Conservative Target Seats

Below are lists of Conservative target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.

Conservative Target Seats 2029

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2029 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over CONSwing Needed
1.HendonLondon150.02%
2.PooleSouth West180.02%
3.Cambridgeshire North WestEast of England390.04%
4.PeterboroughEast of England1180.14%
5.Chelsea and FulhamLondon1520.16%
6.Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastNorth East2140.28%
7.Forest of DeanSouth West2780.29%
8.Derbyshire DalesEast Midlands3500.34%
9.Sittingbourne and SheppeySouth East3550.43%
10.Ely and Cambridgeshire EastEast of England4950.47%
11.Hampshire North EastSouth East6340.57%
12.Somerset NorthSouth West6390.59%
13.AylesburySouth East6300.63%
14.Uxbridge and Ruislip SouthLondon5870.64%
15.Norfolk South WestEast of England6300.71%
16.Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardEast of England6670.72%
17.Stoke-on-Trent SouthWest Midlands6270.77%
18.Ribble ValleyNorth West8560.82%
19.LichfieldWest Midlands8100.82%
20.BracknellSouth East7840.89%
21.Earley and WoodleySouth East8480.92%
22.RedditchWest Midlands7890.93%
23.Portsmouth NorthSouth East7800.94%
24.Pendle and ClitheroeNorth West9020.96%
25.Ynys MonWales6370.98%
26.Leicestershire North WestEast Midlands1,0121.04%
27.Dorset SouthSouth West1,0481.07%
28.Moray West, Nairn and StrathspeyScotland1,0011.08%
29.Suffolk CoastalEast of England1,0701.08%
30.Rother ValleyYorkshire and the Humber9981.20%
31.Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastScotland9421.23%
32.DartfordSouth East1,1921.34%
33.Dorset Mid and Poole NorthSouth West1,3521.37%
34.Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketEast of England1,4521.43%
35.Clwyd NorthWales1,1961.44%
36.Reading West and Mid BerkshireSouth East1,3611.46%
37.TamworthWest Midlands1,3821.58%
38.Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TaweWales1,4721.58%
39.EastleighSouth East1,5461.67%
40.Hertfordshire North EastEast of England1,9231.83%
41.AshfordSouth East1,7791.89%
42.Derbyshire North EastEast Midlands1,7531.91%
43.Cornwall South EastSouth West1,9111.94%
44.Derbyshire MidEast Midlands1,8781.98%
45.Pembrokeshire Mid and SouthWales1,8782.01%
46.Southend West and LeighEast of England1,9492.07%
47.HorshamSouth East2,5172.27%
48.HyndburnNorth West1,6872.32%
49.Newton AbbotSouth West2,2462.34%
50.Melksham and DevizesSouth West2,4012.34%
51.LowestoftEast of England2,0162.41%
52.NewburySouth East2,3772.43%
53.Bexleyheath and CrayfordLondon2,1142.43%
54.Chatham and AylesfordSouth East1,9982.45%
55.Burton and UttoxeterWest Midlands2,2662.48%
56.Boston and SkegnessEast Midlands2,0102.48%
57.Buckingham and BletchleySouth East2,4212.54%
58.St Austell and NewquaySouth West2,4702.64%
59.DudleyWest Midlands1,9002.65%
60.Warwickshire North and BedworthWest Midlands2,1982.68%
61.DarlingtonNorth East2,2982.71%
62.Norfolk NorthEast of England2,5852.75%
63.Thornbury and YateSouth West3,0142.82%
64.Norfolk SouthEast of England2,8262.85%
65.Chipping BarnetLondon2,9142.86%
66.HarlowEast of England2,5042.89%
67.MaidenheadSouth East2,9632.94%
68.Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeYorkshire and the Humber2,3112.95%
69.GraveshamSouth East2,7123.14%
70.MonmouthshireWales3,3383.28%
71.CongletonNorth West3,3873.38%
72.BanburySouth East3,2563.38%
73.Epsom and EwellSouth East3,6863.38%
74.Rochester and StroodSouth East2,9303.44%
75.Cities of London and WestminsterLondon2,7083.45%
76.Kensington and BayswaterLondon2,9033.46%
77.HexhamNorth East3,7133.58%
78.Cannock ChaseWest Midlands3,1253.64%
79.Tiverton and MineheadSouth West3,5073.69%
80.GloucesterSouth West3,4313.75%
81.KetteringEast Midlands3,8203.80%
82.StourbridgeWest Midlands3,0733.85%
83.Worthing WestSouth East3,9493.87%
84.Welwyn HatfieldEast of England3,7993.92%
85.Sutton and CheamLondon3,8013.99%
86.Altrincham and Sale WestNorth West4,1744.06%
87.Bournemouth WestSouth West3,2244.09%
88.Perth and Kinross-shireScotland4,1274.12%
89.NuneatonWest Midlands3,4794.22%
90.Aberdeen SouthScotland3,9134.22%
91.MansfieldEast Midlands3,4854.24%
92.WitneySouth East4,3394.29%
93.Folkestone and HytheSouth East3,7294.31%
94.RedcarNorth East3,3234.35%
95.St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireEast of England4,6214.37%
96.Hertford and StortfordEast of England4,7484.40%
97.RugbyWest Midlands4,4284.52%
98.ScunthorpeYorkshire and the Humber3,5424.54%
99.Derbyshire SouthEast Midlands4,1684.56%
100.Brent WestLondon3,7934.58%
101.Vale of GlamorganWales4,2164.60%
102.Isle of Wight WestSouth East3,1774.63%
103.Northampton SouthEast Midlands4,0714.64%
104.Swindon NorthSouth West4,1034.65%
105.Finchley and Golders GreenLondon4,5814.65%
106.ChelmsfordEast of England4,7534.69%
107.Cotswolds SouthSouth West4,9734.76%
108.Gillingham and RainhamSouth East3,9724.83%
109.Clwyd EastWales4,6224.83%
110.Basildon South and Thurrock EastEast of England2,0194.86%
111.Bicester and WoodstockSouth East4,9584.94%
112.StaffordWest Midlands4,5954.99%
113.Chesham and AmershamSouth East5,4515.01%
114.Southend East and RochfordEast of England4,0275.08%
115.WycombeSouth East4,5915.14%
116.Angus and Perthshire GlensScotland4,8705.14%
117.Ossett and Denby DaleYorkshire and the Humber4,5425.18%
118.Northumberland NorthNorth East5,0675.19%
119.Weston-Super-MareSouth West4,4095.20%
120.Somerset North East and HanhamSouth West5,3195.20%
121.WatfordEast of England4,7235.31%
122.Tipton and WednesburyWest Midlands3,3855.31%
123.Penrith and SolwayNorth West5,2575.33%
124.Colne ValleyYorkshire and the Humber4,9635.37%
125.Dorking and HorleySouth East5,3915.39%
126.Hemel HempsteadEast of England4,8575.51%
127.Bolton WestNorth West4,9455.54%
128.Blackpool North and FleetwoodNorth West4,6475.56%
129.Sherwood ForestEast Midlands5,4435.59%
130.CarlisleNorth West5,2005.65%
131.HalesowenWest Midlands4,3645.66%
132.Didcot and WantageSouth East6,2335.69%
133.Waveney ValleyEast of England5,5945.70%
134.Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrWales4,9345.70%
135.BurnleyNorth West4,5405.72%
136.CrawleySouth East5,2355.73%
137.Frome and Somerset EastSouth West5,4155.80%
138.TorbaySouth West5,3495.80%
139.Herefordshire NorthWest Midlands5,8945.85%
140.AldershotSouth East5,6835.85%
141.LoughboroughEast Midlands4,9605.87%
142.Henley and ThameSouth East6,2675.89%
143.Surrey HeathSouth East5,6405.90%
144.Amber ValleyEast Midlands5,0215.90%
145.Milton Keynes NorthSouth East5,4305.91%
146.Bangor AberconwyWales4,9725.97%
147.Morecambe and LunesdaleNorth West5,8156.05%
148.Bournemouth EastSouth West5,4796.10%
149.Scarborough and WhitbyYorkshire and the Humber5,4086.11%
150.Wellingborough and RushdenEast Midlands5,4866.24%
151.Sussex MidSouth East6,6626.25%
152.Barrow and FurnessNorth West5,3246.30%
153.Rossendale and DarwenNorth West5,6286.31%
154.Corby and Northamptonshire EastEast Midlands6,3316.38%
155.Newcastle-under-LymeWest Midlands5,0696.40%
156.SouthportNorth West5,7896.42%
157.BassetlawEast Midlands5,7686.43%
158.RushcliffeEast Midlands7,4266.43%
159.TewkesburySouth West6,2626.45%
160.Plymouth Moor ViewSouth West5,6046.54%
161.Devon NorthSouth West6,7446.56%
162.Honiton and SidmouthSouth West6,7006.61%
163.BasingstokeSouth East6,4846.62%
164.Stratford-on-AvonWest Midlands7,1226.72%
165.ErewashEast Midlands5,8596.81%
166.HitchinEast of England7,1096.90%
167.Glastonbury and SomertonSouth West6,6116.94%
168.Ayr, Carrick and CumnockScotland5,6836.94%
169.Argyll, Bute and Lochaber SouthScotland6,2326.95%
170.South RibbleNorth West6,5016.96%
171.Stoke-on-Trent NorthWest Midlands5,0827.03%
172.Birmingham NorthfieldWest Midlands5,3897.16%
173.Great YarmouthEast of England4,3517.18%
174.Devon SouthSouth West7,1277.27%
175.CheltenhamSouth West7,2107.28%
176.CaerfyrddinWales6,6957.34%
177.Harrow WestLondon6,6427.34%
178.WrexhamWales5,9487.37%
179.Dorset WestSouth West7,7897.40%
180.BolsoverEast Midlands6,3237.45%
181.Spen ValleyYorkshire and the Humber6,2177.57%
182.Bury NorthNorth West6,9447.63%
183.Milton Keynes CentralSouth East7,2917.64%
184.Bolton North EastNorth West6,6537.67%
185.WokinghamSouth East8,3457.73%
186.WorcesterWest Midlands7,1167.73%
187.StevenageEast of England6,6187.75%
188.HalifaxYorkshire and the Humber6,2697.79%
189.Croydon EastLondon6,8257.79%
190.Walsall and BloxwichWest Midlands5,8357.84%
191.Harrogate and KnaresboroughYorkshire and the Humber8,2387.91%
192.Tunbridge WellsSouth East8,6878.01%
193.Southampton ItchenSouth East6,1058.02%
194.High PeakEast Midlands7,9088.04%
195.Truro and FalmouthSouth West8,1518.11%
196.Wolverhampton North EastWest Midlands5,4228.14%
197.Thanet EastSouth East6,9718.16%
198.Camborne and RedruthSouth West7,8068.17%
199.ChippenhamSouth West8,1388.22%
200.Bishop AucklandNorth East6,6728.25%
201.SloughSouth East7,2098.33%
202.IpswichEast of England7,4038.40%
203.Carshalton and WallingtonLondon7,9058.47%
204.MacclesfieldNorth West9,1208.64%
205.GuildfordSouth East8,4298.73%
206.BroxtoweEast Midlands8,4038.78%
207.ShipleyYorkshire and the Humber8,6038.91%
208.Luton South and Bedfordshire SouthEast of England6,8588.93%
209.Dover and DealSouth East8,5708.97%
210.Wolverhampton WestWest Midlands7,8689.01%
211.Hazel GroveNorth West8,3179.04%
212.Oldham East and SaddleworthNorth West7,2539.05%
213.Calder ValleyYorkshire and the Humber8,9919.06%
214.ClactonEast of England8,4059.14%
215.CanterburySouth East8,6539.16%
216.ColchesterEast of England8,2509.19%
217.York OuterYorkshire and the Humber9,3919.19%
218.Eltham and ChislehurstLondon8,4299.25%
219.Hastings and RyeSouth East8,6539.41%
220.Great Grimsby and CleethorpesYorkshire and the Humber7,0679.65%
221.Luton NorthEast of England7,5109.69%
222.Cambridgeshire SouthEast of England10,6419.69%
223.Worthing East and ShorehamSouth East9,5199.70%
224.Harpenden and BerkhamstedEast of England10,7089.85%
225.Filton and Bradley StokeSouth West10,0009.93%
226.Penistone and StocksbridgeYorkshire and the Humber8,7399.94%
227.Wirral WestNorth West9,99810.01%
228.Feltham and HestonLondon7,94410.21%
229.Crewe and NantwichNorth West9,72710.30%
230.StroudSouth West11,38810.31%
231.Cornwall NorthSouth West10,76710.34%
232.SelbyYorkshire and the Humber10,19510.36%
233.LincolnEast Midlands8,79310.43%
234.Leeds South West and MorleyYorkshire and the Humber8,42310.47%
235.Bradford SouthYorkshire and the Humber6,98010.56%
236.HuddersfieldYorkshire and the Humber8,54210.63%
237.ThurrockEast of England8,04110.70%
238.Swindon SouthSouth West9,60610.72%
239.Cardiff WestWales9,60710.73%
240.Cheshire MidNorth West8,92710.75%
241.Lancaster and WyreNorth West9,25310.76%
242.Birmingham Hall Green and MoseleyWest Midlands8,95310.76%
243.Northampton NorthEast Midlands9,01410.78%
244.Brentford and IsleworthLondon9,82410.85%
245.Derby NorthEast Midlands8,91510.89%
246.PrestonNorth West8,79410.99%
247.ShrewsburyWest Midlands11,35511.01%
248.Wells and Mendip HillsSouth West11,12111.04%
249.Bury SouthNorth West9,36111.09%
250.Esher and WaltonSouth East12,00311.14%
251.Birmingham EdgbastonWest Midlands8,36811.18%
252.Warrington SouthNorth West11,34011.41%
253.WimbledonLondon12,61011.47%
254.BedfordEast of England9,43011.60%
255.TelfordWest Midlands9,48411.64%
256.Heywood and Middleton NorthNorth West8,64611.64%
257.WokingSouth East11,24611.68%
258.ChichesterSouth East12,17211.72%
259.Ilford NorthLondon6,02811.73%
260.BridgendWales9,75211.79%
261.Cardiff NorthWales11,20711.80%
262.Norwich NorthEast of England10,85011.85%
263.Taunton and WellingtonSouth West11,93911.87%
264.LewesSouth East12,62411.87%
265.Brighton Kemptown and PeacehavenSouth East9,66311.88%
266.Oldham West, Chadderton and RoytonNorth West9,16611.88%
267.Coventry SouthWest Midlands10,20111.94%
268.Leeds North WestYorkshire and the Humber11,89611.95%
269.Stirling and StrathallanScotland7,38712.04%
270.CheadleNorth West12,23512.06%
271.Alyn and DeesideWales10,50312.10%
272.WinchesterSouth East13,82112.11%
273.Durham NorthNorth East10,07012.11%
274.Stockton NorthNorth East9,10012.17%
275.HartlepoolNorth East8,64712.18%
276.GedlingEast Midlands11,88112.19%
277.GowerWales11,56712.25%
278.Beckenham and PengeLondon12,90512.36%
279.Stoke-on-Trent CentralWest Midlands8,72912.37%
280.Leicester WestEast Midlands8,77712.40%
281.Dagenham and RainhamLondon9,64512.41%
282.Derby SouthEast Midlands9,31112.45%
283.YeovilSouth West12,26812.53%
284.Doncaster CentralYorkshire and the Humber9,55112.59%
285.Warwick and LeamingtonWest Midlands12,41212.61%
286.Ilford SouthLondon10,39512.62%
287.PutneyLondon12,48812.67%
288.Stalybridge and HydeNorth West9,44812.69%
289.BathSouth West12,22412.70%
290.Newport West and IslwynWales10,69912.75%
291.BatterseaLondon12,03912.79%
292.Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorNorth East10,19912.80%
293.Newport EastWales9,88312.82%
294.Wakefield and RothwellYorkshire and the Humber10,45112.85%
295.ChesterfieldEast Midlands10,82013.02%
296.Southampton TestSouth East9,33313.03%
297.Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull NorthWest Midlands6,02113.05%
298.West BromwichWest Midlands9,55413.09%
299.TorfaenWales9,43913.22%
300.CaerphillyWales10,15313.28%
301.Chester North and NestonNorth West11,87013.28%
302.Coventry North WestWest Midlands11,17413.29%
303.EastbourneSouth East12,20413.38%
304.Renfrewshire EastScotland13,44113.38%
305.Nottingham North and KimberleyEast Midlands9,69313.84%
306.Birmingham ErdingtonWest Midlands9,37213.86%
307.Sunderland CentralNorth East11,12113.92%
308.Reading CentralSouth East12,63713.95%
309.Bradford EastYorkshire and the Humber10,64814.31%
310.St IvesSouth West13,78614.33%
311.Hull West and HaltempriceYorkshire and the Humber10,95114.34%
312.Ayrshire CentralScotland11,94414.42%
313.Ealing NorthLondon12,51914.48%
314.Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastNorth East10,06414.62%
315.Enfield NorthLondon12,73614.64%
316.Ealing Central and ActonLondon13,99514.65%
317.Doncaster NorthYorkshire and the Humber9,12614.72%
318.Bolton South and WalkdenNorth West10,92314.79%
319.ExeterSouth West11,93714.85%
320.Leeds EastYorkshire and the Humber11,71214.87%
321.South ShieldsNorth East10,99414.93%
322.Birmingham Selly OakWest Midlands11,53715.01%
323.Dewsbury and BatleyYorkshire and the Humber11,45915.05%
324.Cramlington and KillingworthNorth East13,68215.07%
325.Edinburgh South WestScotland13,10515.08%
326.Bristol North EastSouth West12,78815.23%
327.Cardiff EastWales11,92015.23%
328.Cardiff South and PenarthWales11,96915.28%
329.Warrington NorthNorth West12,24415.29%
330.Edmonton and Winchmore HillLondon12,63215.39%
331.Lancashire WestNorth West13,62515.41%
332.Hampstead and HighgateLondon14,97015.42%
333.Shropshire NorthWest Midlands15,31115.44%
334.Bristol SouthSouth West13,57415.64%
335.Nottingham SouthEast Midlands10,29415.65%
336.Hayes and HarlingtonLondon12,03115.70%
337.Swansea WestWales11,22515.74%
338.Ashton-under-LyneNorth West11,20015.79%
339.PontypriddWales12,45015.81%
340.Worsley and EcclesNorth West13,48615.85%
341.TynemouthNorth East15,45515.96%
342.Poplar and LimehouseLondon13,79716.02%
343.Leeds West and PudseyYorkshire and the Humber12,39216.10%
344.Oxford West and AbingdonSouth East14,89416.19%
345.Blackpool SouthNorth West11,41216.22%
346.Neath and Swansea EastWales13,03216.23%
347.Pontefract, Castleford and KnottingleyYorkshire and the Humber11,68316.25%
348.Coventry EastWest Midlands12,06816.30%
349.BarkingLondon11,93316.36%
350.Aberdeen NorthScotland8,65216.37%
351.Leigh and AthertonNorth West13,48816.38%
352.Whitehaven and WorkingtonNorth West13,71816.39%
353.Plymouth Sutton and DevonportSouth West13,92216.54%
354.Hammersmith and ChiswickLondon15,29016.61%
355.Houghton and Sunderland SouthNorth East13,32316.64%
356.Richmond ParkLondon17,15516.65%
357.Wolverhampton South EastWest Midlands11,14616.69%
358.Bristol EastSouth West14,31316.71%
359.Southgate and Wood GreenLondon15,30016.75%
360.Ealing SouthallLondon15,79316.87%
361.Normanton and HemsworthYorkshire and the Humber12,28016.89%
362.Gateshead Central and WhickhamNorth East13,61716.93%
363.Portsmouth SouthSouth East13,21416.97%
364.Kingston and SurbitonLondon17,23517.01%
365.LlanelliWales8,47617.11%
366.Durham, City ofNorth East13,91017.12%
367.Blyth and AshingtonNorth East13,90917.21%
368.Brent EastLondon13,04717.26%
369.CambridgeEast of England14,54117.27%
370.Ayrshire North and ArranScotland10,86717.31%
371.Norwich SouthEast of England15,67817.38%
372.West Ham and BecktonLondon12,65317.41%
373.Sheffield South EastYorkshire and the Humber12,45817.41%
374.SmethwickWest Midlands12,31217.53%
375.Stretford and UrmstonNorth West16,15017.55%
376.Washington and Gateshead SouthNorth East13,02817.60%
377.Newcastle upon Tyne Central and WestNorth East14,64717.71%
378.Hull North and CottinghamYorkshire and the Humber13,58317.77%
379.BlackburnNorth West7,04417.77%
380.Leeds North EastYorkshire and the Humber16,08317.80%
381.Bristol North WestSouth West17,28517.83%
382.Arbroath and Broughty FerryScotland8,74017.86%
383.Rawmarsh and ConisbroughYorkshire and the Humber12,11617.87%
384.Blaydon and ConsettNorth East15,10817.89%
385.Leyton and WansteadLondon15,90918.19%
386.Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNorth East17,76218.27%
387.Ceredigion PreseliWales16,97518.33%
388.Sheffield HallamYorkshire and the Humber17,67018.37%
389.TootingLondon19,48718.40%
390.RochdaleNorth West8,75418.43%
391.WiganNorth West15,09118.45%
392.Stratford and BowLondon16,03118.45%
393.Runcorn and HelsbyNorth West15,60218.47%
394.Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkLondon13,97818.59%
395.Merthyr Tydfil and AberdareWales13,10418.61%
396.Croydon WestLondon14,22618.66%
397.East LothianScotland18,02018.73%
398.Oxford EastSouth East14,80218.81%
399.EasingtonNorth East13,02118.97%
400.St AlbansEast of England19,83419.21%
401.Birmingham YardleyWest Midlands7,64119.22%
402.StockportNorth West16,82019.25%
403.Sefton CentralNorth West18,28219.26%
404.Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughYorkshire and the Humber12,23219.35%
405.Dunbartonshire MidScotland19,89719.39%
406.Wythenshawe and Sale EastNorth West15,20419.43%
407.Hamilton and Clyde ValleyScotland16,43119.52%
408.Queens Park and Maida ValeLondon15,03819.61%
409.Dunfermline and DollarScotland17,03919.75%
410.Bathgate and LinlithgowScotland16,63019.77%
411.Hove and PortsladeSouth East20,57919.82%
412.TwickenhamLondon21,45720.00%
413.Streatham and Croydon NorthLondon17,90420.09%
414.Cowdenbeath and KirkcaldyScotland15,45920.12%
415.Leeds SouthYorkshire and the Humber12,94520.43%
416.Blaenau Gwent and RhymneyWales12,25120.47%
417.Erith and ThamesmeadLondon16,68220.66%
418.East HamLondon15,69420.71%
419.St Helens NorthNorth West16,77720.73%
420.Mitcham and MordenLondon18,76120.73%
421.AshfieldEast Midlands13,79120.77%
422.Edinburgh North and LeithScotland17,55120.78%
423.Sheffield HeeleyYorkshire and the Humber15,98820.79%
424.St Helens South and WhistonNorth West15,86220.85%
425.Holborn and St PancrasLondon16,10820.86%
426.Aberafan MaestegWales14,93520.89%
427.Newcastle upon Tyne East and WallsendNorth East17,67820.89%
428.MakerfieldNorth West13,82320.92%
429.Rhondda and OgmoreWales15,06821.04%
430.Barnsley NorthYorkshire and the Humber15,52721.04%
431.Jarrow and Gateshead EastNorth East15,50221.10%
432.Dwyfor MeirionnyddWales17,07621.14%
433.Alloa and GrangemouthScotland14,91221.33%
434.Leicester SouthEast Midlands9,91921.36%
435.Nottingham EastEast Midlands15,56921.39%
436.Gorton and DentonNorth West15,66721.43%
437.Bradford WestYorkshire and the Humber8,66921.47%
438.Hull EastYorkshire and the Humber10,33221.51%
439.Leeds Central and HeadingleyYorkshire and the Humber13,61621.55%
440.East Kilbride and StrathavenScotland19,13521.58%
441.Westmorland and LonsdaleNorth West21,47221.67%
442.Manchester CentralNorth West17,36121.85%
443.Blackley and Middleton SouthNorth West13,79122.00%
444.SalfordNorth West17,54922.10%
445.York CentralYorkshire and the Humber19,15422.11%
446.BirkenheadNorth West19,23022.29%
447.Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)Scotland6,04522.34%
448.Sheffield CentralYorkshire and the Humber14,23022.37%
449.Edinburgh SouthScotland20,97522.40%
450.Greenwich and WoolwichLondon19,13622.40%
451.Ellesmere Port and BromboroughNorth West18,97622.61%
452.Edinburgh WestScotland23,74822.63%
453.Islington South and FinsburyLondon19,36222.64%
454.Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossScotland20,87622.67%
455.MidlothianScotland18,23222.79%
456.Birmingham Perry BarrWest Midlands9,07622.87%
457.FalkirkScotland14,76722.92%
458.Down SouthNorthern Ireland19,65222.93%
459.WallaseyNorth West19,68723.03%
460.Manchester RusholmeNorth West13,37623.04%
461.Clapham and Brixton HillLondon19,80623.17%
462.Lewisham EastLondon19,24523.68%
463.Manchester WithingtonNorth West19,78623.71%
464.Brighton PavilionSouth East24,83423.71%
465.Barnsley SouthYorkshire and the Humber13,15223.96%
466.Inverclyde and Renfrewshire WestScotland16,06824.03%
467.Newry and ArmaghNorthern Ireland22,21624.18%
468.RutherglenScotland19,04024.18%
469.Kilmarnock and LoudounScotland15,52824.50%
470.Motherwell, Wishaw and CarlukeScotland16,75324.77%
471.Vauxhall and Camberwell GreenLondon18,71924.93%
472.Hornsey and Friern BarnetLondon24,52425.21%
473.LivingstonScotland14,85525.26%
474.Fife North EastScotland21,71825.41%
475.Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthScotland16,90225.46%
476.Hackney North and Stoke NewingtonLondon20,89825.51%
477.Liverpool GarstonNorth West21,56725.68%
478.Lewisham NorthLondon22,76625.77%
479.Lewisham West and Dulwich EastLondon23,92925.78%
480.TottenhamLondon20,74625.84%
481.Dulwich and West NorwoodLondon23,48325.87%
482.Tyrone WestNorthern Ireland22,62025.88%
483.Orkney and ShetlandScotland10,80626.12%
484.Glasgow WestScotland16,90126.20%
485.Widnes and HalewoodNorth West19,97726.21%
486.Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthScotland17,36426.25%
487.Airdrie and ShottsScotland17,17526.26%
488.Bethnal Green and StepneyLondon13,97626.34%
489.StrangfordNorthern Ireland15,41326.43%
490.PeckhamLondon20,53726.47%
491.Liverpool WavertreeNorth West21,19026.61%
492.Londonderry EastNorthern Ireland11,31926.99%
493.WalthamstowLondon24,81927.06%
494.Birmingham LadywoodWest Midlands13,34027.12%
495.Hackney South and ShoreditchLondon22,64827.16%
496.Edinburgh East and MusselburghScotland16,19227.38%
497.Bristol CentralSouth West22,54127.98%
498.Glasgow NorthScotland13,28928.07%
499.Inverness, Skye and Ross-shire WestScotland15,65728.09%
500.Glasgow SouthScotland16,07928.14%
501.Glasgow EastScotland13,83628.36%
502.Glasgow North EastScotland14,45728.81%
503.Liverpool RiversideNorth West18,88429.16%
504.Coatbridge and BellshillScotland17,90929.86%
505.Dunbartonshire WestScotland17,83829.88%
506.Cumbernauld and KirkintillochScotland16,57430.33%
507.Islington NorthLondon22,17030.45%
508.Glasgow South WestScotland14,16530.50%
509.Glenrothes and Mid FifeScotland14,02130.62%
510.Liverpool West DerbyNorth West23,73631.23%
511.KnowsleyNorth West22,74731.55%
512.BootleNorth West25,05532.22%
513.Liverpool WaltonNorth West24,75033.55%
514.Dundee CentralScotland13,97534.24%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over CONSwing Needed
1.AyrSouth Scotland1700.20%
2.Banffshire and Buchan CoastNorth East Scotland7721.17%
3.Aberdeen South and North KincardineNorth East Scotland1,6712.14%
4.Perthshire South and Kinross-shireMid Scotland and Fife1,9482.21%
5.Aberdeenshire EastNorth East Scotland1,8892.30%
6.MorayHighlands and Islands3,1643.85%
7.Angus North and MearnsNorth East Scotland3,5094.97%
8.Perthshire NorthMid Scotland and Fife4,0535.05%
9.Edinburgh PentlandsLothian3,8975.10%
10.ClydesdaleSouth Scotland4,5785.62%
11.Edinburgh CentralLothian4,7325.67%
12.Carrick, Cumnock and Doon ValleySouth Scotland4,3376.09%
13.Angus SouthNorth East Scotland6,1177.92%
14.Midlothian South, Tweeddale and LauderdaleSouth Scotland6,8267.93%
15.StirlingMid Scotland and Fife6,8958.43%
16.Inverness and NairnHighlands and Islands9,1149.96%
17.Aberdeen CentralNorth East Scotland6,59410.42%
18.Cunninghame NorthWest Scotland7,77610.46%
19.Clackmannanshire and DunblaneMid Scotland and Fife7,55110.80%
20.Renfrewshire North and WestWest Scotland8,97011.75%
21.Strathkelvin and BearsdenWest Scotland11,48412.42%
22.Aberdeen DonsideNorth East Scotland9,02612.57%
23.Argyll and ButeHighlands and Islands8,96313.35%
24.Falkirk EastCentral Scotland10,79913.90%
25.LinlithgowLothian13,22114.10%
26.Cunninghame SouthWest Scotland8,58714.26%
27.East LothianSouth Scotland8,49815.99%
28.Hamilton, Larkhall and StonehouseCentral Scotland10,42916.11%
29.Kilmarnock and Irvine ValleySouth Scotland13,12316.15%
30.DunfermlineMid Scotland and Fife13,73416.77%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2026 Senedd Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Senedd election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajority over CONSwing Needed
1.WrexhamNorth Wales1,3502.99%
2.Vale of GlamorganSouth Wales Central3,2703.81%
3.Clwyd SouthNorth Wales2,9136.02%
4.Newport WestSouth Wales East3,9066.60%
5.BridgendSouth Wales West4,0646.90%
6.DelynNorth Wales3,7117.02%
7.GowerSouth Wales West4,7957.23%
8.Newport EastSouth Wales East3,5847.74%
9.Cardiff NorthSouth Wales Central6,5938.11%
10.Alyn and DeesideNorth Wales4,3788.47%
11.PontypriddSouth Wales Central5,85310.62%
12.TorfaenSouth Wales East5,32111.11%
13.Carmarthen East and DinefwrMid and West Wales7,51011.29%
14.IslwynSouth Wales East6,06812.39%
15.Swansea WestSouth Wales West6,52113.59%
16.NeathSouth Wales West7,55913.70%
17.CaerphillySouth Wales East8,27614.31%
18.Cardiff South and PenarthSouth Wales Central10,60614.57%
19.LlanelliMid and West Wales8,98314.86%
20.Dwyfor MeirionnyddMid and West Wales7,09614.90%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Senedd election.

2029 General Election
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