2026 Scottish Parliament Election Forecast

This page has our seat by seat prediction for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. It is calculated by a weighted average of Scottish Parliament polls together with a uniform swing relative to the last election. We assume that the turnout will be the same as in the last election.

You can see in certain constituencies where the drop in the national vote for a particular party is more than that particular party had at the previous election, leading to instances where parties have zero votes, therefore emphasising a limitation of the uniform swing model. However, the seat by seat prediction is still interesting nonetheless, even when tested to the limit.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
19
65 seats needed for a majority
Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour2246+36-12+24
SNP6439+14-39-25
Conservative3123+5-13-8
Liberal Democrat411+70+7
Green810+20+2
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
SNP47.70%34.30%-13.40%62240-38-38
Labour21.59%34.08%+12.49%234+320+32
Conservative21.89%15.84%-6.05%510+50+5
Liberal Democrat6.94%8.10%+1.16%45+10+1
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour18.00%30.79%+12.79%2012+4-12-8
SNP40.30%27.33%-12.96%215+14-1+13
Conservative23.46%16.35%-7.11%26130-13-13
Green8.11%9.44%+1.33%810+20+2
Liberal Democrat5.05%8.92%+3.87%06+60+6
ALBA1.65%1.65%0.00%00000
AFU0.86%0.86%0.00%00000

These averages are based on the Scottish Parliament election polls.

Central Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Coatbridge and Chryston
SNP
HOLD
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
SNP
HOLD
East Kilbride
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Falkirk East
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Falkirk West
SNP
HOLD
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Motherwell and Wishaw
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Uddingston and Bellshill
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP


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Glasgow

Glasgow Anniesland
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Glasgow Cathcart
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Kelvin
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Pollok
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Glasgow Provan
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Glasgow Shettleston
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Glasgow Southside
SNP
HOLD
Rutherglen
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP


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Highlands and Islands

Argyll and Bute
SNP
HOLD
Caithness Sutherland and Ross
LD
GAIN FROM
SNP
Inverness and Nairn
SNP
HOLD
Moray
SNP
HOLD
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Orkney
LD
HOLD
Shetland
LD
HOLD
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
SNP
HOLD


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Lothian

Almond Valley
SNP
HOLD
Edinburgh Central
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Edinburgh Eastern
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Edinburgh Northern and Leith
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Edinburgh Pentlands
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Edinburgh Southern
LAB
HOLD
Edinburgh Western
LD
HOLD
Linlithgow
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP


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Mid Scotland and Fife

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Cowdenbeath
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Dunfermline
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Kirkcaldy
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Mid Fife and Glenrothes
SNP
HOLD
North East Fife
LD
HOLD
Perthshire North
SNP
HOLD
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Stirling
SNP
HOLD


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North East Scotland

Aberdeen Central
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Aberdeen Donside
SNP
HOLD
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Aberdeenshire East
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Aberdeenshire West
CON
HOLD
Angus North and Mearns
SNP
HOLD
Angus South
SNP
HOLD
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Dundee City East
SNP
HOLD
Dundee City West
SNP
HOLD


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South Scotland

Ayr
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Clydesdale
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Dumfriesshire
CON
HOLD
East Lothian
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire
CON
HOLD
Galloway and West Dumfries
CON
HOLD
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
SNP
HOLD
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
SNP
HOLD


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West Scotland

Clydebank and Milngavie
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Cunninghame North
SNP
HOLD
Cunninghame South
SNP
HOLD
Dumbarton
LAB
HOLD
Eastwood
CON
HOLD
Greenock and Inverclyde
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Paisley
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Renfrewshire North and West
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Renfrewshire South
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
SNP
HOLD


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2024 General Election
Latest Posts
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posted 22 May 2024, 17:45
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posted 12 May 2024, 10:15
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posted 27 Apr 2024, 19:45