6,92111.43%
11.Swansea WestSouth Wales West5,08011.44%
12.PontypriddSouth Wales Central6,10212.04%
13.Alyn and DeesideNorth Wales5,36412.36%
14.TorfaenSouth Wales East5,75712.53%
15.Newport EastSouth Wales East5,46113.20%
16.Brecon and RadnorshireMid and West Wales8,17013.45%
17.Cardiff WestSouth Wales Central5,76414.36%
18.Dwyfor Meirionnydd Mid and West Wales6,40615.83%
19.Carmarthen East and DinefwrMid and West Wales9,93816.70%
20.NeathSouth Wales West7,28917.21%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Welsh Assembly election.

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