Conservative Defence

Below are lists of Conservative marginal seats showing which constituencies won in the latest elections can be most easily lost.

Conservative Defence 2022

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2022 general election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing to Defeat
1.Southampton ItchenSouth East310.03%
2.Richmond ParkLondon450.04%
3.StirlingScotland1480.15%
4.St IvesSouth West3120.30%
5.PudseyYorkshire and the Humber3310.31%
6.Hastings and RyeSouth East3460.32%
7.Chipping BarnetLondon3530.32%
8.ThurrockEast of England3450.34%
9.Preseli PembrokeshireWales3140.37%
10.Calder ValleyYorkshire and the Humber6090.52%
11.Norwich NorthEast of England5070.55%
12.BroxtoweEast Midlands8630.78%
13.Stoke-on-Trent SouthWest Midlands6630.80%
14.TelfordWest Midlands7200.81%
15.Bolton WestNorth West9360.92%
16.AberconwyWales6350.99%
17.Northampton NorthEast Midlands8071.00%
18.HendonLondon1,0721.03%
19.MansfieldEast Midlands1,0571.05%
20.Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastNorth East1,0201.07%
21.Milton Keynes SouthSouth East1,7251.34%
22.Northampton SouthEast Midlands1,1591.41%
23.PendleNorth West1,2791.43%
24.Milton Keynes NorthSouth East1,9151.50%
25.Morecambe and LunesdaleNorth West1,3991.53%
26.Finchley and Golders GreenLondon1,6571.58%
27.Camborne and RedruthSouth West1,5771.63%
28.PutneyLondon1,5541.66%
29.Harrow EastLondon1,7571.73%
30.WatfordEast of England2,0921.78%
31.CopelandNorth West1,6951.97%
32.Morley and OutwoodYorkshire and the Humber2,1042.01%
33.Vale of GlamorganWales2,1902.04%
34.CorbyEast Midlands2,6902.24%
35.CheltenhamSouth West2,5692.25%
36.Swindon SouthSouth West2,4642.40%
37.WorcesterWest Midlands2,4902.42%
38.GordonScotland2,6072.43%
39.CrawleySouth East2,4572.44%
40.Blackpool North and CleveleysNorth West2,0232.47%
41.Chingford and Woodford GreenLondon2,4382.60%
42.Reading WestSouth East2,8762.78%
43.Derbyshire North EastEast Midlands2,8612.84%
44.Ayr, Carrick and CumnockScotland2,7743.00%
45.CarlisleNorth West2,5993.02%
46.SouthportNorth West2,9143.04%
47.Ochil and South PerthshireScotland3,3593.10%
48.Rossendale and DarwenNorth West3,2163.21%
49.AngusScotland2,6453.29%
50.Truro and FalmouthSouth West3,7923.35%
51.Scarborough and WhitbyYorkshire and the Humber3,4353.40%
52.Walsall NorthWest Midlands2,6013.41%
53.StevenageEast of England3,3843.43%
54.Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthWales3,1103.68%
55.Devon NorthSouth West4,3323.89%
56.LoughboroughEast Midlands4,2693.94%
57.Cities of London and WestminsterLondon3,1484.07%
58.Filton and Bradley StokeSouth West4,1824.12%
59.CheadleNorth West4,5074.13%
60.Clwyd WestWales3,4374.23%
61.MorayScotland4,1594.37%
62.ShipleyYorkshire and the Humber4,6814.38%
63.Renfrewshire EastScotland4,7124.38%
64.Banff and BuchanScotland3,6934.43%
65.ErewashEast Midlands4,5344.55%
66.Worthing East and ShorehamSouth East5,1064.81%
67.SherwoodEast Midlands5,1984.87%
68.LewesSouth East5,5085.08%
69.GloucesterSouth West5,5205.10%
70.NuneatonWest Midlands4,7395.14%
71.ColchesterEast of England5,6775.30%
72.Aberdeen SouthScotland4,7525.34%
73.St AlbansEast of England6,1095.36%
74.Uxbridge and Ruislip SouthLondon5,0345.39%
75.WimbledonLondon5,6225.46%
76.Dumfries and GallowayScotland5,6435.47%
77.Plymouth Moor ViewSouth West5,0195.53%
78.Shrewsbury and AtchamWest Midlands6,6275.69%
79.Rochford and Southend EastEast of England5,5485.87%
80.Halesowen and Rowley RegisWest Midlands5,2535.92%
81.Altrincham and Sale WestNorth West6,4266.09%
82.WycombeSouth East6,5786.15%
83.DoverSouth East6,4376.19%
84.WellsSouth West7,5826.23%
85.Hazel GroveNorth West5,5146.25%
86.Thanet SouthSouth East6,3876.42%
87.Devon EastSouth West8,0366.65%
88.South RibbleNorth West7,4216.77%
89.RushcliffeEast Midlands8,0106.87%
90.Cornwall NorthSouth West7,2007.07%
91.Welwyn HatfieldEast of England7,3697.13%
92.York OuterYorkshire and the Humber8,2897.22%
93.StaffordWest Midlands7,7297.44%
94.Swindon NorthSouth West8,3357.59%
95.KingswoodSouth West7,5007.69%
96.Aberdeenshire West and KincardineScotland7,9497.70%
97.HarlowEast of England7,0317.84%
98.MacclesfieldNorth West8,6087.93%
99.RugbyWest Midlands8,2128.00%
100.StourbridgeWest Midlands7,6548.12%
101.RedditchWest Midlands7,3638.14%
102.Bournemouth EastSouth West7,9378.16%
103.Elmet and RothwellYorkshire and the Humber9,8058.23%
104.MonmouthWales8,2068.25%
105.BasingstokeSouth East9,4668.46%
106.Bournemouth WestSouth West7,7118.66%
107.WinchesterSouth East9,9998.75%
108.WaveneyEast of England9,2158.75%
109.Cannock ChaseWest Midlands8,3918.76%
110.Warwickshire NorthWest Midlands8,5109.02%
111.Great YarmouthEast of England7,9739.03%
112.Hemel HempsteadEast of England9,4459.03%
113.Amber ValleyEast Midlands8,3009.06%
114.Rochester and StroodSouth East9,8509.16%
115.Forest of DeanSouth West9,5029.18%
116.Croydon SouthLondon11,4069.31%
117.Somerset North EastSouth West10,2359.47%
118.GraveshamSouth East9,3479.54%
119.Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleScotland9,4419.64%
120.Gillingham and RainhamSouth East9,4309.65%
121.Wrekin, TheWest Midlands9,5649.66%
122.Chelsea and FulhamLondon8,1889.72%
123.Brecon and RadnorshireWales8,0389.72%
124.HexhamNorth East9,2369.99%
125.Bexleyheath and CrayfordLondon9,07310.04%
126.BurtonWest Midlands10,04710.06%
127.BanburySouth East12,39910.07%
128.Dudley SouthWest Midlands7,73010.11%
129.Weston-Super-MareSouth West11,54410.23%
130.Hitchin and HarpendenEast of England12,03110.23%
131.Bromley and ChislehurstLondon9,59010.28%
132.St Austell and NewquaySouth West11,14210.28%
133.Portsmouth NorthSouth East9,96510.55%
134.Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkScotland11,06010.56%
135.Southend WestEast of England10,00010.60%
136.KetteringEast Midlands10,56210.69%
137.HarboroughEast Midlands12,42910.79%
138.CleethorpesYorkshire and the Humber10,40010.87%
139.Worthing WestSouth East12,09011.09%
140.Thanet NorthSouth East10,73811.11%
141.CongletonNorth West12,61911.22%
142.Dorset SouthSouth West11,69511.27%
143.Derbyshire SouthEast Midlands11,97011.37%
144.Derbyshire MidEast Midlands11,61611.53%
145.Wyre and Preston NorthNorth West12,24611.63%
146.EddisburyNorth West11,94211.64%
147.Chatham and AylesfordSouth East10,45811.65%
148.WellingboroughEast Midlands12,46011.70%
149.AldershotSouth East11,47811.72%
150.Thornbury and YateSouth West12,07111.91%
151.ChelmsfordEast of England13,57211.93%
152.Ribble ValleyNorth West13,19911.96%
153.HuntingdonEast of England14,47512.12%
154.Staffordshire MoorlandsWest Midlands10,83012.13%
155.DartfordSouth East13,18612.16%
156.Basildon South and Thurrock EastEast of England11,49012.19%
157.Sutton and CheamLondon12,69812.22%
158.Selby and AinstyYorkshire and the Humber13,77212.28%
159.Cambridgeshire SouthEast of England15,95212.29%
160.EastleighSouth East14,17912.38%
161.YeovilSouth West14,72312.39%
162.Leicestershire North WestEast Midlands13,28612.41%
163.AylesburySouth East14,69612.51%
164.Taunton DeaneSouth West15,88712.60%
165.Beverley and HoldernessYorkshire and the Humber14,04212.61%
166.FyldeNorth West11,80512.70%
167.Bedfordshire South WestEast of England14,16812.73%
168.Cambridgeshire South EastEast of England16,15812.82%
169.Wyre ForestWest Midlands13,33413.04%
170.Folkestone and HytheSouth East15,41113.09%
171.Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerLondon13,98013.09%
172.TamworthWest Midlands12,34713.10%
173.Bridgwater and Somerset WestSouth West15,44813.26%
174.MontgomeryshireWales9,28513.31%
175.SpelthorneSouth East13,42513.39%
176.TotnesSouth West13,47713.40%
177.Devon CentralSouth West15,68013.55%
178.Norfolk SouthEast of England16,67813.65%
179.WantageSouth East17,38013.66%
180.Brigg and GooleYorkshire and the Humber12,36313.72%
181.Suffolk CoastalEast of England16,01213.79%
182.RomfordLondon13,77813.79%
183.Somerset NorthSouth West17,10313.79%
184.Yorkshire EastYorkshire and the Humber15,00613.91%
185.Berwick-upon-TweedNorth East11,78113.95%
186.TorbaySouth West14,28313.96%
187.Harwich and Essex NorthEast of England14,35614.04%
188.Cambridgeshire North WestEast of England18,00814.07%
189.Norfolk North WestEast of England13,78814.12%
190.BroadlandEast of England15,81614.13%
191.Isle of WightSouth East21,06914.14%
192.PooleSouth West14,20914.25%
193.BracknellSouth East16,01614.33%
194.Norfolk MidEast of England16,08614.45%
195.Derbyshire DalesEast Midlands14,32714.45%
196.Sutton ColdfieldWest Midlands15,33914.51%
197.ChippenhamSouth West16,63014.55%
198.AshfordSouth East17,47814.59%
199.BeckenhamLondon15,08714.61%
200.Shropshire NorthWest Midlands16,35514.71%
201.Sittingbourne and SheppeySouth East15,21114.80%
202.CharnwoodEast Midlands16,34114.81%
203.Bury St EdmundsEast of England18,44114.83%
204.Hereford and Herefordshire SouthWest Midlands15,01314.87%
205.Basildon and BillericayEast of England13,40014.92%
206.Devon South WestSouth West15,81614.96%
207.Haltemprice and HowdenYorkshire and the Humber15,40514.97%
208.TattonNorth West14,78715.05%
209.WokingSouth East16,72415.14%
210.Hertfordshire North EastEast of England16,83515.14%
211.Tunbridge WellsSouth East16,46515.19%
212.Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthEast of England17,18515.20%
213.BromsgroveWest Midlands16,57315.33%
214.GuildfordSouth East17,04015.35%
215.WokinghamSouth East18,79815.75%
216.Hornchurch and UpminsterLondon17,72315.79%
217.Hertford and StortfordEast of England19,03515.86%
218.Dorset Mid and Poole NorthSouth West15,33915.89%
219.Sussex MidSouth East19,67315.96%
220.Harrogate and KnaresboroughYorkshire and the Humber18,16816.01%
221.Dorset WestSouth West19,09116.02%
222.Old Bexley and SidcupLondon15,46616.10%
223.Hertfordshire South WestEast of England19,55016.12%
224.HertsmereEast of England16,95116.22%
225.Bedfordshire North EastEast of England20,86216.24%
226.SalisburySouth West17,33316.26%
227.BosworthEast Midlands18,35116.34%
228.ReigateSouth East17,61416.36%
229.Suffolk SouthEast of England17,74916.36%
230.Cornwall South EastSouth West17,44316.39%
231.Leicestershire SouthEast Midlands18,63116.43%
232.NewarkEast Midlands18,14916.49%
233.Suffolk WestEast of England17,06316.49%
234.GainsboroughEast Midlands17,02316.55%
235.Bedfordshire MidEast of England20,98316.61%
236.Newton AbbotSouth West17,16016.62%
237.BroxbourneEast of England15,79216.63%
238.Wiltshire South WestSouth West18,32616.74%
239.Thirsk and MaltonYorkshire and the Humber19,00116.99%
240.Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonSouth East17,49417.03%
241.Penrith and The BorderNorth West15,91017.12%
242.Maidstone and The WealdSouth East17,70417.12%
243.Tiverton and HonitonSouth West19,80117.12%
244.Skipton and RiponYorkshire and the Humber19,98517.19%
245.HavantSouth East15,95617.23%
246.Epsom and EwellSouth East20,47517.27%
247.LichfieldWest Midlands18,58117.36%
248.Devon West and TorridgeSouth West20,68617.39%
249.GosportSouth East17,21117.39%
250.WitneySouth East21,24117.43%
251.Norfolk South WestEast of England18,31217.47%
252.StoneWest Midlands17,49517.48%
253.Runnymede and WeybridgeSouth East18,05017.49%
254.Faversham and Kent MidSouth East17,41317.50%
255.MeridenWest Midlands19,19817.57%
256.Northamptonshire SouthEast Midlands22,84017.57%
257.BraintreeEast of England18,42217.60%
258.Kenilworth and SouthamWest Midlands18,08617.62%
259.Grantham and StamfordEast Midlands20,09417.75%
260.Aldridge-BrownhillsWest Midlands14,30717.78%
261.Surrey South WestSouth East21,59017.86%
262.ClactonEast of England15,82817.93%
263.Romsey and Southampton NorthSouth East18,00617.95%
264.Epping ForestEast of England18,24317.96%
265.Somerton and FromeSouth West22,90618.01%
266.SolihullWest Midlands20,57118.12%
267.Louth and HorncastleEast Midlands19,64118.61%
268.Bexhill and BattleSouth East22,16518.63%
269.ChichesterSouth East22,62118.88%
270.Worcestershire WestWest Midlands21,32818.88%
271.FarehamSouth East21,55518.90%
272.WithamEast of England18,64618.93%
273.HorshamSouth East23,48418.94%
274.TewkesburySouth West22,57419.10%
275.Sleaford and North HykehamEast Midlands25,23719.18%
276.OrpingtonLondon19,45319.27%
277.Hampshire North WestSouth East22,67919.29%
278.LudlowWest Midlands19,28619.30%
279.Boston and SkegnessEast Midlands16,57219.32%
280.Esher and WaltonSouth East23,29819.47%
281.HenleySouth East22,29419.52%
282.DaventryEast Midlands21,73419.52%
283.WealdenSouth East23,62819.54%
284.Arundel and South DownsSouth East23,88319.82%
285.Stratford-on-AvonWest Midlands20,95819.95%
286.Cambridgeshire North EastEast of England21,27019.96%
287.NewburySouth East24,38020.03%
288.Chesham and AmershamSouth East22,14020.04%
289.Rutland and MeltonEast Midlands23,10420.07%
290.Surrey EastSouth East23,91420.20%
291.Richmond (Yorks)Yorkshire and the Humber23,10820.27%
292.Saffron WaldenEast of England24,96620.49%
293.Tonbridge and MallingSouth East23,50820.65%
294.WindsorSouth East22,38420.76%
295.DevizesSouth West21,13620.89%
296.Castle PointEast of England18,87221.10%
297.Worcestershire MidWest Midlands23,32621.17%
298.Rayleigh and WickfordEast of England23,45021.19%
299.Mole ValleySouth East24,13721.28%
300.Wiltshire NorthSouth West22,87721.30%
301.Cotswolds, TheSouth West25,49921.36%
302.SevenoaksSouth East21,91721.40%
303.New Forest EastSouth East21,99521.41%
304.Herefordshire NorthWest Midlands21,60221.53%
305.Surrey HeathSouth East24,94321.57%
306.BeaconsfieldSouth East24,54321.90%
307.Staffordshire SouthWest Midlands22,73322.24%
308.Brentwood and OngarEast of England24,00222.68%
309.MaidenheadSouth East26,45722.71%
310.Dorset NorthSouth West25,77723.13%
311.Hampshire EastSouth East25,85223.33%
312.MaldonEast of England23,43023.34%
313.New Forest WestSouth East23,43123.61%
314.Meon ValleySouth East25,69223.70%
315.Hampshire North EastSouth East27,77224.10%
316.South Holland and The DeepingsEast Midlands24,89724.74%
317.ChristchurchSouth West25,17124.86%

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

Conservative Defence for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing to Defeat
1.Edinburgh CentralLothian6100.89%
2.AyrSouth Scotland7501.00%
3.Aberdeenshire WestNorth East Scotland9001.28%
4.DumfriesshireSouth Scotland1,2301.70%
5.EastwoodWest Scotland1,6102.22%
6.Galloway and West DumfriesSouth Scotland1,5142.27%
7.Ettrick, Roxburgh and BerwickshireSouth Scotland7,73611.69%

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Defence for the 2021 Welsh Assembly Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Welsh Assembly election.

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing to Defeat
1.AberconwyNorth Wales7541.71%
2.Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthMid and West Wales3,3735.77%
3.Preseli PembrokeshireMid and West Wales3,9306.92%
4.MontgomeryshireMid and West Wales3,3397.07%
5.MonmouthSouth Wales East5,1478.20%
6.Clwyd WestNorth Wales5,0639.65%

View Conservative target seats for the next Welsh Assembly election.

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