Senedd Polling
On this page are the latest Senedd election polls for the 2026 Senedd election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. The seat calculations are from the 2026 Senedd swingometer.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
3
31 seats needed for a majority
Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2026 Senedd election polling average is calculated is available here.
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 30 | 28 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Conservative | 16 | 11 | 0 | -5 | -5 |
| Plaid Cymru | 13 | 9 | 0 | -4 | -4 |
| Green | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Liberal Democrat | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 39.85% | 36.00% | -3.85% | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 26.07% | 21.00% | -5.07% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.27% | 21.00% | +0.73% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reform UK | 1.57% | 11.00% | +9.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.88% | 3.00% | -1.88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 36.17% | 32.00% | -4.17% | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -2 |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.72% | 18.00% | -2.72% | 8 | 4 | 0 | -4 | -4 |
| Conservative | 25.08% | 16.00% | -9.08% | 8 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -5 |
| Reform UK | 1.06% | 11.00% | +9.94% | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Green | 4.39% | 9.00% | +4.61% | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.34% | 7.00% | +2.66% | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | +1 |
| Abolish the Welsh Assembly | 3.73% | 3.73% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
See which seats have changed hands using our Senedd seat calculator.
At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2026 Senedd election polls for the next Senedd election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Senedd swingometer.
Constituency Polls
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | LAB | CON | PC | LD | GRN | RefUK | Lead |
|---|
| 24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 878 | 1.00 | 36 | 21 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 874 | - | 34 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 13 |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | - | 39 | 25 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,086 | - | 41 | 22 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | - | 40 | 23 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 |
| 15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 959 | - | 37 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,172 | - | 39 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 Sep 2023 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,051 | - | 41 | 18 | 19 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,068 | - | 37 | 21 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | - | 42 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | - | 36 | 22 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 14 |
| 17 May 2023 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,064 | - | 40 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22 |
| 15 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,058 | - | 38 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
| 17 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,251 | - | 41 | 21 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 Feb 2023 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,081 | - | 43 | 18 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 23 |
| 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,042 | - | 44 | 17 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| 22 Sep 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,014 | - | 40 | 20 | 22 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 16 Jun 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,020 | - | 37 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,086 | - | 38 | 24 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 16 Dec 2021 | YouGov / ITV Wales | 1,009 | - | 40 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 16 Sep 2021 | YouGov / ITV Wales | 1,057 | - | 37 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
Region Polls
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | LAB | CON | PC | GRN | LD | RefUK | Lead |
|---|
| 24 Mar 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 878 | 1.00 | 32 | 16 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 14 |
| 18 Feb 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 874 | - | 29 | 16 | 25 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | - | 34 | 19 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| 11 Dec 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,086 | - | 28 | 20 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | - | 32 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 11 |
| 15 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 959 | - | 31 | 21 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 7 |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,172 | - | 35 | 21 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 Sep 2023 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,051 | - | 34 | 16 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,068 | - | 31 | 19 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | - | 33 | 20 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 18 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | - | 30 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 17 May 2023 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,064 | - | 40 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 Feb 2023 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,081 | - | 39 | 18 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 |
| 1 Dec 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,042 | - | 38 | 16 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 22 Sep 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,014 | - | 37 | 18 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| 16 Jun 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,020 | - | 31 | 21 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 1 Mar 2022 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,086 | - | 34 | 23 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 16 Dec 2021 | YouGov / ITV Wales | 1,009 | - | 35 | 22 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 16 Sep 2021 | YouGov / ITV Wales | 1,057 | - | 33 | 26 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 |