Populus

Populus has released its twice weekly poll showing CON 35%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 11%. The Liberal Democrats and UKIP are down two points on last time. Furthermore, the combined share of the Conservative and Labour vote is rather high, although Populus usually shows a larger combined share anyway. Probably just an outlier. We will see if the same phenomenon is repeated next time. On a uniform swing, Labour would win with a majority of 10 seats on a 4.1% swing from Conservative to Labour. Labour would be on 330 seats, the Conservatives on 279 seats and the Liberal Democrats on 15 seats.