Senedd Election 2021 (New Boundaries (Our Estimate)) Results

Here are the results of the 2021 Senedd election using our estimate of the new boundaries.

HUNG PARLIAMENT

Labour
short by
2

49 seats needed for a majority

Parliament

Party		Seats
	Labour	47
	Conservative	28
	Plaid Cymru	21

Constituency Summary

Party		Seats	Votes	Votes (%)
	Labour	47	401,771	36.17%
	Conservative	28	278,560	25.08%
	Plaid Cymru	21	230,163	20.72%
	Green	0	48,715	4.39%
	Liberal Democrat	0	48,217	4.34%
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	0	41,477	3.73%
	UKIP	0	17,340	1.56%
	Reform UK	0	11,597	1.04%
	Others	0	32,956	2.97%
Turnout			1,110,796	46.49%
Electorate			2,389,255

Seat Summary

Constituency	Seats
Afan Ogwr Rhondda
Bangor Conwy Mon
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
Caerdydd Penarth
Casnewydd Islwyn
Ceredigion Penfro
Clwyd
Fflint Wrecsam
Gwynedd Maldwyn
Gwyr Abertawe
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
Sir Fynwy Torfaen
Sir Gaerfyrddin

Afan Ogwr Rhondda

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	38,922	45.85%	4
	Plaid Cymru	18,413	21.69%	1
	Conservative	13,940	16.42%	1
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	3,040	3.58%	0
	Green	2,564	3.02%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,798	2.12%	0
	UKIP	1,264	1.49%	0
	Reform UK	967	1.14%	0
	Others	3,979	4.69%	0
Majority		20,509	24.16%
Turnout		84,887	43.39%
Electorate		195,638

Bangor Conwy Mon

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Plaid Cymru	31,822	38.62%	3
	Labour	20,850	25.30%	2
	Conservative	19,475	23.63%	1
	Green	2,633	3.20%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,251	2.73%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,948	2.36%	0
	UKIP	1,068	1.30%	0
	Reform UK	872	1.06%	0
	Others	1,485	1.80%	0
Majority		10,972	13.31%
Turnout		82,404	51.10%
Electorate		161,257

Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	32,226	44.45%	4
	Plaid Cymru	16,056	22.15%	1
	Conservative	11,935	16.46%	1
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	3,619	4.99%	0
	Green	2,476	3.42%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,562	2.15%	0
	UKIP	1,518	2.09%	0
	Reform UK	984	1.36%	0
	Others	2,120	2.92%	0
Majority		16,170	22.30%
Turnout		72,496	40.96%
Electorate		176,980

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	28,437	35.00%	3
	Conservative	19,649	24.18%	2
	Plaid Cymru	13,425	16.52%	1
	Liberal Democrat	8,128	10.00%	0
	Green	3,575	4.40%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	3,524	4.34%	0
	UKIP	1,312	1.61%	0
	Reform UK	688	0.85%	0
	Others	2,514	3.09%	0
Majority		8,788	10.82%
Turnout		81,252	46.47%
Electorate		174,838

Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	33,665	38.64%	3
	Conservative	19,790	22.72%	2
	Plaid Cymru	13,336	15.31%	1
	Liberal Democrat	7,370	8.46%	0
	Green	6,521	7.49%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,630	3.02%	0
	UKIP	866	0.99%	0
	Reform UK	567	0.65%	0
	Others	2,372	2.72%	0
Majority		13,875	15.93%
Turnout		87,117	49.71%
Electorate		175,238

Caerdydd Penarth

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	20,939	38.47%	3
	Plaid Cymru	10,850	19.93%	2
	Conservative	10,522	19.33%	1
	Green	3,719	6.83%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,932	3.55%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	1,508	2.77%	0
	UKIP	611	1.12%	0
	Reform UK	369	0.68%	0
	Others	3,980	7.31%	0
Majority		10,089	18.54%
Turnout		54,430	48.59%
Electorate		112,027

Casnewydd Islwyn

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	22,231	41.59%	3
	Conservative	15,686	29.35%	2
	Plaid Cymru	5,756	10.77%	1
	Green	2,751	5.15%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,336	4.37%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,834	3.43%	0
	UKIP	947	1.77%	0
	Reform UK	676	1.26%	0
	Others	1,234	2.31%	0
Majority		6,545	12.24%
Turnout		53,451	41.66%
Electorate		128,306

Ceredigion Penfro

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Plaid Cymru	22,886	29.35%	2
	Conservative	21,000	26.93%	2
	Labour	20,404	26.17%	2
	Liberal Democrat	3,776	4.84%	0
	Green	3,746	4.80%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,278	2.92%	0
	UKIP	1,263	1.62%	0
	Reform UK	962	1.23%	0
	Others	1,663	2.13%	0
Majority		1,886	2.42%
Turnout		77,978	53.05%
Electorate		146,998

Clwyd

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Conservative	24,655	35.15%	3
	Labour	24,574	35.03%	2
	Plaid Cymru	11,296	16.10%	1
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,474	3.53%	0
	Liberal Democrat	2,215	3.16%	0
	Green	1,915	2.73%	0
	UKIP	1,072	1.53%	0
	Reform UK	775	1.10%	0
	Others	1,167	1.66%	0
Majority		81	0.12%
Turnout		70,143	46.27%
Electorate		151,588

Fflint Wrecsam

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	23,320	37.87%	3
	Conservative	19,678	31.96%	2
	Plaid Cymru	8,566	13.91%	1
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,734	4.44%	0
	Liberal Democrat	2,640	4.29%	0
	Green	1,673	2.72%	0
	UKIP	1,239	2.01%	0
	Reform UK	615	1.00%	0
	Others	1,114	1.81%	0
Majority		3,642	5.91%
Turnout		61,579	41.81%
Electorate		147,300

Gwynedd Maldwyn

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Conservative	17,513	28.87%	2
	Plaid Cymru	17,344	28.59%	2
	Labour	13,026	21.47%	2
	Liberal Democrat	4,330	7.14%	0
	Green	2,513	4.14%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,318	3.82%	0
	UKIP	896	1.48%	0
	Reform UK	495	0.82%	0
	Others	2,230	3.68%	0
Majority		169	0.28%
Turnout		60,665	49.19%
Electorate		123,318

Gwyr Abertawe

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	23,406	40.93%	3
	Conservative	13,929	24.36%	2
	Plaid Cymru	9,161	16.02%	1
	Green	2,838	4.96%	0
	Liberal Democrat	2,617	4.58%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,307	4.03%	0
	UKIP	775	1.36%	0
	Reform UK	478	0.84%	0
	Others	1,676	2.93%	0
Majority		9,477	16.57%
Turnout		57,187	46.92%
Electorate		121,884

Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	20,870	36.26%	3
	Conservative	19,588	34.04%	2
	Plaid Cymru	7,294	12.67%	1
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,504	4.35%	0
	Green	2,496	4.34%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,592	2.77%	0
	UKIP	752	1.31%	0
	Reform UK	519	0.90%	0
	Others	1,937	3.37%	0
Majority		1,282	2.23%
Turnout		57,552	51.13%
Electorate		112,558

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	26,498	45.17%	4
	Plaid Cymru	12,400	21.14%	1
	Conservative	10,460	17.83%	1
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,186	3.73%	0
	Green	2,017	3.44%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,330	2.27%	0
	UKIP	967	1.65%	0
	Reform UK	771	1.31%	0
	Others	2,034	3.47%	0
Majority		14,098	24.03%
Turnout		58,663	40.38%
Electorate		145,292

Sir Fynwy Torfaen

View historical Sir Fynwy Torfaen results.

Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	25,940	36.33%	3
	Conservative	23,262	32.58%	3
	Plaid Cymru	6,825	9.56%	0
	Green	4,434	6.21%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	3,606	5.05%	0
	Liberal Democrat	3,436	4.81%	0
	UKIP	1,414	1.98%	0
	Reform UK	967	1.35%	0
	Others	1,526	2.14%	0
Majority		2,678	3.75%
Turnout		71,410	43.82%
Electorate		162,964

Sir Gaerfyrddin

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats
	Labour	26,463	33.25%	3
	Plaid Cymru	24,733	31.08%	2
	Conservative	17,478	21.96%	1
	Green	2,844	3.57%	0
	Abolish Welsh Assembly	2,162	2.72%	0
	Liberal Democrat	1,709	2.15%	0
	UKIP	1,376	1.73%	0
	Reform UK	892	1.12%	0
	Others	1,925	2.42%	0
Majority		1,730	2.17%
Turnout		79,582	51.99%
Electorate		153,069

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