Welsh Assembly Polling

On this page are the latest Welsh Assembly election polls for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages.

The below calculations are from the 2021 Welsh Assembly swingometer.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
2
31 seats needed for a majority

Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2021 Welsh Assembly election polling average is calculated is available here.

Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour2929+2-20
Conservative1119+80+8
Plaid Cymru12100-2-2
Liberal Democrat11000
UKIP710-6-6
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour34.71%38.00%+3.29%27250-2-2
Conservative21.15%28.00%+6.85%68+20+2
Plaid Cymru20.54%19.00%-1.54%66000
UKIP12.46%6.00%-6.46%00000
Liberal Democrat7.67%6.00%-1.67%11000
Green2.47%2.47%0.00%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour31.46%37.00%+5.54%24+20+2
Conservative18.81%26.00%+7.19%511+60+6
Plaid Cymru20.85%18.00%-2.85%640-2-2
Liberal Democrat6.46%6.00%-0.46%00000
UKIP13.02%5.00%-8.02%710-6-6
Green2.98%2.98%0.00%00000

Here are the most recent 2021 Welsh Assembly election polls for the next Welsh Assembly election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Welsh Assembly swingometer.

Constituency Polls

Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABPCCONUKIPLDLead
2 Nov 2018YouGov1,0131.003819286610
2 Jul 2018YouGov1,031-3821284610
15 Mar 2018YouGov1,015-3922285411
25 Feb 2018ICM Research1,001-4025225615
24 Nov 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,016-4319264517
7 Sep 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,011-4319254518
21 May 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,025-4020275613
7 May 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,025-33203337Tie
20 Apr 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,029-292230881
6 Jan 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,034-3121251286
21 Sep 2016YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,001-34202413610
4 Jul 2016YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,010-3223191679
2 Jun 2016YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,017-34231815711

Region Polls

Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABPCCONUKIPLDLead
2 Nov 2018YouGov1,0131.003718265611
2 Jul 2018YouGov1,031-3722255512
15 Mar 2018YouGov1,015-362127649
25 Feb 2018ICM Research1,001-3623218613
24 Nov 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,016-3818274511
7 Sep 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,011-4019235517
21 May 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,025-3719265511
7 May 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,025-312032561
21 Apr 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,029-272028961
6 Jan 2017YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,034-2820221476
21 Sep 2016YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,001-2921221367
4 Jul 2016YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,010-2924181565
2 Jun 2016YouGov / Welsh Political Barometer1,017-32211814611
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