Scottish Parliament Polling
On this page are the latest Scottish Parliament election polls for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages.
The below calculations are from the 2021 Scottish Parliament swingometer.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
SNP
short by
7
65 seats needed for a majority
Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2021 Scottish Parliament election polling average is calculated is available here.
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| SNP | 63 | 58 | 0 | -5 | -5 |
| Conservative | 31 | 32 | +4 | -3 | +1 |
| Labour | 24 | 27 | +3 | 0 | +3 |
| Green | 6 | 7 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| SNP | 46.50% | 41.00% | -5.50% | 59 | 56 | 0 | -3 | -3 |
| Conservative | 22.02% | 25.00% | +2.98% | 7 | 10 | +3 | 0 | +3 |
| Labour | 22.56% | 23.00% | +0.44% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 7.82% | 6.00% | -1.82% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Green | 0.58% | 3.00% | +2.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| SNP | 41.72% | 38.00% | -3.72% | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Conservative | 22.93% | 26.00% | +3.07% | 24 | 22 | +1 | -3 | -2 |
| Labour | 19.07% | 22.00% | +2.93% | 21 | 24 | +3 | 0 | +3 |
| Green | 6.58% | 7.00% | +0.42% | 6 | 7 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Liberal Democrat | 5.22% | 6.00% | +0.78% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 2.03% | 1.00% | -1.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Here are the most recent 2021 Scottish Parliament election polls for the next Scottish Parliament election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Scottish Parliament swingometer.
Constituency Polls
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | GRN | Lead |
|---|
| | | | |
| 5 Dec 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,028 | 1.00 | 41 | 25 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 Nov 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,050 | - | 39 | 27 | 24 | 6 | - | 12 |
| 21 Oct 2018 | Survation / Daily Record | 1,017 | - | 38 | 26 | 25 | 9 | - | 12 |
| 5 Oct 2018 | Survation / SNP | 1,013 | - | 44 | 24 | 23 | 8 | - | 20 |
| 4 Oct 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,024 | - | 41 | 26 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 Oct 2018 | Survation / Sunday Post | 1,036 | - | 43 | 24 | 23 | 9 | - | 19 |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Survation | - | - | 43 | 24 | 21 | 9 | - | 19 |
| 14 Jun 2018 | Panelbase | 1,021 | - | 40 | 28 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 Jun 2018 | YouGov / The Times | 1,075 | - | 41 | 27 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 28 Mar 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,037 | - | 40 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 29 Jan 2018 | Survation / Daily Record | 1,019 | - | 42 | 25 | 25 | 6 | - | 17 |
| 17 Jan 2018 | YouGov / The Times | 1,002 | - | 38 | 26 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 Dec 2017 | Survation / Sunday Post | 1,006 | - | 39 | 24 | 28 | 7 | - | 11 |
| 30 Nov 2017 | Survation / Daily Record | 1,017 | - | 39 | 24 | 25 | 8 | - | 14 |
| 5 Oct 2017 | YouGov / The Times | 1,135 | - | 42 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 12 Sep 2017 | Survation / Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | - | 42 | 26 | 25 | 7 | - | 16 |
| 7 Sep 2017 | Panelbase / The Sunday Times | 1,021 | - | 42 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| 14 Mar 2017 | YouGov / The Times | 1,028 | - | 51 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 29 Nov 2016 | YouGov / The Times | 1,134 | - | 48 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 23 |
| 4 Oct 2016 | BMG Research | 1,010 | - | 51 | 21 | 18 | 7 | - | 30 |
| 31 Aug 2016 | YouGov / The Times | 1,039 | - | 52 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 31 |
| 28 Jun 2016 | Survation / Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | - | 50 | 21 | 18 | 8 | - | 29 |
Region Polls
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | SNP | CON | LAB | LD | GRN | UKIP | Lead |
|---|
| | | | | |
| 5 Dec 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,028 | 1.00 | 38 | 26 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 Nov 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,050 | - | 37 | 26 | 22 | 6 | 6 | - | 11 |
| 21 Oct 2018 | Survation / Daily Record | 1,017 | - | 32 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 9 | - | 9 |
| 5 Oct 2018 | Survation / SNP | 1,013 | - | 40 | 25 | 22 | 8 | 4 | - | 15 |
| 4 Oct 2018 | Panelbase / Sunday Times | 1,024 | - | 35 | 26 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 Oct 2018 | Survation / Sunday Post | 1,036 | - | 32 | 21 | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 Jul 2018 | Survation | - | - | 33 | 19 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 12 |
| 14 Jun 2018 | Panelbase | 1,021 | - | 36 | 26 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 Jun 2018 | YouGov / The Times | 1,075 | - | 32 | 26 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 6 |
| 29 Jan 2018 | Survation / Daily Record | 1,019 | - | 33 | 23 | 23 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 17 Jan 2018 | YouGov / The Times | 1,002 | - | 32 | 25 | 22 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 Dec 2017 | Survation / Sunday Post | 1,006 | - | 32 | 21 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 8 |
| 30 Nov 2017 | Survation / Daily Record | 1,017 | - | 33 | 22 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 Oct 2017 | YouGov / The Times | 1,135 | - | 35 | 23 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 Sep 2017 | Survation / Scottish Daily Mail | 1,016 | - | 31 | 21 | 25 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 Mar 2017 | YouGov / The Times | 1,028 | - | 40 | 25 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 15 |
| 29 Nov 2016 | YouGov / The Times | 1,134 | - | 39 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 Oct 2016 | BMG Research | 1,010 | - | 43 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 23 |
| 31 Aug 2016 | YouGov / The Times | 1,039 | - | 45 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 24 |
| 28 Jun 2016 | Survation / Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | - | 41 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 21 |
