Conservative Defence

Below are lists of Conservative marginal seats showing which constituencies won in the latest elections can be most easily lost.

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Conservative Defence 2029

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2029 general election based on the 2024 boundaries. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the most vulnerable seats to the safest.


		Constituency	Region	Majority	Swing To Beat
	1	Basildon and Billericay	East of England	20	0.02%
	2	Devon Central	South West	61	0.06%
	3	Havant	South East	92	0.11%
	4	Exmouth and Exeter East	South West	121	0.12%
	5	Beverley and Holderness	Yorkshire and the Humber	124	0.14%
	6	Bromley and Biggin Hill	London	302	0.32%
	7	Fylde	North West	561	0.58%
	8	Broadland and Fakenham	East of England	719	0.73%
	9	Godalming and Ash	South East	891	0.81%
	10	Wrekin, The	West Midlands	883	0.88%
	11	Wyre Forest	West Midlands	812	0.90%
	12	Gordon and Buchan	Scotland	878	1.00%
	13	Dumfries and Galloway	Scotland	930	1.02%
	14	Tatton	North West	1,136	1.09%
	15	Harwich and Essex North	East of England	1,162	1.21%
	16	Farnham and Bordon	South East	1,349	1.27%
	17	Hampshire East	South East	1,275	1.27%
	18	Bedfordshire Mid	East of England	1,321	1.33%
	19	Staffordshire Moorlands	West Midlands	1,175	1.36%
	20	Hereford and Herefordshire South	West Midlands	1,279	1.40%
	21	Huntingdon	East of England	1,499	1.44%
	22	Skipton and Ripon	Yorkshire and the Humber	1,650	1.54%
	23	Shropshire South	West Midlands	1,624	1.57%
	24	Faversham and Mid Kent	South East	1,469	1.58%
	25	Dorset North	South West	1,589	1.60%
	26	Romford	London	1,463	1.66%
	27	Bridgwater	South West	1,349	1.68%
	28	Spelthorne	South East	1,590	1.72%
	29	Keighley and Ilkley	Yorkshire and the Humber	1,625	1.76%
	30	Maidstone and Malling	South East	1,674	1.80%
	31	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	South East	1,765	1.85%
	32	Devon South West	South West	2,112	2.02%
	33	Hornchurch and Upminster	London	1,943	2.07%
	34	Romsey and Southampton North	South East	2,191	2.19%
	35	Stockton West	North East	2,139	2.20%
	36	Leicestershire Mid	East Midlands	2,201	2.29%
	37	Croydon South	London	2,313	2.34%
	38	Harborough, Oadby and Wigston	East Midlands	2,378	2.36%
	39	Essex North West	East of England	2,610	2.40%
	40	Herne Bay and Sandwich	South East	2,499	2.56%
	41	Sutton Coldfield	West Midlands	2,543	2.63%
	42	Bexhill and Battle	South East	2,657	2.78%
	43	Daventry	East Midlands	3,012	2.84%
	44	Chester South and Eddisbury	North West	3,057	2.91%
	45	Bromsgrove	West Midlands	3,016	2.99%
	46	Reigate	South East	3,187	3.00%
	47	Suffolk South	East of England	3,047	3.12%
	48	Hampshire North West	South East	3,288	3.23%
	49	Broxbourne	East of England	2,858	3.33%
	50	Norfolk Mid	East of England	3,054	3.33%
	51	Newark	East Midlands	3,572	3.34%
	52	Cotswolds North	South West	3,357	3.34%
	53	Northamptonshire South	East Midlands	3,687	3.43%
	54	Wiltshire South West	South West	3,243	3.51%
	55	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	Scotland	3,441	3.51%
	56	Suffolk West	East of England	3,247	3.52%
	57	Goole and Pocklington	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,572	3.59%
	58	Bridlington and the Wolds	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,125	3.64%
	59	Old Bexley and Sidcup	London	3,548	3.72%
	60	Braintree	East of England	3,670	3.74%
	61	Gainsborough	East Midlands	3,532	3.78%
	62	Salisbury	South West	3,807	3.79%
63	Brigg and Immingham	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,243	3.81%
64	Torridge and Tavistock	South West	3,950	3.89%
65	Castle Point	East of England	3,251	4.00%
66	Hamble Valley	South East	4,802	4.45%
67	Sleaford and North Hykeham	East Midlands	4,346	4.47%
68	Hertfordshire South West	East of England	4,456	4.62%
69	Suffolk Central and Ipswich North	East of England	4,290	4.62%
70	Wetherby and Easingwold	Yorkshire and the Humber	4,846	4.64%
71	Leicester East	East Midlands	4,426	4.74%
72	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Scotland	4,242	4.80%
73	Grantham and Bourne	East Midlands	4,496	4.87%
74	Isle of Wight East	South East	3,323	4.88%
75	Chingford and Woodford Green	London	4,757	4.90%
76	Solihull West and Shirley	West Midlands	4,620	4.93%
77	Wiltshire East	South West	4,716	5.00%
78	Witham	East of England	5,145	5.08%
79	Meriden and Solihull East	West Midlands	4,584	5.20%
80	Aldridge-Brownhills	West Midlands	4,294	5.25%
81	Bedfordshire North	East of England	5,414	5.25%
82	Leicestershire South	East Midlands	5,506	5.36%
83	Buckinghamshire Mid	South East	5,872	5.44%
84	Sevenoaks	South East	5,440	5.45%
85	Orpington	London	5,118	5.55%
86	Norfolk North West	East of England	4,954	5.56%
87	Hinckley and Bosworth	East Midlands	5,408	5.66%
88	Beaconsfield	South East	5,455	5.71%
89	Rayleigh and Wickford	East of England	5,621	5.86%
90	Melton and Syston	East Midlands	5,396	5.87%
91	Louth and Horncastle	East Midlands	5,506	5.92%
92	Worcestershire West	West Midlands	6,547	5.99%
93	New Forest West	South East	5,600	6.04%
94	Fareham and Waterlooville	South East	6,079	6.06%
95	Kenilworth and Southam	West Midlands	6,574	6.16%
96	Brentwood and Ongar	East of England	5,980	6.19%
97	Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge	West Midlands	5,466	6.39%
98	Epping Forest	East of England	5,682	6.80%
99	Gosport	South East	6,054	6.84%
100	Maldon	East of England	6,906	6.93%
101	Sussex Weald	South East	6,842	6.96%
102	Kingswinford and Staffordshire South	West Midlands	6,303	6.98%
103	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Scotland	6,599	7.09%
104	Windsor	South East	6,457	7.14%
105	South Holland and the Deepings	East Midlands	6,856	7.46%
106	Surrey East	South East	7,450	7.57%
107	Thirsk and Malton	Yorkshire and the Humber	7,550	7.58%
108	Christchurch	South West	7,455	7.87%
109	Runnymede and Weybridge	South East	7,627	7.90%
110	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	London	7,581	8.05%
111	Weald of Kent	South East	8,422	8.30%
112	Hertsmere	East of England	7,992	8.32%
113	East Grinstead and Uckfield	South East	8,480	8.41%
114	Droitwich and Evesham	West Midlands	8,995	9.07%
115	Cambridgeshire North East	East of England	7,189	9.18%
116	New Forest East	South East	8,495	9.39%
117	Rutland and Stamford	East Midlands	10,394	10.70%
118	Arundel and South Downs	South East	12,134	11.08%
119	Tonbridge	South East	11,166	11.09%
120	Harrow East	London	11,680	12.22%
121	Richmond and Northallerton	Yorkshire and the Humber	12,185	12.56%

2029 General Election

Poll of Polls

Seat-By-Seat Forecast

Custom Swingometer 2029

LAB - Targets | Defence

CON - Targets | Defence

LD - Targets | Defence

REF - Targets | Defence

GRN - Targets | Defence

2024 General Election Results