Conservative Defence

Below are lists of Conservative marginal seats showing which constituencies won in the latest elections can be most easily lost.

Conservative Defence 2024

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2024 general election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing to Defeat
1.BurnleyNorth West1270.13%
2.Leigh and AthertonNorth West2930.33%
3.High PeakEast Midlands5900.54%
4.Carshalton and WallingtonLondon6290.64%
5.WimbledonLondon8390.74%
6.Bangor AberconwyWales7490.77%
7.Aberdeenshire West and KincardineScotland8430.79%
8.Wolverhampton WestWest Midlands9340.92%
9.Bury SouthNorth West9350.94%
10.Bury NorthNorth West1,2821.20%
11.Cambridgeshire SouthEast of England1,4981.25%
12.CheltenhamSouth West1,4211.25%
13.Bolton North EastNorth West1,2781.28%
14.WatfordEast of England1,3001.35%
15.Chingford and Woodford GreenLondon1,6041.47%
16.Dumfries and GallowayScotland1,5561.48%
17.WycombeSouth East1,4941.58%
18.Birmingham NorthfieldWest Midlands1,4781.68%
19.Leeds North WestYorkshire and the Humber2,0011.80%
20.StroudSouth West2,4672.03%
21.CheadleNorth West2,3362.09%
22.Keighley and IlkleyYorkshire and the Humber2,2182.11%
23.Stoke-on-Trent CentralWest Midlands1,7152.11%
24.EastbourneSouth East2,1682.11%
25.Whitehaven and WorkingtonNorth West2,1442.17%
26.GedlingEast Midlands2,4072.22%
27.Walsall and BloxwichWest Midlands2,1862.40%
28.PeterboroughEast of England2,3332.47%
29.Vale of GlamorganWales2,5662.57%
30.West BromwichWest Midlands2,1502.60%
31.Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastScotland2,3992.61%
32.Cheshire MidNorth West2,4942.66%
33.Wakefield and RothwellYorkshire and the Humber2,6262.67%
34.Esher and WaltonSouth East3,0152.68%
35.Ynys MonWales1,9682.69%
36.Derby NorthEast Midlands2,5402.70%
37.BridgendWales2,5532.73%
38.Clwyd NorthWales2,8342.76%
39.GuildfordSouth East3,1172.96%
40.Lancaster and WyreNorth West3,0123.05%
41.Hastings and RyeSouth East3,5323.36%
42.Eltham and ChislehurstLondon3,4443.37%
43.Gordon and BuchanScotland3,2243.39%
44.LincolnEast Midlands3,5143.47%
45.HyndburnNorth West2,9513.48%
46.BroxtoweEast Midlands3,8193.58%
47.Chipping BarnetLondon4,2093.60%
48.LewesSouth East4,1263.71%
49.Northampton NorthEast Midlands3,9323.85%
50.Newton Aycliffe and SpennymoorNorth East3,4083.93%
51.HendonLondon3,6614.01%
52.Truro and FalmouthSouth West4,4594.04%
53.WrexhamWales3,9394.18%
54.Hazel GroveNorth West4,2194.18%
55.CaerfyrddinWales4,5294.25%
56.Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleScotland4,3384.26%
57.Hull West and HaltempriceYorkshire and the Humber3,6264.35%
58.Blackpool SouthNorth West3,7004.36%
59.Calder ValleyYorkshire and the Humber5,1074.52%
60.Southampton ItchenSouth East4,4984.70%
61.Milton Keynes CentralSouth East4,9524.70%
62.Westmorland and LonsdaleNorth West5,1404.74%
63.Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkScotland5,1484.84%
64.St IvesSouth West5,2274.85%
65.Clwyd EastWales5,2845.00%
66.DarlingtonNorth East4,9685.36%
67.RedcarNorth East4,8785.45%
68.IpswichEast of England5,4795.53%
69.Altrincham and Sale WestNorth West6,1395.61%
70.Swindon SouthSouth West5,6505.70%
71.Cities of London and WestminsterLondon5,9765.73%
72.BolsoverEast Midlands5,2735.77%
73.ShipleyYorkshire and the Humber6,2425.78%
74.Crewe and NantwichNorth West5,8165.79%
75.LoughboroughEast Midlands6,0915.90%
76.Finchley and Golders GreenLondon6,6295.98%
77.RushcliffeEast Midlands7,3546.12%
78.Tipton and WednesburyWest Midlands4,6936.14%
79.AshfieldEast Midlands5,3036.17%
80.Norwich NorthEast of England6,3656.25%
81.Spen ValleyYorkshire and the Humber6,0646.42%
82.Milton Keynes NorthSouth East6,3276.55%
83.WorcesterWest Midlands6,7586.64%
84.Rother ValleyYorkshire and the Humber6,1356.74%
85.SouthportNorth West6,7716.80%
86.ShrewsburyWest Midlands7,1756.96%
87.Worthing East and ShorehamSouth East7,4747.03%
88.WinchesterSouth East9,0507.08%
89.Penistone and StocksbridgeYorkshire and the Humber7,2107.28%
90.Barrow and FurnessNorth West7,4367.43%
91.Colne ValleyYorkshire and the Humber7,7617.46%
92.Filton and Bradley StokeSouth West7,8427.61%
93.Uxbridge and Ruislip SouthLondon7,9397.77%
94.Taunton and WellingtonSouth West8,5367.84%
95.Pembrokeshire Mid and SouthWales8,6217.84%
96.Exmouth and Exeter EastSouth West8,8097.89%
97.Harrogate and KnaresboroughYorkshire and the Humber8,7877.91%
98.Thanet EastSouth East7,5857.91%
99.Corby and Northamptonshire EastEast Midlands8,6768.05%
100.Leeds South West and MorleyYorkshire and the Humber7,1148.16%
101.Bishop AucklandNorth East8,1138.19%
102.Chelsea and FulhamLondon8,9938.21%
103.Sutton and CheamLondon8,3518.27%
104.CrawleySouth East8,3608.38%
105.WokingSouth East8,6838.50%
106.Harrow EastLondon8,9878.59%
107.South RibbleNorth West8,5158.65%
108.Brecon, Radnor and Cwm TaweWales9,0918.70%
109.EastleighSouth East8,6418.72%
110.Newcastle-under-LymeWest Midlands8,2658.73%
111.Bournemouth EastSouth West8,8178.94%
112.StevenageEast of England8,5628.98%
113.Didcot and WantageSouth East10,0239.22%
114.Dorking and HorleySouth East10,3819.44%
115.Camborne and RedruthSouth West9,8489.55%
116.Godalming and AshSouth East10,7209.63%
117.Stoke-on-Trent NorthWest Midlands8,0779.65%
118.GloucesterSouth West9,8809.67%
119.York OuterYorkshire and the Humber10,7829.85%
120.Rossendale and DarwenNorth West9,8349.85%
121.Wolverhampton North EastWest Midlands7,8479.92%
122.MacclesfieldNorth West10,7119.94%
123.Blackpool North and FleetwoodNorth West10,11910.11%
124.MonmouthshireWales10,83710.25%
125.Scarborough and WhitbyYorkshire and the Humber10,27010.33%
126.Welwyn HatfieldEast of England10,77310.40%
127.HitchinEast of England11,26410.42%
128.Bolton WestNorth West10,61910.65%
129.Dorset WestSouth West12,38810.71%
130.ScunthorpeYorkshire and the Humber10,13310.72%
131.CarlisleNorth West11,29010.82%
132.ErewashEast Midlands10,60610.86%
133.Bournemouth WestSouth West9,94110.86%
134.Earley and WoodleySouth East11,29311.05%
135.Henley and ThameSouth East11,90111.05%
136.ColchesterEast of England10,94011.14%
137.NewburySouth East11,46011.24%
138.Stockton WestNorth East11,74911.29%
139.HexhamNorth East12,18611.29%
140.Ossett and Denby DaleYorkshire and the Humber11,02711.34%
141.Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastNorth East10,29911.44%
142.WokinghamSouth East12,75011.59%
143.Doncaster East and the Isle of AxholmeYorkshire and the Humber10,08511.70%
144.Great Grimsby and CleethorpesYorkshire and the Humber9,75911.71%
145.Pendle and ClitheroeNorth West11,56811.92%
146.BasingstokeSouth East12,30112.02%
147.Dover and DealSouth East12,42112.13%
148.St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireEast of England12,25012.24%
149.Penrith and SolwayNorth West13,76012.31%
150.Ely and Cambridgeshire EastEast of England13,44912.35%
151.TelfordWest Midlands10,90012.52%
152.Devon SouthSouth West13,71912.66%
153.Wells and Mendip HillsSouth West14,29512.66%
154.Buckingham and BletchleySouth East13,34512.68%
155.Morecambe and LunesdaleNorth West14,18812.75%
156.Sussex MidSouth East13,66512.90%
157.Frome and Somerset EastSouth West12,39512.92%
158.Thornbury and YateSouth West14,53812.96%
159.Derbyshire North EastEast Midlands12,90213.04%
160.Croydon SouthLondon13,40813.06%
161.ChippenhamSouth West13,20013.06%
162.BeaconsfieldSouth East13,77213.08%
163.RugbyWest Midlands13,39513.10%
164.BassetlawEast Midlands12,58813.20%
165.Worthing WestSouth East13,91213.23%
166.Farnham and BordonSouth East13,57713.27%
167.Devon NorthSouth West14,81313.33%
168.Glastonbury and SomertonSouth West14,18313.33%
169.StaffordWest Midlands13,72013.37%
170.Tunbridge WellsSouth East14,64513.40%
171.Hemel HempsteadEast of England13,16113.41%
172.Northampton SouthEast Midlands13,32413.43%
173.ThurrockEast of England11,96213.48%
174.Harpenden and BerkhamstedEast of England15,04413.50%
175.YeovilSouth West14,63813.52%
176.BanburySouth East13,79913.58%
177.Bicester and WoodstockSouth East14,20513.66%
178.Plymouth Moor ViewSouth West13,26213.77%
179.HalesowenWest Midlands12,08213.82%
180.Southend East and RochfordEast of England11,94213.84%
181.Swindon NorthSouth West13,25013.98%
182.Norfolk NorthEast of England14,49214.05%
183.SelbyYorkshire and the Humber14,83814.06%
184.Somerset NorthSouth West16,18414.23%
185.Somerset North East and HanhamSouth West16,38914.27%
186.ChelmsfordEast of England15,41614.32%
187.AylesburySouth East16,64014.37%
188.Montgomeryshire and GlyndwrWales14,76514.42%
189.St Austell and NewquaySouth West15,94214.47%
190.Weston-Super-MareSouth West13,31014.51%
191.NuneatonWest Midlands13,14414.54%
192.Cornwall NorthSouth West15,78314.59%
193.Bromley and Biggin HillLondon14,38014.66%
194.Romsey and Southampton NorthSouth East16,25114.68%
195.Epsom and EwellSouth East16,85614.68%
196.Surrey HeathSouth East15,55214.74%
197.Folkestone and HytheSouth East13,23914.78%
198.Rochester and StroodSouth East13,55314.82%
199.Harborough, Oadby and WigstonEast Midlands15,60814.84%
200.Burton and UttoxeterWest Midlands14,49614.87%
201.Southend West and LeighEast of England15,45415.03%
202.BracknellSouth East14,12915.07%
203.Dorset Mid and Poole NorthSouth West16,57015.09%
204.Runnymede and WeybridgeSouth East16,07215.12%
205.Cotswolds SouthSouth West16,09215.13%
206.Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerLondon15,81015.13%
207.Isle of Wight WestSouth East11,61815.25%
208.Devon CentralSouth West17,30015.25%
209.Melksham and DevizesSouth West17,02815.27%
210.Forest of DeanSouth West15,86915.41%
211.HorshamSouth East17,35315.54%
212.Sherwood ForestEast Midlands16,29015.63%
213.Hertford and StortfordEast of England17,80615.81%
214.DartfordSouth East14,70415.81%
215.Bexleyheath and CrayfordLondon15,03815.90%
216.Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardEast of England15,38615.94%
217.WitneySouth East15,67416.05%
218.DudleyWest Midlands13,60916.12%
219.Ribble ValleyNorth West16,83916.12%
220.Gillingham and RainhamSouth East15,11916.15%
221.Derbyshire MidEast Midlands16,81616.30%
222.Harwich and Essex NorthEast of England17,65116.32%
223.StourbridgeWest Midlands15,13316.34%
224.LowestoftEast of England14,85016.36%
225.GraveshamSouth East15,58116.38%
226.Northumberland NorthNorth East17,30616.41%
227.Hertfordshire North EastEast of England18,18916.44%
228.Stoke-on-Trent SouthWest Midlands15,39316.45%
229.Norfolk SouthEast of England17,17516.56%
230.Newton AbbotSouth West17,45616.65%
231.Isle of Wight EastSouth East12,11916.67%
232.KetteringEast Midlands17,36316.68%
233.MaidenheadSouth East17,10116.79%
234.Reading West and Mid BerkshireSouth East16,75816.95%
235.Chesham and AmershamSouth East18,21616.96%
236.MansfieldEast Midlands16,24717.01%
237.Wellingborough and RushdenEast Midlands16,03817.05%
238.Portsmouth NorthSouth East15,78017.19%
239.Dorset SouthSouth West18,14717.21%
240.Hertfordshire South WestEast of England17,62317.32%
241.AldershotSouth East17,98517.35%
242.TattonNorth West19,28117.40%
243.TorbaySouth West17,75117.41%
244.Derbyshire DalesEast Midlands18,79717.43%
245.Derbyshire SouthEast Midlands16,48317.46%
246.Suffolk CoastalEast of England18,35517.53%
247.HarlowEast of England16,69417.62%
248.AshfordSouth East17,21117.71%
249.East Grinstead and UckfieldSouth East20,29117.73%
250.Stratford-on-AvonWest Midlands19,02017.76%
251.ReigateSouth East19,22017.76%
252.SalisburySouth West18,84817.87%
253.TewkesburySouth West19,44318.05%
254.Cambridgeshire North WestEast of England17,03218.11%
255.Beverley and HoldernessYorkshire and the Humber17,97618.16%
256.WindsorSouth East18,24718.24%
257.CongletonNorth West18,20318.27%
258.Leicestershire MidEast Midlands20,18818.29%
259.Leicestershire North WestEast Midlands18,54818.33%
260.Wiltshire South WestSouth West17,37818.39%
261.Sutton ColdfieldWest Midlands19,27218.42%
262.Hampshire EastSouth East20,20018.43%
263.Amber ValleyEast Midlands16,89118.52%
264.FyldeNorth West19,25418.53%
265.SpelthorneSouth East18,39318.58%
266.BridgwaterSouth West16,72418.58%
267.Staffordshire MoorlandsWest Midlands17,65918.70%
268.Chester South and EddisburyNorth West20,82618.71%
269.Broadland and FakenhamEast of England19,82518.77%
270.PooleSouth West18,60819.07%
271.RomfordLondon18,53619.16%
272.HuntingdonEast of England21,64519.22%
273.ChichesterSouth East19,62219.23%
274.Cornwall South EastSouth West20,22519.36%
275.RedditchWest Midlands18,42319.39%
276.Warwickshire North and BedworthWest Midlands17,95619.55%
277.NewarkEast Midlands21,69719.59%
278.Shropshire NorthWest Midlands20,54319.65%
279.Hampshire North EastSouth East22,43319.77%
280.Skipton and RiponYorkshire and the Humber22,51719.83%
281.Melton and SystonEast Midlands19,00419.88%
282.Maidstone and MallingSouth East19,44819.88%
283.Surrey EastSouth East20,56519.98%
284.Bedfordshire MidEast of England20,50919.98%
285.Herne Bay and SandwichSouth East20,37219.99%
286.Kenilworth and SouthamWest Midlands22,30319.99%
287.Old Bexley and SidcupLondon20,76920.02%
288.Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthEast of England20,21320.05%
289.BroxbourneEast of England19,19220.13%
290.Wrekin, TheWest Midlands21,17320.19%
291.Great YarmouthEast of England17,66320.32%
292.Bexhill and BattleSouth East20,38420.49%
293.Devon South WestSouth West23,09020.58%
294.Hamble ValleySouth East23,48820.59%
295.Cotswolds NorthSouth West20,99720.67%
296.Solihull West and ShirleyWest Midlands20,79820.72%
297.Chatham and AylesfordSouth East18,99220.73%
298.Arundel and South DownsSouth East24,10520.74%
299.Norfolk MidEast of England20,38820.76%
300.Meriden and Solihull EastWest Midlands20,27020.78%
301.Hampshire North WestSouth East21,50720.81%
302.Hereford and Herefordshire SouthWest Midlands19,32120.88%
303.Buckinghamshire MidSouth East22,64820.88%
304.Tiverton and MineheadSouth West20,66520.91%
305.Basildon South and Thurrock EastEast of England18,73120.94%
306.Torridge and TavistockSouth West22,89920.94%
307.Essex North WestEast of England23,22721.01%
308.Bedfordshire NorthEast of England23,63121.02%
309.Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketEast of England22,08521.04%
310.OrpingtonLondon20,62721.07%
311.Suffolk WestEast of England20,79721.08%
312.Fareham and WaterloovilleSouth East21,27621.12%
313.SevenoaksSouth East21,79321.16%
314.Wyre ForestWest Midlands21,41321.18%
315.Northamptonshire SouthEast Midlands23,67121.20%
316.Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonSouth East22,68221.26%
317.Hornchurch and UpminsterLondon21,73521.29%
318.BromsgroveWest Midlands23,10621.29%
319.Worcestershire WestWest Midlands24,49921.29%
320.TamworthWest Midlands20,66321.35%
321.Faversham and Mid KentSouth East20,61821.38%
322.Suffolk SouthEast of England21,47321.43%
323.Cannock ChaseWest Midlands19,87921.46%
324.LichfieldWest Midlands22,60921.55%
325.Dorset NorthSouth West23,19521.69%
326.Norfolk North WestEast of England21,07721.70%
327.Waveney ValleyEast of England22,36421.81%
328.HertsmereEast of England22,98021.88%
329.Epping ForestEast of England22,17322.05%
330.Basildon and BillericayEast of England20,74922.14%
331.Goole and PocklingtonYorkshire and the Humber22,30222.35%
332.Thirsk and MaltonYorkshire and the Humber23,33722.35%
333.GainsboroughEast Midlands22,17222.57%
334.Honiton and SidmouthSouth West26,22922.70%
335.Sittingbourne and SheppeySouth East21,33722.81%
336.Grantham and BourneEast Midlands22,39322.92%
337.Hinckley and BosworthEast Midlands22,85123.23%
338.Leicestershire SouthEast Midlands25,53423.30%
339.Rutland and StamfordEast Midlands25,53723.35%
340.Bridlington and the WoldsYorkshire and the Humber21,68523.35%
341.DaventryEast Midlands26,61223.36%
342.Sussex WealdSouth East23,16423.44%
343.Richmond and NorthallertonYorkshire and the Humber24,33123.45%
344.Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeWest Midlands21,92223.45%
345.Herefordshire NorthWest Midlands25,71923.63%
346.HavantSouth East21,79223.71%
347.Sleaford and North HykehamEast Midlands24,68023.94%
348.GosportSouth East23,27824.02%
349.Aldridge-BrownhillsWest Midlands22,75824.05%
350.ChristchurchSouth West25,03424.12%
351.New Forest WestSouth East24,40324.25%
352.Droitwich and EveshamWest Midlands25,63124.32%
353.WithamEast of England25,66924.63%
354.BraintreeEast of England25,46624.64%
355.Shropshire SouthWest Midlands28,63624.80%
356.TonbridgeSouth East27,05224.84%
357.New Forest EastSouth East25,25124.86%
358.Wetherby and EasingwoldYorkshire and the Humber27,16424.97%
359.Wiltshire EastSouth West24,52325.03%
360.Norfolk South WestEast of England24,18025.16%
361.Brigg and ImminghamYorkshire and the Humber24,44425.87%
362.Louth and HorncastleEast Midlands27,88327.37%
363.Brentwood and OngarEast of England28,97427.43%
364.ClactonEast of England25,71728.16%
365.Rayleigh and WickfordEast of England30,34828.63%
366.Kingswinford and Staffordshire SouthWest Midlands29,35528.75%
367.Cambridgeshire North EastEast of England25,77928.91%
368.Weald of KentSouth East28,75128.95%
369.MaldonEast of England32,00129.79%
370.Castle PointEast of England27,00929.87%
371.Boston and SkegnessEast Midlands27,40230.43%
372.South Holland and the DeepingsEast Midlands30,83831.35%

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing to Defeat
1.EastwoodWest Scotland2,2162.59%
2.Galloway and West DumfriesSouth Scotland2,6353.54%
3.Aberdeenshire WestNorth East Scotland3,3904.06%
4.DumfriesshireSouth Scotland4,0664.97%
5.Ettrick, Roxburgh and BerwickshireSouth Scotland6,8639.52%

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Senedd Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Senedd election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Senedd election.

(order by percentage majority)

RankConstituencyRegionMajoritySwing to Defeat
1.Vale of ClwydNorth Wales3660.70%
2.Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthMid and West Wales9361.48%
3.Preseli PembrokeshireMid and West Wales1,4002.22%
4.MonmouthSouth Wales East3,8455.36%
5.Brecon and RadnorshireMid and West Wales3,8205.95%
6.Clwyd WestNorth Wales3,6856.50%
7.AberconwyNorth Wales3,3367.08%
8.MontgomeryshireMid and West Wales7,52815.06%

View Conservative target seats for the next Senedd election.

2024 General Election
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