End of Election 2015 Polling

Every poll due to be released before the election has now been released. Most of the recent polls have shown ties, but a few have shown small Conservative leads and a couple have shown small Labour leads.

On average the polls are showing:

Conservative 33.6%
Labour 33.2%
UKIP 13.1%
Liberal Democrats 9.1%
Green 4.9%.

In terms of seat predictions, the one listed in the header is only what the result would be on a uniform swing. Of course with the SNP surge in Scotland, the rise of UKIP and the emergence of the Green Party, the swing will not be uniform. Several organisations have had a go at doing a more constituency based prediction and their results are summarised on Wikipedia.

Seat Prediction Average (Changes on 2010)

Conservative 281 (-25)
Labour 268 (+10)
SNP 52 (+46)
Liberal Democrat 25 (-32)
Plaid Cymru 3 (-)
UKIP 2 (+2)
Green 1 (-).

If these numbers turned out to be true then this would leave the Conservatives short by 45 of the 326 seats they would need for a majority. It would also leave a Labour+SNP coalition short by 6 of a majority.