Labour win the Newport West by-election

Labour have won the Newport West by-election. Votes were as follows:

Labour 9,308
Conservative 7,357
UKIP 2,023
Plaid Cymru 1,185
Liberal Democrat 1,088
Green 924
Renew 879
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 205
SDP 202
Democrats and Veterans 185
For Britain 159.

Percentages and changes are available here.

Vote Changes

There was a 2.4% swing from Labour to the Conservatives. However, this is really a "technical" swing rather than a meaningful swing because both the Labour vote and the Conservative vote collapsed: Labour by 13 percentage points and the Conservatives by 8 percentage points. UKIP were the main beneficiaries, increasing their vote share by 6 percentage points.

The Green Party, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats all made small gains, around 2.5 percentage points each. Renew won 3.7%, although they did not stand last time.

Turnout

Turnout was down 30 percentage points. Fairly low, but not unexpectedly so. Turnouts in by-elections (especially safe Labour seats) are often quite low.

Target Seats

For the Conservatives, the seat would now be their 53rd target, rather than their 81st.
For Labour, the seat would now be their 45th safest seat, rather than their 70th.
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