Conservative Target Seats

Below are lists of Conservative target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.

Conservative Target Seats 2024

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2024 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over CONSwing Needed
1.Warrington SouthNorth West650.06%
2.Coventry North WestWest Midlands2080.22%
3.Kensington and BayswaterLondon3900.36%
4.Alyn and DeesideWales4110.39%
5.Wirral WestNorth West4550.41%
6.Beckenham and PengeLondon6310.52%
7.Heywood and Middleton NorthNorth West6800.80%
8.Dagenham and RainhamLondon7060.80%
9.Coventry SouthWest Midlands8080.86%
10.Warwick and LeamingtonWest Midlands1,1691.12%
11.BedfordEast of England1,1131.19%
12.Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyYorkshire and the Humber1,0821.31%
13.Doncaster CentralYorkshire and the Humber1,2711.38%
14.Ceredigion PreseliWales1,4431.40%
15.Rawmarsh and ConisbroughYorkshire and the Humber1,2571.55%
16.ChesterfieldEast Midlands1,4511.61%
17.Oldham East and SaddleworthNorth West1,4991.62%
18.Warrington NorthNorth West1,5131.63%
19.CanterburySouth East2,1601.89%
20.HalifaxYorkshire and the Humber1,9021.99%
21.Newport West and IslwynWales2,0012.06%
22.Perth and Kinross-shireScotland2,3642.09%
23.Cramlington and KillingworthNorth East2,1572.24%
24.Ayr, Carrick and CumnockScotland2,3292.50%
25.Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyScotland2,9062.56%
26.Doncaster NorthYorkshire and the Humber2,0702.58%
27.Nottingham North and KimberleyEast Midlands2,4902.89%
28.GowerWales3,1812.93%
29.Leeds EastYorkshire and the Humber2,7233.06%
30.Leeds West and PudseyYorkshire and the Humber2,9633.09%
31.Wolverhampton South EastWest Midlands2,3733.10%
32.TynemouthNorth East3,5123.26%
33.Bradford SouthYorkshire and the Humber2,7293.34%
34.Croydon EastLondon3,4133.37%
35.Sunderland CentralNorth East2,9643.41%
36.Stalybridge and HydeNorth West2,9463.48%
37.East LothianScotland3,7153.62%
38.Houghton and Sunderland SouthNorth East3,2713.65%
39.Hull EastYorkshire and the Humber2,4953.67%
40.RotherhamYorkshire and the Humber3,2973.79%
41.PutneyLondon4,4163.98%
42.Birmingham ErdingtonWest Midlands3,3053.98%
43.Worsley and EcclesNorth West3,9614.00%
44.Normanton and HemsworthYorkshire and the Humber3,5204.06%
45.LlanelliWales3,7934.32%
46.HartlepoolNorth East3,5954.38%
47.Durham, City ofNorth East4,6574.54%
48.Blaydon and ConsettNorth East4,2854.56%
49.Stockton NorthNorth East3,9724.61%
50.Washington and Gateshead SouthNorth East3,9384.61%
51.Durham NorthNorth East4,4244.63%
52.TorfaenWales4,1104.72%
53.Argyll, Bute and Lochaber SouthScotland4,8974.83%
54.Renfrewshire EastScotland5,4264.90%
55.Plymouth Sutton and DevonportSouth West5,1225.20%
56.Angus and Perthshire GlensScotland6,0055.31%
57.St AlbansEast of England5,9055.34%
58.Aberdeen SouthScotland5,4635.45%
59.BatterseaLondon6,0265.49%
60.MakerfieldNorth West4,9555.49%
61.Sheffield South EastYorkshire and the Humber5,2145.56%
62.Bristol North EastSouth West5,4645.59%
63.Newport EastWales5,2395.64%
64.Portsmouth SouthSouth East5,3635.65%
65.Ashton-under-LyneNorth West4,6895.67%
66.Ayrshire CentralScotland5,3045.70%
67.Chester North and NestonNorth West6,3915.93%
68.Runcorn and HelsbyNorth West5,7795.97%
69.Bristol North WestSouth West7,2356.19%
70.Leicester EastEast Midlands5,9996.22%
71.Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNorth East6,8236.30%
72.Leicester WestEast Midlands4,8826.32%
73.Richmond ParkLondon7,7256.54%
74.Hull North and CottinghamYorkshire and the Humber5,9226.59%
75.Luton South and Bedfordshire SouthEast of England6,0666.73%
76.Southampton TestSouth East6,2136.90%
77.Cardiff NorthWales7,5796.93%
78.Gateshead Central and WhickhamNorth East5,9117.03%
79.Derby SouthEast Midlands6,0197.09%
80.Blyth and AshingtonNorth East6,1187.12%
81.Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyScotland6,6407.25%
82.Barnsley NorthYorkshire and the Humber6,4787.28%
83.Stirling and StrathallanScotland8,5567.40%
84.Sheffield HallamYorkshire and the Humber5,5697.41%
85.WiganNorth West6,7287.47%
86.HuddersfieldYorkshire and the Humber7,4417.54%
87.CaerphillyWales6,9017.66%
88.Lancashire WestNorth West8,3367.91%
89.Feltham and HestonLondon6,9937.97%
90.Reading CentralSouth East8,3518.10%
91.Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenSouth East8,2808.38%
92.Birmingham EdgbastonWest Midlands7,6918.43%
93.Coventry EastWest Midlands7,2888.54%
94.Enfield NorthLondon8,8538.71%
95.Ilford NorthLondon9,0308.72%
96.Ayrshire North and ArranScotland8,5218.85%
97.Hamilton and Clyde ValleyScotland8,5288.99%
98.Oxford West and AbingdonSouth East9,5779.05%
99.Sefton CentralNorth West10,4149.12%
100.South ShieldsNorth East8,3659.13%
101.Harrow WestLondon9,0989.14%
102.Bathgate and LinlithgowScotland8,6719.18%
103.Bristol SouthSouth West9,0779.40%
104.Neath and Swansea EastWales8,4519.43%
105.Barnsley SouthYorkshire and the Humber7,1879.58%
106.RochdaleNorth West8,1099.64%
107.PontypriddWales8,7989.65%
108.Brent WestLondon9,4319.74%
109.Kingston and SurbitonLondon11,1749.76%
110.Dwyfor MeirionnyddWales9,8809.78%
111.Luton NorthEast of England8,7409.80%
112.EasingtonNorth East7,8529.85%
113.MidlothianScotland9,5669.92%
114.Cardiff WestWales10,54610.15%
115.Hammersmith and ChiswickLondon10,82310.16%
116.Arbroath and Broughty FerryScotland10,77710.34%
117.Hayes and HarlingtonLondon9,26110.53%
118.BathSouth West12,12510.66%
119.Brentford and IsleworthLondon11,36911.01%
120.Nottingham SouthEast Midlands10,04111.13%
121.TwickenhamLondon13,07411.20%
122.ExeterSouth West10,98811.30%
123.Swansea WestWales10,03711.35%
124.Dunfermline and DollarScotland11,10711.42%
125.Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)Scotland3,31511.45%
126.Edinburgh South WestScotland11,98211.49%
127.Wythenshawe and Sale EastNorth West10,39611.61%
128.Cardiff South and PenarthWales11,85111.76%
129.Birmingham Selly OakWest Midlands11,64512.04%
130.Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeScotland11,10112.19%
131.Ealing NorthLondon11,90812.21%
132.TootingLondon14,30712.23%
133.Hampstead and HighgateLondon14,04212.23%
134.Norwich SouthEast of England12,58312.26%
135.Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonNorth West11,12712.41%
136.Bolton South and WalkdenNorth West10,92912.42%
137.LivingstonScotland12,47512.66%
138.Inverness, Skye and Ross-shire WestScotland12,86512.67%
139.East Kilbride and StrathavenScotland13,26912.70%
140.Jarrow and Gateshead EastNorth East10,31712.74%
141.St Helens NorthNorth West12,20912.84%
142.FalkirkScotland12,57812.91%
143.StockportNorth West12,01213.05%
144.Edinburgh North and LeithScotland15,41113.09%
145.Kilmarnock and LoudounScotland12,65913.29%
146.Ealing Central and ActonLondon14,13313.34%
147.Sheffield HeeleyYorkshire and the Humber12,22013.37%
148.SmethwickWest Midlands10,97413.39%
149.Edmonton and Winchmore HillLondon13,06713.54%
150.RutherglenScotland12,66513.72%
151.PrestonNorth West11,85013.74%
152.Alloa and GrangemouthScotland12,72713.82%
153.Aberdeen NorthScotland14,21014.17%
154.York CentralYorkshire and the Humber14,34214.31%
155.Southgate and Wood GreenLondon15,41414.62%
156.SloughSouth East13,34714.65%
157.Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthScotland13,72214.67%
158.Edinburgh SouthScotland15,58614.70%
159.Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestScotland13,71114.80%
160.Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth East11,14114.82%
161.Edinburgh WestScotland11,11514.95%
162.Erith and ThamesmeadLondon12,98815.07%
163.Hove and PortsladeSouth East17,04415.11%
164.Aberafan MaestegWales13,45715.15%
165.Dewsbury and BatleyYorkshire and the Humber14,00915.19%
166.Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughYorkshire and the Humber12,59115.37%
167.Mitcham and MordenLondon15,87915.38%
168.Blackley and Middleton SouthNorth West11,55815.39%
169.Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyWales12,96915.40%
170.Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareWales13,41015.55%
171.Birmingham YardleyWest Midlands13,14115.68%
172.Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest Midlands12,95115.68%
173.Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthScotland14,56715.81%
174.Airdrie and ShottsScotland12,66715.85%
175.Leeds SouthYorkshire and the Humber13,88616.05%
176.Ellesmere Port and BromboroughNorth West14,57716.12%
177.Greenwich and WoolwichLondon15,28316.14%
178.Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossScotland11,35916.26%
179.Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestNorth East15,73116.34%
180.Stretford and UrmstonNorth West16,41716.40%
181.CambridgeEast of England16,25616.40%
182.Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkLondon15,06616.42%
183.Glasgow WestScotland15,71016.62%
184.Leeds North EastYorkshire and the Humber17,08916.92%
185.BarkingLondon13,99317.06%
186.SalfordNorth West14,24817.06%
187.Glenrothes and Mid FifeScotland14,43917.08%
188.Edinburgh East and MusselburghScotland18,23317.45%
189.Oxford EastSouth East15,95917.50%
190.Bristol EastSouth West19,39317.54%
191.Dunbartonshire WestScotland16,55717.76%
192.Glasgow SouthScotland17,28817.81%
193.Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendNorth East17,79317.81%
194.Ealing SouthallLondon18,26617.91%
195.Clapham and Brixton HillLondon17,44317.93%
196.Cardiff EastWales17,07918.25%
197.St Helens South and WhistonNorth West16,72018.42%
198.Cumbernauld and KirkintillochScotland17,84118.50%
199.Dunbartonshire MidScotland13,06118.85%
200.WallaseyNorth West19,42218.87%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over CONSwing Needed
1.AyrSouth Scotland1700.20%
2.Banffshire and Buchan CoastNorth East Scotland7721.17%
3.Aberdeen South and North KincardineNorth East Scotland1,6712.14%
4.Perthshire South and Kinross-shireMid Scotland and Fife1,9482.21%
5.Aberdeenshire EastNorth East Scotland1,8892.30%
6.MorayHighlands and Islands3,1643.85%
7.Angus North and MearnsNorth East Scotland3,5094.97%
8.Perthshire NorthMid Scotland and Fife4,0535.05%
9.Edinburgh PentlandsLothian3,8975.10%
10.ClydesdaleSouth Scotland4,5785.62%
11.Edinburgh CentralLothian4,7325.67%
12.Carrick, Cumnock and Doon ValleySouth Scotland4,3376.09%
13.Angus SouthNorth East Scotland6,1177.92%
14.Midlothian South, Tweeddale and LauderdaleSouth Scotland6,8267.93%
15.StirlingMid Scotland and Fife6,8958.43%
16.Inverness and NairnHighlands and Islands9,1149.96%
17.Aberdeen CentralNorth East Scotland6,59410.42%
18.Cunninghame NorthWest Scotland7,77610.46%
19.Clackmannanshire and DunblaneMid Scotland and Fife7,55110.80%
20.Renfrewshire North and WestWest Scotland8,97011.75%
21.Strathkelvin and BearsdenWest Scotland11,48412.42%
22.Aberdeen DonsideNorth East Scotland9,02612.57%
23.Argyll and ButeHighlands and Islands8,96313.35%
24.Falkirk EastCentral Scotland10,79913.90%
25.LinlithgowLothian13,22114.10%
26.Cunninghame SouthWest Scotland8,58714.26%
27.East LothianSouth Scotland8,49815.99%
28.Hamilton, Larkhall and StonehouseCentral Scotland10,42916.11%
29.Kilmarnock and Irvine ValleySouth Scotland13,12316.15%
30.DunfermlineMid Scotland and Fife13,73416.77%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2026 Senedd Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Senedd election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over CONSwing Needed
1.WrexhamNorth Wales1,3502.99%
2.Vale of GlamorganSouth Wales Central3,2703.81%
3.Clwyd SouthNorth Wales2,9136.02%
4.Newport WestSouth Wales East3,9066.60%
5.BridgendSouth Wales West4,0646.90%
6.DelynNorth Wales3,7117.02%
7.GowerSouth Wales West4,7957.23%
8.Newport EastSouth Wales East3,5847.74%
9.Cardiff NorthSouth Wales Central6,5938.11%
10.Alyn and DeesideNorth Wales4,3788.47%
11.PontypriddSouth Wales Central5,85310.62%
12.TorfaenSouth Wales East5,32111.11%
13.Carmarthen East and DinefwrMid and West Wales7,51011.29%
14.IslwynSouth Wales East6,06812.39%
15.Swansea WestSouth Wales West6,52113.59%
16.NeathSouth Wales West7,55913.70%
17.CaerphillySouth Wales East8,27614.31%
18.Cardiff South and PenarthSouth Wales Central10,60614.57%
19.LlanelliMid and West Wales8,98314.86%
20.Dwyfor MeirionnyddMid and West Wales7,09614.90%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.

2024 General Election
Latest Posts
2024 General Election Confirmed for 4th July
posted 22 May 2024, 17:45
Seat By Seat Prediction
posted 12 May 2024, 10:15
Website Updates
posted 27 Apr 2024, 19:45