Welsh Assembly Polling

On this page are the latest Welsh Assembly election polls for the 2026 Welsh Assembly election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. The seat calculations are from the 2026 Welsh Assembly swingometer.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
1
31 seats needed for a majority

Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2026 Welsh Assembly election polling average is calculated is available here.

Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour3030000
Conservative16150-1-1
Plaid Cymru1314+10+1
Liberal Democrat11000
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour39.85%38.00%-1.85%2727000
Conservative26.07%24.00%-2.07%88000
Plaid Cymru20.27%21.00%+0.73%55000
Liberal Democrat4.88%6.00%+1.12%00000
Reform UK1.57%5.00%+3.43%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour36.17%34.00%-2.17%33000
Conservative25.08%23.00%-2.08%870-1-1
Plaid Cymru20.72%20.00%-0.72%89+10+1
Liberal Democrat4.34%6.00%+1.66%11000
Green4.39%4.00%-0.39%00000
Abolish the Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%0.00%00000
Reform UK1.06%3.00%+1.94%00000
Seat Gains and Losses

See which seats have changed hands using our Welsh Assembly seat calculator.

Map Options

At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2026 Welsh Assembly election polls for the next Welsh Assembly election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Welsh Assembly swingometer.

Constituency Polls

Labour
Conservative
Plaid Cymru
Liberal Democrat
Green
Reform UK
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABCONPCLDGRNRefUKLead
1 Mar 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,0861.0038242163514
16 Dec 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,009-40231745717
16 Sep 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,057-37271954510

Region Polls

Labour
Conservative
Plaid Cymru
Green
Liberal Democrat
Reform UK
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABCONPCGRNLDRefUKLead
1 Mar 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,0861.0034232046311
16 Dec 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,009-35221973513
16 Sep 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,057-3326195427
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