First Labour Lead Since the Election

The two most recent polls for the next general election are both showing a swing from the Conservatives to Labour.

YouGov (during and after the budget)

YouGov conducted a poll between the 16th and 17th March showing Labour in the lead on 34%, the Conservatives on 33%, UKIP on 16%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and the Greens on 3%. On a uniform swing on the present boundaries, we would have a messy hung parliament, but a Labour-SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition would be possible, albeit with a wafer thin majority of 2.

After every budget, YouGov asks whether the budget was fair or not. This time, 28% thought the budget was fair and 38% said they did not think it was fair, giving a net fairness score of -10%. How does this compare to previous budgets? Not well at all. It is most comparable to, although slightly better than, the notorious "omnishambles budget" of 2012 which recorded a net fairness score of -16%.

ICM (before the budget)

ICM conducted a poll between the 11th and 13th March. It showed the Conservatives and Labour tied on 36%, UKIP on 11%, the Liberal Democrats on 8% and the Greens on 3%. This was the first time the two parties had tied since Election 2015 and would, on a uniform swing on the present boundaries, have resulted in a messy hung parliament and a possible end to the Conservative government.

However, before anyone gets too excited, ICM published an article which gave three reasons why their poll would be considered rogue. Their first reason was that the actual figures for the Conservatives and Labour were 36.4% and 35.6% respectively and that had one or two participants decided differently then the actual lead would have been 2% Conservative one. Secondly, their new turnout model was not used meaning they thought that their poll included too many Labour voters. Finally, they found that their poll had too many people recalling voting in Ed Miliband as PM.