Conservative Defence

Below are lists of Conservative marginal seats showing which constituencies won in the latest elections can be most easily lost.

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Conservative Defence 2025

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2025 general election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

(order by percentage majority)


	Rank	Constituency	Region	Majority	Swing to Defeat
	1.	Bury North	North West	105	0.11%
	2.	Kensington	London	150	0.17%
	3.	Bury South	North West	402	0.40%
	4.	Bolton North East	North West	378	0.43%
	5.	Moray	Scotland	513	0.53%
	6.	High Peak	East Midlands	590	0.54%
	7.	Wimbledon	London	628	0.59%
	8.	Carshalton and Wallington	London	629	0.64%
	9.	Gedling	East Midlands	679	0.68%
	10.	Heywood and Middleton	North West	663	0.70%
	11.	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Scotland	843	0.79%
	12.	Cheltenham	South West	981	0.83%
	13.	Winchester	South East	985	0.84%
	14.	Blyth Valley	North East	712	0.87%
	15.	Stoke-on-Trent Central	West Midlands	670	1.04%
	16.	Chipping Barnet	London	1,212	1.05%
	17.	Delyn	Wales	865	1.13%
	18.	Durham North West	North East	1,144	1.20%
	19.	Chingford and Woodford Green	London	1,262	1.30%
	20.	Bridgend	Wales	1,157	1.37%
	21.	Dewsbury	Yorkshire and the Humber	1,561	1.38%
	22.	Warrington South	North West	2,010	1.62%
	23.	Clwyd South	Wales	1,239	1.71%
	24.	Burnley	North West	1,352	1.73%
	25.	Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland	1,805	1.75%
	26.	Birmingham Northfield	West Midlands	1,640	1.90%
	27.	Wolverhampton South West	West Midlands	1,661	2.02%
	28.	Cheadle	North West	2,336	2.09%
	29.	Leigh	North West	1,965	2.09%
	30.	Keighley	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,218	2.11%
	31.	Cambridgeshire South	East of England	2,904	2.17%
	32.	Esher and Walton	South East	2,743	2.17%
	33.	West Bromwich East	West Midlands	1,593	2.21%
	34.	Lewes	South East	2,457	2.24%
	35.	Vale of Clwyd	Wales	1,827	2.45%
	36.	Ynys Mon	Wales	1,968	2.69%
	37.	Peterborough	East of England	2,580	2.70%
	38.	Derby North	East Midlands	2,540	2.70%
	39.	Guildford	South East	3,337	2.84%
	40.	Stroud	South West	3,840	2.91%
	41.	Wrexham	Wales	2,131	3.18%
	42.	Aberconwy	Wales	2,034	3.19%
	43.	Pudsey	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,517	3.24%
	44.	Vale of Glamorgan	Wales	3,562	3.25%
	45.	Lincoln	East Midlands	3,514	3.47%
	46.	Hyndburn	North West	2,951	3.48%
	47.	Hastings and Rye	South East	4,043	3.72%
	48.	Wakefield	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,358	3.73%
	49.	Darlington	North East	3,294	3.79%
	50.	Watford	East of England	4,433	3.82%
	51.	Hendon	London	4,230	3.84%
	52.	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Scotland	3,781	3.85%
	53.	Wycombe	South East	4,214	3.85%
	54.	Truro and Falmouth	South West	4,561	3.85%
	55.	Eastbourne	South East	4,331	3.93%
	56.	Don Valley	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,630	3.99%
	57.	Reading West	South East	4,117	4.08%
	58.	St Ives	South West	4,280	4.16%
	59.	Colne Valley	Yorkshire and the Humber	5,103	4.19%
	60.	Southport	North West	4,147	4.30%
	61.	Redcar	North East	3,527	4.32%
	62.	Cities of London and Westminster	London	3,953	4.63%
63.	Southampton Itchen	South East	4,498	4.74%
64.	Stockton South	North East	5,260	4.80%
65.	Broxtowe	East Midlands	5,331	4.82%
66.	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Scotland	5,148	4.84%
67.	Banff and Buchan	Scotland	4,118	4.87%
68.	Calder Valley	Yorkshire and the Humber	5,774	5.00%
69.	Hazel Grove	North West	4,423	5.00%
70.	Milton Keynes North	South East	6,255	5.00%
71.	Workington	North West	4,176	5.02%
72.	Norwich North	East of England	4,738	5.12%
73.	Devon East	South West	6,708	5.23%
74.	Filton and Bradley Stoke	South West	5,646	5.25%
75.	Milton Keynes South	South East	6,944	5.42%
76.	Sedgefield	North East	4,513	5.43%
77.	West Bromwich West	West Midlands	3,799	5.51%
78.	Ipswich	East of England	5,479	5.53%
79.	Altrincham and Sale West	North West	6,139	5.61%
80.	Blackpool South	North West	3,690	5.63%
81.	Northampton South	East Midlands	4,697	5.75%
82.	Bolsover	East Midlands	5,299	5.77%
83.	Shipley	Yorkshire and the Humber	6,242	5.78%
84.	Ashfield	East Midlands	5,733	5.85%
85.	Hitchin and Harpenden	East of England	6,895	5.86%
86.	Wolverhampton North East	West Midlands	4,080	5.95%
87.	Finchley and Golders Green	London	6,562	5.95%
88.	Wokingham	South East	7,383	5.95%
89.	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Wales	5,062	5.97%
90.	Barrow and Furness	North West	5,789	6.29%
91.	Rushcliffe	East Midlands	7,643	6.32%
92.	Rother Valley	Yorkshire and the Humber	6,318	6.49%
93.	Swindon South	South West	6,625	6.53%
94.	Loughborough	East Midlands	7,169	6.56%
95.	Worcester	West Midlands	6,758	6.64%
96.	Copeland	North West	5,842	6.87%
97.	Pendle	North West	6,186	6.96%
98.	Northampton North	East Midlands	5,507	6.96%
99.	Morecambe and Lunesdale	North West	6,354	7.01%
100.	Worthing East and Shoreham	South East	7,474	7.03%
101.	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Yorkshire and the Humber	7,210	7.28%
102.	Surrey South West	South East	8,817	7.31%
103.	Uxbridge and Ruislip South	London	7,210	7.48%
104.	Stoke-on-Trent North	West Midlands	6,286	7.83%
105.	Crewe and Nantwich	North West	8,508	7.87%
106.	Wells	South West	9,991	8.11%
107.	Harrow East	London	8,170	8.25%
108.	Sutton and Cheam	London	8,351	8.27%
109.	Newcastle-under-Lyme	West Midlands	7,446	8.32%
110.	Crawley	South East	8,360	8.38%
111.	Clwyd West	Wales	6,747	8.39%
112.	Corby	East Midlands	10,268	8.49%
113.	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Yorkshire and the Humber	9,675	8.50%
114.	Scunthorpe	Yorkshire and the Humber	6,451	8.54%
115.	Brecon and Radnorshire	Wales	7,131	8.63%
116.	Camborne and Redruth	South West	8,700	8.64%
117.	Colchester	East of England	9,423	8.83%
118.	Bishop Auckland	North East	7,962	8.89%
119.	Cambridgeshire South East	East of England	11,490	8.92%
120.	Bournemouth East	South West	8,806	8.94%
121.	Stevenage	East of England	8,562	8.98%
122.	Bolton West	North West	8,855	8.98%
123.	York Outer	Yorkshire and the Humber	9,985	9.02%
124.	Woking	South East	9,767	9.05%
125.	Taunton Deane	South West	11,700	9.18%
126.	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Wales	7,745	9.20%
127.	Wantage	South East	12,653	9.42%
128.	Shrewsbury and Atcham	West Midlands	11,217	9.50%
129.	Gloucester	South West	10,277	9.56%
130.	Carlisle	North West	8,319	9.70%
131.	Rossendale and Darwen	North West	9,522	9.75%
132.	Chippenham	South West	11,288	9.88%
133.	Monmouth	Wales	9,982	9.94%
134.	Macclesfield	North West	10,711	9.94%
135.	Scarborough and Whitby	Yorkshire and the Humber	10,270	10.33%
136.	Croydon South	London	12,339	10.39%
137.	South Ribble	North West	11,199	10.41%
138.	Welwyn Hatfield	East of England	10,955	10.52%
139.	Mole Valley	South East	12,041	10.54%
140.	Romsey and Southampton North	South East	10,872	10.58%
141.	Morley and Outwood	Yorkshire and the Humber	11,267	10.85%
142.	Erewash	East Midlands	10,606	10.86%
143.	Thanet South	South East	10,587	10.97%
144.	Bournemouth West	South West	10,150	11.04%
145.	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	North West	8,596	11.08%
146.	Great Grimsby	Yorkshire and the Humber	7,331	11.08%
147.	Kingswood	South West	11,220	11.38%
148.	Hexham	North East	10,549	11.43%
149.	Dorset West	South West	14,106	11.58%
150.	Hertfordshire South West	East of England	14,408	11.77%
151.	Thornbury and Yate	South West	12,369	11.84%
152.	Bromley and Chislehurst	London	10,891	11.95%
153.	Henley	South East	14,053	11.96%
154.	Chelsea and Fulham	London	11,241	12.00%
155.	Thurrock	East of England	11,482	12.09%
156.	Dover	South East	12,278	12.11%
157.	Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East	North East	11,626	12.16%
158.	Totnes	South West	12,724	12.19%
159.	Witney	South East	15,177	12.38%
160.	Telford	West Midlands	10,941	12.77%
161.	Basingstoke	South East	14,198	12.97%
162.	Somerset North East	South West	14,729	13.08%
163.	Derbyshire North East	East Midlands	12,876	13.08%
164.	Rugby	West Midlands	13,447	13.23%
165.	Eastleigh	South East	15,607	13.23%
166.	Rochford and Southend East	East of England	12,286	13.31%
167.	Devon North	South West	14,813	13.33%
168.	Banbury	South East	16,813	13.36%
169.	Newbury	South East	16,047	13.37%
170.	Tunbridge Wells	South East	14,645	13.40%
171.	Worthing West	South East	14,823	13.56%
172.	Beaconsfield	South East	15,712	13.58%
173.	Yeovil	South West	16,181	13.65%
174.	Bassetlaw	East Midlands	14,013	13.78%
175.	Stafford	West Midlands	14,377	14.05%
176.	Beckenham	London	14,258	14.10%
177.	Somerset North	South West	17,536	14.13%
178.	Norfolk North	East of England	14,395	14.16%
179.	Hemel Hempstead	East of England	14,563	14.20%
180.	Stoke-on-Trent South	West Midlands	11,271	14.23%
181.	Halesowen and Rowley Regis	West Midlands	12,074	14.26%
182.	Cornwall North	South West	14,752	14.27%
183.	Aylesbury	South East	17,373	14.34%
184.	Sussex Mid	South East	18,197	14.50%
185.	Nuneaton	West Midlands	13,144	14.54%
186.	Chesham and Amersham	South East	16,223	14.57%
187.	Plymouth Moor View	South West	12,897	14.58%
188.	Swindon North	South West	16,171	14.67%
189.	Somerton and Frome	South West	19,213	14.80%
190.	St Austell and Newquay	South West	16,526	14.81%
191.	Stourbridge	West Midlands	13,571	14.85%
192.	Burton	West Midlands	14,496	14.87%
193.	Elmet and Rothwell	Yorkshire and the Humber	17,353	14.90%
194.	Epsom and Ewell	South East	17,873	15.03%
195.	Harborough	East Midlands	17,278	15.07%
196.	Bexleyheath and Crayford	London	13,103	15.15%
197.	Dorset Mid and Poole North	South West	14,898	15.22%
198.	Devon Central	South West	17,721	15.26%
199.	Sherwood	East Midlands	16,186	15.35%
200.	Weston-Super-Mare	South West	17,121	15.39%
201.	Forest of Dean	South West	15,869	15.41%
202.	Chelmsford	East of England	17,621	15.42%
203.	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	London	16,394	15.49%
204.	Southend West	East of England	14,459	15.53%
205.	Derbyshire Mid	East Midlands	15,385	15.59%
206.	Surrey Heath	South East	18,349	15.64%
207.	Dudley North	West Midlands	11,533	15.72%
208.	Wyre and Preston North	North West	16,781	15.85%
209.	Isle of Wight	South East	23,737	15.94%
210.	Buckingham	South East	20,411	16.08%
211.	Wiltshire North	South West	17,626	16.09%
212.	Congleton	North West	18,561	16.22%
213.	Harlow	East of England	14,063	16.22%
214.	Hertford and Stortford	East of England	19,620	16.32%
215.	Walsall North	West Midlands	11,965	16.37%
216.	Gravesham	South East	15,581	16.38%
217.	Huntingdon	East of England	19,383	16.39%
218.	Hertfordshire North East	East of England	18,189	16.44%
219.	Rochester and Strood	South East	17,072	16.44%
220.	Gillingham and Rainham	South East	15,119	16.45%
221.	Cotswolds, The	South West	20,214	16.52%
222.	Mansfield	East Midlands	16,306	16.55%
223.	Newton Abbot	South West	17,501	16.65%
224.	Ribble Valley	North West	18,439	16.68%
225.	Maidenhead	South East	18,846	16.68%
226.	Horsham	South East	21,127	16.70%
227.	Dorset South	South West	17,153	16.80%
228.	Kettering	East Midlands	16,765	16.98%
229.	Norfolk South	East of England	21,275	17.02%
230.	Hampshire North East	South East	20,211	17.05%
231.	Runnymede and Weybridge	South East	18,270	17.14%
232.	Portsmouth North	South East	15,780	17.19%
233.	Reigate	South East	18,310	17.22%
234.	Hampshire East	South East	19,696	17.31%
235.	Derbyshire Dales	East Midlands	17,381	17.38%
236.	Eddisbury	North West	18,443	17.41%
237.	Aldershot	South East	16,698	17.42%
238.	Bedfordshire South West	East of England	18,583	17.43%
239.	Chichester	South East	21,490	17.54%
240.	Torbay	South West	17,749	17.60%
241.	Waveney	East of England	18,002	17.60%
242.	Suffolk Coastal	East of England	20,533	17.61%
243.	Berwick-upon-Tweed	North East	14,835	17.61%
244.	Dartford	South East	19,160	17.73%
245.	Montgomeryshire	Wales	12,138	17.74%
246.	Tatton	North West	17,387	17.75%
247.	Fylde	North West	16,611	17.80%
248.	Thanet North	South East	17,189	17.84%
249.	Selby and Ainsty	Yorkshire and the Humber	20,137	17.85%
250.	Wellingborough	East Midlands	18,540	17.86%
251.	Folkestone and Hythe	South East	21,337	18.08%
252.	Derbyshire South	East Midlands	19,335	18.11%
253.	Stratford-on-Avon	West Midlands	19,972	18.14%
254.	Redditch	West Midlands	16,036	18.20%
255.	Bracknell	South East	19,829	18.24%
256.	Tewkesbury	South West	22,410	18.33%
257.	Arundel and South Downs	South East	22,521	18.34%
258.	Salisbury	South West	19,736	18.37%
259.	Sutton Coldfield	West Midlands	19,272	18.42%
260.	Amber Valley	East Midlands	16,886	18.53%
261.	Spelthorne	South East	18,393	18.58%
262.	Bedfordshire North East	East of England	24,283	18.67%
263.	Windsor	South East	20,079	18.68%
264.	Staffordshire Moorlands	West Midlands	16,428	18.82%
265.	Romford	London	17,893	18.94%
266.	Poole	South West	19,116	18.95%
267.	Leicestershire North West	East Midlands	20,400	18.95%
268.	Bedfordshire Mid	East of England	24,664	19.06%
269.	Beverley and Holderness	Yorkshire and the Humber	20,448	19.10%
270.	Wrekin, The	West Midlands	18,726	19.15%
271.	Broadland	East of England	21,861	19.18%
272.	Solihull	West Midlands	21,273	19.22%
273.	Kenilworth and Southam	West Midlands	20,353	19.35%
274.	Penrith and The Border	North West	18,519	19.36%
275.	Harwich and Essex North	East of England	20,182	19.42%
276.	Cornwall South East	South West	20,971	19.54%
277.	Warwickshire North	West Midlands	17,956	19.55%
278.	Wiltshire South West	South West	21,630	19.70%
279.	Hereford and Herefordshire South	West Midlands	19,686	19.83%
280.	Newark	East Midlands	21,816	19.92%
281.	Ashford	South East	24,029	20.00%
282.	Stone	West Midlands	19,945	20.01%
283.	Devon South West	South West	21,430	20.08%
284.	Norfolk Mid	East of England	22,594	20.11%
285.	Cambridgeshire North West	East of England	25,983	20.13%
286.	Surrey East	South East	24,040	20.14%
287.	Bury St Edmunds	East of England	24,988	20.17%
288.	Skipton and Ripon	Yorkshire and the Humber	23,694	20.17%
289.	Charnwood	East Midlands	22,397	20.23%
290.	Shropshire North	West Midlands	22,949	20.30%
291.	Great Yarmouth	East of England	17,663	20.32%
292.	Tiverton and Honiton	South West	24,239	20.33%
293.	Hertsmere	East of England	21,313	20.41%
294.	Haltemprice and Howden	Yorkshire and the Humber	20,329	20.42%
295.	Sevenoaks	South East	20,818	20.43%
296.	Old Bexley and Sidcup	London	18,952	20.54%
297.	Northamptonshire South	East Midlands	27,761	20.75%
298.	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	East of England	23,391	20.79%
299.	Leicestershire South	East Midlands	24,004	20.88%
300.	Devon West and Torridge	South West	24,992	20.92%
301.	Wealden	South East	25,655	21.06%
302.	Maidstone and The Weald	South East	21,772	21.06%
303.	Meriden	West Midlands	22,836	21.08%
304.	Wyre Forest	West Midlands	21,413	21.18%
305.	Meon Valley	South East	23,555	21.19%
306.	Bridgwater and Somerset West	South West	24,439	21.20%
307.	Broxbourne	East of England	19,807	21.20%
308.	Dudley South	West Midlands	15,565	21.28%
309.	Bromsgrove	West Midlands	23,106	21.29%
310.	Worcestershire West	West Midlands	24,499	21.29%
311.	Tamworth	West Midlands	19,634	21.32%
312.	Norfolk North West	East of England	19,922	21.37%
313.	Chatham and Aylesford	South East	18,540	21.39%
314.	Suffolk South	East of England	22,897	21.40%
315.	Cannock Chase	West Midlands	19,879	21.46%
316.	Yorkshire East	Yorkshire and the Humber	22,787	21.59%
317.	Hornchurch and Upminster	London	23,308	21.59%
318.	Dorset North	South West	24,301	21.66%
319.	Faversham and Kent Mid	South East	21,976	21.80%
320.	Saffron Walden	East of England	27,594	21.87%
321.	Lichfield	West Midlands	23,638	21.89%
322.	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	South East	22,503	21.97%
323.	Basildon South and Thurrock East	East of England	19,922	21.99%
324.	Bexhill and Battle	South East	26,059	22.05%
325.	Epping Forest	East of England	22,173	22.05%
326.	Thirsk and Malton	Yorkshire and the Humber	25,154	22.23%
327.	Hampshire North West	South East	26,308	22.33%
328.	Gainsborough	East Midlands	22,967	22.50%
329.	Suffolk West	East of England	23,194	22.55%
330.	Daventry	East Midlands	26,080	22.72%
331.	Fareham	South East	26,086	22.78%
332.	Orpington	London	22,378	22.97%
333.	Rutland and Melton	East Midlands	26,924	23.09%
334.	Cleethorpes	Yorkshire and the Humber	21,418	23.11%
335.	Basildon and Billericay	East of England	20,412	23.13%
336.	Grantham and Stamford	East Midlands	26,003	23.22%
337.	Bosworth	East Midlands	26,278	23.28%
338.	Ludlow	West Midlands	23,648	23.54%
339.	Devizes	South West	23,993	23.54%
340.	Richmond (Yorks)	Yorkshire and the Humber	27,210	23.58%
341.	Tonbridge and Malling	South East	26,941	23.63%
342.	Christchurch	South West	24,617	23.69%
343.	Havant	South East	21,792	23.71%
344.	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	South East	24,479	23.82%
345.	Gosport	South East	23,278	24.02%
346.	New Forest West	South East	24,403	24.25%
347.	Herefordshire North	West Midlands	24,856	24.35%
348.	Witham	East of England	24,082	24.40%
349.	Braintree	East of England	24,673	24.43%
350.	Sleaford and North Hykeham	East Midlands	32,565	24.47%
351.	New Forest East	South East	25,251	24.86%
352.	Worcestershire Mid	West Midlands	28,018	24.96%
353.	Aldridge-Brownhills	West Midlands	19,836	25.21%
354.	Brigg and Goole	Yorkshire and the Humber	21,941	25.28%
355.	Norfolk South West	East of England	26,195	25.45%
356.	Brentwood and Ongar	East of England	29,065	27.45%
357.	Louth and Horncastle	East Midlands	28,868	27.58%
358.	Rayleigh and Wickford	East of England	31,000	28.23%
359.	Staffordshire South	West Midlands	28,250	28.25%
360.	Cambridgeshire North East	East of England	29,993	28.31%
361.	Clacton	East of England	24,702	28.39%
362.	Maldon	East of England	30,041	29.80%
363.	Castle Point	East of England	26,634	30.08%
364.	Boston and Skegness	East Midlands	25,621	30.72%
365.	South Holland and The Deepings	East Midlands	30,838	31.35%

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by percentage majority)


Rank	Constituency	Region	Majority	Swing to Defeat
1.	Eastwood	West Scotland	2,216	2.59%
2.	Galloway and West Dumfries	South Scotland	2,635	3.54%
3.	Aberdeenshire West	North East Scotland	3,390	4.06%
4.	Dumfriesshire	South Scotland	4,066	4.97%
5.	Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire	South Scotland	6,863	9.52%

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Senedd Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Senedd election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Senedd election.

(order by percentage majority)


Rank	Constituency	Region	Majority	Swing to Defeat
1.	Vale of Clwyd	North Wales	366	0.70%
2.	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Mid and West Wales	936	1.48%
3.	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Mid and West Wales	1,400	2.22%
4.	Monmouth	South Wales East	3,845	5.36%
5.	Brecon and Radnorshire	Mid and West Wales	3,820	5.95%
6.	Clwyd West	North Wales	3,685	6.50%
7.	Aberconwy	North Wales	3,336	7.08%
8.	Montgomeryshire	Mid and West Wales	7,528	15.06%

View Conservative target seats for the next Senedd election.

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