On this page are the latest Senedd election polls for the 2026 Senedd election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. The seat calculations are from the 2026 Senedd swingometer. Note that these calculations use our estimate of the new boundaries.
Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2026 Senedd election polling average is calculated is available here.
Summary| Seats | Seat Changes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Plaid Cymru | 13 | 22 | +17 | -8 | +9 | |
| Labour | 30 | 14 | +9 | -25 | -16 | |
| Reform UK | 0 | 14 | +14 | 0 | +14 | |
| Conservative | 16 | 9 | +2 | -9 | -7 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 1 | 1 | +1 | -1 | 0 | |
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.27% | 31.97% | +11.70% | 5 | 22 | +17 | 0 | +17 | |
| Reform UK | 1.57% | 28.15% | +26.58% | 0 | 14 | +14 | 0 | +14 | |
| Labour | 39.85% | 12.66% | -27.19% | 27 | 2 | 0 | -25 | -25 | |
| Conservative | 26.07% | 10.41% | -15.66% | 8 | 1 | 0 | -7 | -7 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.88% | 5.62% | +0.75% | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | +1 | |
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Labour | 36.17% | 36.17% | 0.00% | 3 | 12 | +9 | 0 | +9 | |
| Conservative | 25.08% | 25.08% | 0.00% | 8 | 8 | +2 | -2 | 0 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.72% | 20.72% | 0.00% | 8 | 0 | 0 | -8 | -8 | |
| Green | 4.39% | 4.39% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.34% | 4.34% | 0.00% | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| Abolish Welsh Assembly | 3.73% | 3.73% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reform UK | 1.06% | 1.06% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
See which seats have changed hands using our Senedd seat calculator.
At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2026 Senedd election polls for the next Senedd election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Senedd swingometer.
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | LAB | CON | PC | GRN | LD | REF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 May 2026 | Find Out Now | 2,001 | 1.00 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 28 | 7 |
| 6 May 2026 | Survation | 1,054 | 1.00 | 15 | 10 | 30 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 2 |
| 4 May 2026 | YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 2,391 | 0.90 | 12 | 9 | 33 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 4 |
| 27 Apr 2026 | More in Common | 2,159 | 0.55 | 16 | 12 | 30 | 9 | 4 | 27 | 3 |
| 23 Apr 2026 | Survation / S4C / Aberystwyth University | 834 | 0.15 | 15 | 10 | 28 | 10 | 4 | 30 | 2 |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Find Out Now / Plaid Cymru | 2,012 | 0.10 | 10 | 13 | 29 | 11 | 6 | 27 | 2 |
| 15 Apr 2026 | YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 2,387 | - | 13 | 8 | 29 | 10 | 6 | 29 | Tie |
| 13 Apr 2026 | JL Partners / The Telegraph | 2,050 | - | 16 | 12 | 29 | 9 | 6 | 25 | 4 |
| 10 Apr 2026 | More in Common | 2,519 | - | 21 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 25 | Tie |
| 8 Apr 2026 | Ipsos | 747 | - | 15 | 12 | 30 | 10 | 6 | 25 | 5 |
| 22 Mar 2026 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 459 | - | 17 | 9 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 27 | 3 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 2,978 | - | 13 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 5 | 27 | 6 |
| 3 Mar 2026 | More in Common | 851 | - | 20 | 10 | 26 | 10 | 7 | 26 | Tie |
| 10 Feb 2026 | More in Common / Sky News | 806 | - | 20 | 13 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 7 |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 486 | - | 20 | 10 | 29 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 2 |
| 12 Jan 2026 | YouGov / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,220 | - | 10 | 10 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 23 | 14 |
| 5 Jan 2026 | More in Common | 815 | - | 17 | 14 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 5 |
| 4 Jan 2026 | Find Out Now | 1,503 | - | 12 | 12 | 30 | 9 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | YouGov / Cardiff University | 1,891 | - | 10 | 10 | 33 | 9 | 6 | 30 | 3 |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 1,000 | - | 21 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| 12 Oct 2025 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 533 | - | 23 | 11 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 30 | 7 |
| 10 Sep 2025 | YouGov / Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,232 | - | 14 | 11 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 400 | - | 27 | 13 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 2 |
| 3 Jul 2025 | More in Common / Sky News | 883 | - | 23 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 2 |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Find Out Now | 2,101 | - | 18 | 11 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 |
| 30 Apr 2025 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,265 | - | 18 | 13 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 5 |
| 1 Apr 2025 | Survation | 809 | - | 27 | 15 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 3 |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 1,000 | - | 27 | 16 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 3 |
| 29 Nov 2024 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,121 | - | 23 | 19 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| 4 Nov 2024 | Survation / Reform UK | 2,006 | - | 29 | 18 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | 2,565 | - | 25 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,072 | - | 27 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
| 7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 960 | - | 36 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,066 | - | 30 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 |
| 19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 900 | - | 37 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
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