6 Marginal Seats Polled by Lord Ashcroft

Lord Ashcroft has polled six more marginal constituencies. In 2010, the Conservatives won five of these and the Liberal Democrats won one, although UKIP won Rochester and Strood at the by-election in November 2014.

At a glance, the Liberal Democrats appear to have had a substantial drop in their support with their vote share being reduced to single figures in five of the six constituencies. Labour are down in the Conservative-UKIP marginals but up everywhere else. The Conservatives are down against UKIP but are holding relatively steady in the seats where they are defending against Labour.

Rochester and Strood (2010)
Rochester and Strood was a reasonably safe Conservative seat in 2010, although its predecessor Medway was held by Labour as recently as 2005. Lord Ashcroft is showing a close race between the Conservatives and UKIP. On both the standard voting intention and the constituency voting intention, the Conservatives are ahead of UKIP with Labour in third place.

Thurrock (2010)
Thurrock used to be a safe Labour seat before being won by the Conservatives in 1987. It was won back by Labour in 1992, but fell again to the Conservatives in 2010. It is currently the third most vulnerable Conservative held seat. Lord Ashcroft is showing a 4 point UKIP lead over the Conservatives with Labour in close third. Thurrock is one of the top UKIP targets so they will be pleased by this poll, although they should not be complacent as the lead is not particularly comfortable.

High Peak (2010)
High Peak is a Conservative-Labour marginal. Usually it goes Conservative, although Labour have won there as recently as 2005. Lord Ashcroft is showing a 2 point Conservative lead, although this is within the margin of error.

Bristol North West (2010)
Bristol North West has been a bellwether seat since October 1974, that is, at every general election since October 1974 it has always been won by a candidate from the party who formed the government. Lord Ashcroft is showing a 9 point Conservative lead over Labour.

Bristol West (2010)
Bristol West is a rather odd constituency. It had been a safe Conservative seat at every general election from 1885 to 1992. In 1997, Labour won it with a 2.4% majority over the Conservatives. In 2005 the Liberal Democrats won the seat and then held it in 2010. It had seemed possible that the decline in the Conservative vote could have been explained by Conservatives tactically voting for the Liberal Democrats to keep Labour out. Lord Ashcroft is showing that the Liberal Democrat vote has declined substantially and the Conservative vote is down slightly. The main beneficiaries have been Labour and the Green Party. In the constituency voting intention, the Liberal Democrats are down 28 points, the Conservatives are down 4 points, Labour are up 10 points, the Green Party are up 21 points. It would look like Bristol West is an easy win for Labour, but the Green Party will be in a strong position to challenge them at a future general election.

Colne Valley (2010)
Colne Valley is an interesting constituency. Historically it was a Labour-Liberal marginal, although it was won by the Conservatives in 1987 and 2010. Lord Ashcroft shows the Conservatives holding on with a 2 point lead.
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