Welsh Assembly Polling

On this page are the latest Welsh Assembly election polls for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages.

The below calculations are from the 2021 Welsh Assembly swingometer.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
7
31 seats needed for a majority

Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2021 Welsh Assembly election polling average is calculated is available here.

Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour2924+3-8-5
Conservative1122+12-1+11
Plaid Cymru1213+2-1+1
Liberal Democrat11000
UKIP700-7-7
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Conservative21.15%35.00%+13.85%614+80+8
Labour34.71%33.00%-1.71%27190-8-8
Plaid Cymru20.54%19.00%-1.54%66000
Liberal Democrat7.67%5.00%-2.67%11000
Green2.47%3.00%+0.53%00000
UKIP12.46%0.00%-12.46%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour31.46%32.00%+0.54%25+30+3
Conservative18.81%32.00%+13.19%58+4-1+3
Plaid Cymru20.85%19.00%-1.85%67+2-1+1
Liberal Democrat6.46%5.00%-1.46%00000
Brexit Party0.00%3.00%+3.00%00000
Green2.98%2.98%0.00%00000
UKIP13.02%0.00%-13.02%700-7-7

Here are the most recent 2021 Welsh Assembly election polls for the next Welsh Assembly election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Welsh Assembly swingometer.

Constituency Polls

Labour
Plaid Cymru
Conservative
UKIP
Liberal Democrat
Green
Brexit Party
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABPCCONUKIPLDGRNBREXLead
26 Jan 2020YouGov1,0371.0033193505342
9 Dec 2019YouGov1,020-33183107372
28 Nov 2019YouGov1,116-322026074116
4 Nov 2019YouGov1,136-272124-104143
14 Oct 2019YouGov1,032-252223-114152
26 Jul 2019YouGov1,071-212419-124193
20 May 2019YouGov1,009-252417195171
5 Apr 2019YouGov1,025-31242376137
23 Feb 2019ICM Research1,000-342723572-7
22 Feb 2019YouGov1,025-322326783-6
14 Dec 2018SkyData1,014-422226432-16
7 Dec 2018YouGov1,024-402025572-15
2 Nov 2018YouGov1,013-381928661-10
2 Jul 2018YouGov1,031-382128461-10
15 Mar 2018YouGov1,015-392228541-11
25 Feb 2018ICM Research1,001-402522561-15
24 Nov 2017YouGov1,016-431926452-17
7 Sep 2017YouGov1,011-431925451-18
31 May 2017YouGov1,014-421926561-16
21 May 2017YouGov1,025-402027562-13
7 May 2017YouGov1,025-332033372-Tie
21 Apr 2017YouGov1,029-292230881-1
6 Jan 2017YouGov1,034-3121251282-6
21 Sep 2016YouGov1,001-3420241362-10
4 Jul 2016YouGov1,010-3223191671-9
2 Jun 2016YouGov1,017-3423181572-11

Region Polls

Labour
Plaid Cymru
Conservative
UKIP
Liberal Democrat
Green
Brexit Party
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABPCCONUKIPLDGRNBREXLead
26 Jan 2020YouGov1,0371.0032193205-3Tie
9 Dec 2019YouGov1,020-32192806474
28 Nov 2019YouGov1,116-29212607493
4 Nov 2019YouGov1,136-23212319513Tie
14 Oct 2019YouGov1,032-2321221105141
26 Jul 2019YouGov1,071-192318-124174
20 May 2019YouGov1,009-212212178231
5 Apr 2019YouGov1,025-28222055366
23 Feb 2019ICM Research1,000-322522663-7
22 Feb 2019YouGov1,025-292324664-5
14 Dec 2018SkyData / Cardiff University1,014-392223422-16
7 Dec 2018YouGov1,024-362024444-12
2 Nov 2018YouGov1,013-371826564-11
2 Jul 2018YouGov1,031-372225553-12
15 Mar 2018YouGov1,015-362127643-9
25 Feb 2018ICM Research1,001-362321862-13
24 Nov 2017YouGov1,016-381827453-11
7 Sep 2017YouGov1,011-401923553-17
31 May 2017YouGov1,014-381727662-11
21 May 2017YouGov1,025-371926553-11
7 May 2017YouGov1,025-312032563-1
21 Apr 2017YouGov1,029-272028965-1
6 Jan 2017YouGov1,034-2820221472-6
21 Sep 2016YouGov1,001-2921221363-7
4 Jul 2016YouGov1,010-2924181564-5
2 Jun 2016YouGov1,017-3221181464-11
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