First Election 2020 Poll using the New Methodology

ICM have released the first poll for Election 2020 with updated methodology. They are showing CON 40, LAB 31, UKIP 10, LD 7, GRN 4.

On a uniform swing, the Conservatives would win the election with a majority of 40. They would have 345 seats, up 15 on last time. They would essentially gain the seats which Labour gained from them in Election 2015, including Wolverhampton South West, Hove and Wirral West. Labour would be down from 232 seats to 220 which is fewer than in Election 1987, but 12 more than in Election 1983. The Liberal Democrats would do even worse than in Election 2015 by losing two more seats to the Conservatives. Parties with smaller representation in parliament such as UKIP and the Green Party would hold their seats.

Do note that these figures are based on the current boundaries. If the new boundary proposals are approved then we would likely see a stronger Conservative performance in terms of seats.