Liberal Democrat Target Seats

Below are lists of Liberal Democrat target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.

Liberal Democrat Target Seats 2024

Below is the list of Liberal Democrat target seats for the 2024 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Liberal Democrat held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over LDSwing Needed
1.Carshalton and WallingtonLondon6290.64%
2.Fife North EastScotland7280.70%
3.WimbledonLondon8390.74%
4.Sheffield HallamYorkshire and the Humber1,1080.92%
5.Cambridgeshire SouthEast of England1,4981.25%
6.CheltenhamSouth West1,4211.25%
7.Dunbartonshire MidScotland1,9861.69%
8.CheadleNorth West2,3362.09%
9.EastbourneSouth East2,1682.11%
10.Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossScotland2,7882.64%
11.Esher and WaltonSouth East3,0152.68%
12.GuildfordSouth East3,1172.96%
13.LewesSouth East4,1263.71%
14.Hazel GroveNorth West4,2194.18%
15.Westmorland and LonsdaleNorth West5,1404.74%
16.St IvesSouth West5,2274.85%
17.Finchley and Golders GreenLondon6,6295.98%
18.Cities of London and WestminsterLondon6,3076.05%
19.WinchesterSouth East9,0507.08%
20.Taunton and WellingtonSouth West8,5367.84%
21.Harrogate and KnaresboroughYorkshire and the Humber8,7877.91%
22.CambridgeEast of England8,0998.14%
23.Sutton and CheamLondon8,3518.27%
24.WokingSouth East8,6838.50%
25.Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TaweWales9,0918.70%
26.EastleighSouth East8,6418.72%
27.Didcot and WantageSouth East10,0239.22%
28.Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkLondon8,5159.28%
29.Dorking and HorleySouth East10,3819.44%
30.Godalming and AshSouth East10,7209.63%
31.Dorset WestSouth West12,38810.71%
32.Chelsea and FulhamLondon11,85610.82%
33.Henley and ThameSouth East11,90111.05%
34.NewburySouth East11,46011.24%
35.WokinghamSouth East12,75011.59%
36.HitchinEast of England12,62111.67%
37.Hampstead and HighgateLondon13,40011.68%
38.St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireEast of England12,25012.24%
39.Ely and Cambridgeshire EastEast of England13,44912.35%
40.Devon SouthSouth West13,71912.66%
41.Wells and Mendip HillsSouth West14,29512.66%
42.Sussex MidSouth East13,66512.90%
43.Frome and Somerset EastSouth West12,39512.92%
44.Thornbury and YateSouth West14,53812.96%
45.ChippenhamSouth West13,20013.06%
46.Farnham and BordonSouth East13,57713.27%
47.Devon NorthSouth West14,81313.33%
48.Glastonbury and SomertonSouth West14,18313.33%
49.Tunbridge WellsSouth East14,64513.40%
50.Earley and WoodleySouth East13,77513.48%
51.Harpenden and BerkhamstedEast of England15,04413.50%
52.YeovilSouth West14,63813.52%
53.Ceredigion PreseliWales8,48413.63%
54.Bicester and WoodstockSouth East14,20513.66%
55.Norfolk NorthEast of England14,49214.05%
56.ChelmsfordEast of England15,41614.32%
57.Cornwall NorthSouth West15,78314.59%
58.Romsey and Southampton NorthSouth East16,25114.68%
59.Epsom and EwellSouth East16,85614.68%
60.Surrey HeathSouth East15,55214.74%
61.AylesburySouth East17,25414.90%
62.Durham, City ofNorth East12,31114.92%
63.Dorset Mid and Poole NorthSouth West16,57015.09%
64.Runnymede and WeybridgeSouth East16,07215.12%
65.Cotswolds SouthSouth West16,09215.13%
66.Melksham and DevizesSouth West17,02815.27%
67.York OuterYorkshire and the Humber16,95115.48%
68.HorshamSouth East17,35315.54%
69.Edinburgh North and LeithScotland18,40915.64%
70.Hornsey and Friern BarnetLondon16,60715.81%
71.BanburySouth East16,06215.81%
72.WitneySouth East15,67416.05%
73.Newton AbbotSouth West17,45616.65%
74.Inverness, Skye and Ross-shire WestScotland17,04016.78%
75.MaidenheadSouth East17,10116.79%
76.Chesham and AmershamSouth East18,21616.96%
77.Brentford and IsleworthLondon17,55317.00%
78.Bathgate and LinlithgowScotland16,42517.39%
79.TorbaySouth West17,75117.41%
80.Ealing Central and ActonLondon18,51617.47%
81.East Grinstead and UckfieldSouth East20,29117.73%
82.Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNorth East16,43517.75%
83.Stratford-on-AvonWest Midlands19,02017.76%
84.ReigateSouth East19,22017.76%
85.Clapham and Brixton HillLondon17,29117.78%
86.SalisburySouth West18,84817.87%
87.Dunfermline and DollarScotland17,43117.93%
88.TewkesburySouth West19,44318.05%
89.Kensington and BayswaterLondon10,34618.16%
90.Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrWales18,87118.43%
91.Hampshire EastSouth East20,20018.43%
92.Hammersmith and ChiswickLondon19,66118.45%
93.Somerset NorthSouth West20,98618.45%
94.WindsorSouth East18,59518.58%
95.Islington South and FinsburyLondon19,45818.66%
96.Harborough, Oadby and WigstonEast Midlands19,72518.76%
97.Buckingham and BletchleySouth East19,79418.81%
98.ColchesterEast of England18,48418.83%
99.RushcliffeEast Midlands18,67218.84%
100.Morecambe and LunesdaleNorth West21,14519.00%
101.Edinburgh SouthScotland20,16419.01%
102.Edinburgh South WestScotland19,85919.05%
103.ChichesterSouth East19,62219.23%
104.Bromley and Biggin HillLondon18,87219.23%
105.TootingLondon22,50619.24%
106.PutneyLondon15,23119.48%
107.AldershotSouth East20,38519.67%
108.BasingstokeSouth East20,16919.70%
109.Hertfordshire South WestEast of England20,08819.74%
110.Norfolk SouthEast of England20,49919.76%
111.Hampshire North EastSouth East22,43319.77%
112.Somerset North East and HanhamSouth West22,81019.86%
113.East Kilbride and StrathavenScotland20,75519.86%
114.Maidstone and MallingSouth East19,44819.88%
115.Welwyn HatfieldEast of England20,60519.89%
116.Northumberland NorthNorth East21,01319.92%
117.Reading West and Mid BerkshireSouth East19,72219.94%
118.Surrey EastSouth East20,56519.98%
119.Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerLondon20,99620.09%
120.BridgwaterSouth West18,12620.14%
121.Devon CentralSouth West22,86320.15%
122.Streatham and Croydon NorthLondon20,70220.17%
123.Greenwich and WoolwichLondon19,14120.22%
124.BatterseaLondon17,14120.24%
125.Croydon SouthLondon20,84020.30%
126.Argyll, Bute and Lochaber SouthScotland15,23120.37%
127.Hertford and StortfordEast of England23,07220.48%
128.LivingstonScotland20,21920.53%
129.Glasgow WestScotland19,41020.53%
130.Hertfordshire North EastEast of England22,73020.54%
131.TattonNorth West22,76620.55%
132.Hamble ValleySouth East23,48820.59%
133.Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthScotland19,31720.65%
134.Suffolk CoastalEast of England21,63720.66%
135.Cotswolds NorthSouth West20,99720.67%
136.Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenLondon19,22520.70%
137.Arundel and South DownsSouth East24,10520.74%
138.BracknellSouth East19,46720.76%
139.Gateshead Central and WhickhamNorth East14,64920.79%
140.Hampshire North WestSouth East21,50720.81%
141.Buckinghamshire MidSouth East22,64820.88%
142.Tiverton and MineheadSouth West20,66520.91%
143.Wiltshire South WestSouth West19,75920.91%
144.Torridge and TavistockSouth West22,89920.94%
145.Edinburgh East and MusselburghScotland21,94521.00%
146.Essex North WestEast of England23,22721.01%
147.Kenilworth and SouthamWest Midlands23,46521.03%
148.Fareham and WaterloovilleSouth East21,27621.12%
149.SevenoaksSouth East21,79321.16%
150.Oxford EastSouth East19,34721.21%
151.Worcestershire WestWest Midlands24,49921.29%
152.Jarrow and Gateshead EastNorth East17,26821.32%
153.Cornwall South EastSouth West22,31921.36%
154.Broadland and FakenhamEast of England22,75921.55%
155.WatfordEast of England11,71521.56%
156.Dorset NorthSouth West23,19521.69%
157.PooleSouth West21,20521.73%
158.Bournemouth EastSouth West19,53921.74%
159.Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestScotland19,01321.76%
160.Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthScotland20,06421.77%
161.Bournemouth WestSouth West19,90921.79%
162.Chester South and EddisburyNorth West24,25721.79%
163.Hemel HempsteadEast of England21,39421.80%
164.Skipton and RiponYorkshire and the Humber24,78221.83%
165.SpelthorneSouth East21,64221.86%
166.Norwich SouthEast of England22,61322.04%
167.MonmouthshireWales22,49722.05%
168.MacclesfieldNorth West22,60822.09%
169.Arbroath and Broughty FerryScotland22,38222.26%
170.South ShieldsNorth East18,56722.28%
171.St Austell and NewquaySouth West24,65622.37%
172.Poplar and LimehouseLondon23,16722.42%
173.HexhamNorth East24,23522.46%
174.Swansea WestWales19,87522.48%
175.FalkirkScotland21,90622.48%
176.Aberdeen NorthScotland22,64122.58%
177.HuntingdonEast of England25,45322.60%
178.Solihull West and ShirleyWest Midlands22,69722.62%
179.MidlothianScotland16,64022.68%
180.Weston-Super-MareSouth West20,82822.70%
181.StockportNorth West20,99422.81%
182.Kilmarnock and LoudounScotland21,77222.85%
183.EasingtonNorth East16,98422.92%
184.Glenrothes and Mid FifeScotland19,04522.93%
185.Beckenham and PengeLondon14,46123.00%
186.Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyScotland14,07423.02%
187.Worthing WestSouth East24,22023.04%
188.Penistone and StocksbridgeYorkshire and the Humber18,63423.07%
189.Derbyshire DalesEast Midlands24,94023.12%
190.Leeds North EastYorkshire and the Humber23,35923.13%
191.Folkestone and HytheSouth East20,74623.16%
192.Wythenshawe and Sale EastNorth West20,74423.17%
193.Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeScotland18,85723.20%
194.Cumbernauld and KirkintillochScotland22,39323.22%
195.Hinckley and BosworthEast Midlands22,85123.23%
196.Hamilton and Clyde ValleyScotland18,78823.26%
197.Penrith and SolwayNorth West26,02023.28%
198.Mitcham and MordenLondon24,07923.32%
199.Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyWales19,63923.33%
200.Cardiff South and PenarthWales23,50223.33%
201.St Helens NorthNorth West22,20223.34%
202.Rutland and StamfordEast Midlands25,53723.35%
203.Glasgow SouthScotland20,52723.43%
204.Sussex WealdSouth East23,16423.44%
205.Cardiff EastWales21,95323.46%
206.Alloa and GrangemouthScotland21,62423.48%
207.Leeds North WestYorkshire and the Humber15,09923.53%
208.Sheffield HeeleyYorkshire and the Humber21,54923.58%
209.OrpingtonLondon23,16323.66%
210.RutherglenScotland17,60123.66%
211.Aberdeen SouthScotland17,32523.67%
212.Ealing NorthLondon23,15223.74%
213.BassetlawEast Midlands22,73123.84%
214.Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)Scotland5,89423.87%
215.Harwich and Essex NorthEast of England25,86723.91%
216.Southgate and Wood GreenLondon25,22323.93%
217.East LothianScotland14,47823.93%
218.Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardEast of England23,13123.96%
219.Bedfordshire MidEast of England24,61423.98%
220.Bedfordshire NorthEast of England26,95723.98%
221.Queens Park and Maida ValeLondon21,50924.01%
222.RochdaleNorth West18,21124.02%
223.Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonSouth East25,66724.05%
224.Neath and Swansea EastWales19,25324.10%
225.ChristchurchSouth West25,03424.12%
226.Sutton ColdfieldWest Midlands25,24624.12%
227.Bexhill and BattleSouth East24,05824.19%
228.Hereford and Herefordshire SouthWest Midlands22,38524.19%
229.Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareWales20,85824.19%
230.Southend West and LeighEast of England24,91824.23%
231.New Forest WestSouth East24,40324.25%
232.Dorset SouthSouth West25,58124.26%
233.AshfordSouth East23,58324.27%
234.Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeYorkshire and the Humber20,54824.29%
235.York CentralYorkshire and the Humber24,34124.29%
236.SouthportNorth West18,87524.30%
237.Islington NorthLondon26,18824.34%
238.Dunbartonshire WestScotland21,21424.40%
239.Meriden and Solihull EastWest Midlands23,82524.42%
240.Cambridgeshire North WestEast of England23,02824.48%
241.Herefordshire NorthWest Midlands26,68024.52%
242.RugbyWest Midlands25,07224.52%
243.Hull West and HaltempriceYorkshire and the Humber13,84924.56%
244.Cardiff WestWales23,30224.56%
245.Birmingham YardleyWest Midlands20,60624.59%
246.Aberafan MaestegWales21,86424.61%
247.ShrewsburyWest Midlands19,88024.64%
248.Suffolk SouthEast of England24,73424.68%
249.Brent WestLondon21,38424.69%
250.CongletonNorth West24,68624.78%
251.AshfieldEast Midlands15,94824.79%
252.HartlepoolNorth East13,76824.79%
253.Nottingham SouthEast Midlands21,24924.84%
254.Northampton SouthEast Midlands24,72124.92%
255.Derbyshire MidEast Midlands25,76424.97%
256.Ealing SouthallLondon25,47424.98%
257.New Forest EastSouth East25,37924.99%
258.Honiton and SidmouthSouth West28,87524.99%
259.Shropshire SouthWest Midlands28,88325.01%
260.Thirsk and MaltonYorkshire and the Humber26,12225.02%
261.Faversham and Mid KentSouth East24,17625.07%
262.Rochester and StroodSouth East22,92825.08%
263.Devon South WestSouth West28,29525.22%
264.PrestonNorth West21,78425.26%
265.Swindon NorthSouth West23,97525.30%
266.Birmingham Selly OakWest Midlands23,91825.39%
267.Manchester WithingtonNorth West25,29725.40%
268.Richmond and NorthallertonYorkshire and the Humber26,38625.43%
269.BromsgroveWest Midlands27,62925.45%
270.Dundee CentralScotland23,76125.47%
271.Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendNorth East25,44925.47%
272.Shropshire NorthWest Midlands26,79025.63%
273.SalfordNorth West21,40625.63%
274.Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthEast of England25,85725.65%
275.Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth East19,29925.67%
276.DaventryEast Midlands29,26125.69%
277.Camborne and RedruthSouth West23,10125.69%
278.Bristol EastSouth West28,44025.72%
279.Wiltshire EastSouth West25,20125.72%
280.Edmonton and Winchmore HillLondon24,82625.73%
281.Barnsley SouthYorkshire and the Humber14,37325.74%
282.Pendle and ClitheroeNorth West24,05725.75%
283.Filton and Bradley StokeSouth West21,11025.77%
284.StaffordWest Midlands26,45925.78%
285.Altrincham and Sale WestNorth West20,27525.81%
286.Hove and PortsladeSouth East29,14525.84%
287.Beverley and HoldernessYorkshire and the Humber25,60025.87%
288.Portsmouth SouthSouth East17,65025.91%
289.Ribble ValleyNorth West27,08225.92%
290.PontypriddWales20,61525.93%
291.Ellesmere Port and BromboroughNorth West23,45625.94%
292.Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughYorkshire and the Humber21,26825.97%
293.Barnsley NorthYorkshire and the Humber15,55325.97%
294.SelbyYorkshire and the Humber27,41025.98%
295.SloughSouth East23,69126.00%
296.Northamptonshire SouthEast Midlands29,06526.03%
297.Dwyfor MeirionnyddWales23,03126.03%
298.Leeds Central and HeadingleyYorkshire and the Humber22,81226.12%
299.Derbyshire North EastEast Midlands25,85726.18%
300.Leyton and WansteadLondon25,61426.21%
301.St Helens South and WhistonNorth West23,80726.22%
302.Ossett and Denby DaleYorkshire and the Humber23,77726.23%
303.SmethwickWest Midlands21,49826.24%
304.TonbridgeSouth East28,57226.24%
305.Lewisham EastLondon24,60826.27%
306.Southend East and RochfordEast of England22,68826.29%
307.WiganNorth West18,61426.39%
308.Houghton and Sunderland SouthNorth East15,09426.39%
309.Ayrshire North and ArranScotland21,26926.47%
310.HavantSouth East24,34326.48%
311.StevenageEast of England21,19626.50%
312.Waveney ValleyEast of England27,20226.52%
313.Harrow WestLondon22,33026.57%
314.Bristol SouthSouth West21,90526.58%
315.Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonNorth West23,09526.70%
316.Erith and ThamesmeadLondon23,02226.72%
317.NewarkEast Midlands29,63726.75%
318.LichfieldWest Midlands28,11026.79%
319.KetteringEast Midlands27,89226.80%
320.Droitwich and EveshamWest Midlands28,27426.83%
321.Epping ForestEast of England26,97726.83%
322.RotherhamYorkshire and the Humber14,98226.85%
323.Dover and DealSouth East26,19026.89%
324.Holborn and St PancrasLondon24,06426.91%
325.Portsmouth NorthSouth East24,75326.96%
326.Hull North and CottinghamYorkshire and the Humber18,04426.97%
327.Leeds SouthYorkshire and the Humber23,34126.98%
328.Norfolk MidEast of England26,51226.99%
329.Rhondda and OgmoreWales22,98027.00%
330.HertsmereEast of England28,37027.01%
331.Blyth and AshingtonNorth East17,73927.03%
332.DartfordSouth East25,16227.06%
333.Leicestershire MidEast Midlands29,92627.11%
334.Stretford and UrmstonNorth West27,22627.19%
335.Normanton and HemsworthYorkshire and the Humber15,32127.21%
336.Great Grimsby and CleethorpesYorkshire and the Humber21,12627.28%
337.Derbyshire SouthEast Midlands25,85427.39%
338.Plymouth Moor ViewSouth West26,38027.39%
339.Bexleyheath and CrayfordLondon25,91827.40%
340.Brent EastLondon24,12827.41%
341.Gillingham and RainhamSouth East25,67027.43%
342.FyldeNorth West28,51327.44%
343.Brentwood and OngarEast of England29,02327.48%
344.Sherwood ForestEast Midlands28,71927.56%
345.GloucesterSouth West23,96727.57%
346.Burton and UttoxeterWest Midlands26,87927.57%
347.Renfrewshire EastScotland20,70327.60%
348.GosportSouth East26,75327.61%
349.Leicestershire North WestEast Midlands27,93727.61%
350.BroxbourneEast of England26,33527.62%
351.Suffolk WestEast of England27,27627.64%
352.Bradford EastYorkshire and the Humber23,80327.65%
353.Spen ValleyYorkshire and the Humber19,13127.68%
354.Sefton CentralNorth West26,22527.70%
355.Milton Keynes CentralSouth East19,54627.72%
356.Melton and SystonEast Midlands26,54727.77%
357.Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest Midlands22,95627.80%
358.Rother ValleyYorkshire and the Humber18,78027.80%
359.Old Bexley and SidcupLondon28,85527.82%
360.Wellingborough and RushdenEast Midlands26,19327.84%
361.Gordon and BuchanScotland16,47327.84%
362.CaerphillyWales19,46027.87%
363.Bolton South and WalkdenNorth West23,19527.89%
364.LowestoftEast of England25,31527.89%
365.Truro and FalmouthSouth West19,86127.91%
366.GainsboroughEast Midlands27,48027.97%
367.Southampton TestSouth East18,80727.99%
368.Blackley and Middleton SouthNorth West21,02728.00%
369.StourbridgeWest Midlands25,93728.00%
370.BirkenheadNorth West28,99428.01%
371.Durham NorthNorth East17,83928.07%
372.Lewisham West and Dulwich EastLondon25,96628.09%
373.TelfordWest Midlands23,12828.09%
374.Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestNorth East27,09028.14%
375.Stoke-on-Trent SouthWest Midlands26,33928.15%
376.ChesterfieldEast Midlands14,18628.18%
377.Birmingham EdgbastonWest Midlands20,55228.20%
378.NuneatonWest Midlands25,52828.25%
379.Dewsbury and BatleyYorkshire and the Humber26,08528.29%
380.Washington and Gateshead SouthNorth East16,02328.31%
381.Wrekin, TheWest Midlands29,71728.34%
382.TorfaenWales16,45928.35%
383.WithamEast of England29,56328.37%
384.GraveshamSouth East26,99628.38%
385.Bristol North WestSouth West23,81228.38%
386.Grantham and BourneEast Midlands27,74528.40%
387.WycombeSouth East14,90328.40%
388.Sunderland CentralNorth East15,31128.40%
389.Nottingham EastEast Midlands25,45428.40%
390.Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenSouth East22,33528.43%
391.Herne Bay and SandwichSouth East29,00828.46%
392.South RibbleNorth West22,53628.48%
393.Leicestershire SouthEast Midlands31,20928.48%
394.Wyre ForestWest Midlands28,87928.56%
395.Wakefield and RothwellYorkshire and the Humber16,66128.59%
396.Goole and PocklingtonYorkshire and the Humber28,61028.67%
397.Basildon and BillericayEast of England26,92028.73%
398.Scarborough and WhitbyYorkshire and the Humber24,55528.73%
399.Amber ValleyEast Midlands26,24328.77%
400.Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyYorkshire and the Humber12,96028.78%

View Liberal Democrat held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

Liberal Democrat Target Seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the list of Liberal Democrat target seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Liberal Democrat held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over LDSwing Needed
1.Caithness Sutherland and RossHighlands and Islands2,5913.51%
2.Argyll and ButeHighlands and Islands9,73414.50%
3.Strathkelvin and BearsdenWest Scotland14,38915.56%
4.Skye, Lochaber and BadenochHighlands and Islands17,41420.18%
5.Aberdeen CentralNorth East Scotland12,80020.23%
6.DunfermlineMid Scotland and Fife16,85220.58%
7.Inverness and NairnHighlands and Islands18,90121.40%
8.Edinburgh CentralLothian13,72121.55%
9.Edinburgh Northern and LeithLothian20,40821.79%
10.Clackmannanshire and DunblaneMid Scotland and Fife15,31022.20%
11.LinlithgowLothian20,56722.32%
12.Glasgow KelvinGlasgow13,55822.47%
13.Aberdeen DonsideNorth East Scotland16,35222.77%
14.Cunninghame SouthWest Scotland14,49324.06%
15.Midlothian South, Tweeddale and LauderdaleSouth Scotland17,19224.09%
16.Edinburgh EasternLothian20,62324.32%
17.Renfrewshire North and WestWest Scotland16,77124.79%
18.Mid Fife and GlenrothesMid Scotland and Fife16,32624.99%
19.Almond ValleyLothian21,07425.22%
20.Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)Highlands and Islands7,10125.23%

View Liberal Democrat held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

Liberal Democrat Target Seats for the 2026 Senedd Election

Below is the list of Liberal Democrat target seats for the 2026 Senedd election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Liberal Democrat held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over LDSwing Needed
1.Brecon and RadnorshireMid and West Wales3,8205.95%
2.Cardiff CentralSouth Wales Central7,64013.39%
3.MontgomeryshireMid and West Wales7,80615.62%
4.IslwynSouth Wales East9,48619.37%
5.Swansea WestSouth Wales West9,48119.76%
6.PontypriddSouth Wales Central10,88320.16%
7.AberavonSouth Wales West9,55221.54%
8.TorfaenSouth Wales East10,39221.69%
9.NeathSouth Wales West11,27121.94%
10.Dwyfor MeirionnyddMid and West Wales10,57422.20%
11.CeredigionMid and West Wales13,71922.30%
12.Carmarthen East and DinefwrMid and West Wales14,28622.47%
13.Cardiff South and PenarthSouth Wales Central16,75123.02%
14.Cardiff WestSouth Wales Central16,86223.08%
15.Blaenau GwentSouth Wales East9,89323.76%

View Liberal Democrat held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.

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