2026 Scottish Parliament Election Forecast

This page has our seat by seat prediction for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. It is calculated by a weighted average of Scottish Parliament polls together with a uniform swing relative to the last election. We assume that the turnout will be the same as in the last election.

You can see in certain constituencies where the drop in the national vote for a particular party is more than that particular party had at the previous election, leading to instances where parties have zero votes, therefore emphasising a limitation of the uniform swing model. However, the seat by seat prediction is still interesting nonetheless, even when tested to the limit.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
SNP
short by
13
65 seats needed for a majority
Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
SNP64520-12-12
Labour2220+3-5-2
Conservative3116+5-20-15
Reform UK015+150+15
Liberal Democrat414+100+10
Green811+30+3
ALBA01+10+1
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
SNP47.70%32.58%-15.13%62520-10-10
Labour21.59%20.18%-1.41%25+30+3
Reform UK0.00%13.00%+13.00%00000
Conservative21.89%12.79%-9.10%510+50+5
Liberal Democrat6.94%9.21%+2.28%45+10+1
Green1.29%8.42%+7.13%01+10+1
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
SNP40.30%27.36%-12.93%200-2-2
Labour18.00%17.36%-0.64%20150-5-5
Conservative23.46%13.39%-10.07%2660-20-20
Liberal Democrat5.05%11.82%+6.77%09+90+9
Reform UK0.21%11.79%+11.57%015+150+15
Green8.11%11.42%+3.31%810+20+2
ALBA1.65%5.03%+3.38%01+10+1

These averages are based on the Scottish Parliament election polls.

Download Options

Central Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts
SNP
HOLD
Coatbridge and Chryston
SNP
HOLD
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
SNP
HOLD
East Kilbride
SNP
HOLD
Falkirk East
SNP
HOLD
Falkirk West
SNP
HOLD
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Motherwell and Wishaw
SNP
HOLD
Uddingston and Bellshill
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

Glasgow

Glasgow Anniesland
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Cathcart
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Kelvin
GRN
GAIN FROM
SNP
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Pollok
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Provan
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Shettleston
SNP
HOLD
Glasgow Southside
SNP
HOLD
Rutherglen
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP


Return to Top

Highlands and Islands

Argyll and Bute
SNP
HOLD
Caithness Sutherland and Ross
LD
GAIN FROM
SNP
Inverness and Nairn
SNP
HOLD
Moray
SNP
HOLD
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)
SNP
HOLD
Orkney
LD
HOLD
Shetland
LD
HOLD
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

Lothian

Almond Valley
SNP
HOLD
Edinburgh Central
SNP
HOLD
Edinburgh Eastern
SNP
HOLD
Edinburgh Northern and Leith
SNP
HOLD
Edinburgh Pentlands
SNP
HOLD
Edinburgh Southern
LAB
HOLD
Edinburgh Western
LD
HOLD
Linlithgow
SNP
HOLD
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

Mid Scotland and Fife

Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
SNP
HOLD
Cowdenbeath
SNP
HOLD
Dunfermline
SNP
HOLD
Kirkcaldy
SNP
HOLD
Mid Fife and Glenrothes
SNP
HOLD
North East Fife
LD
HOLD
Perthshire North
SNP
HOLD
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Stirling
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

North East Scotland

Aberdeen Central
SNP
HOLD
Aberdeen Donside
SNP
HOLD
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Aberdeenshire East
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Aberdeenshire West
CON
HOLD
Angus North and Mearns
SNP
HOLD
Angus South
SNP
HOLD
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Dundee City East
SNP
HOLD
Dundee City West
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

South Scotland

Ayr
CON
GAIN FROM
SNP
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
SNP
HOLD
Clydesdale
SNP
HOLD
Dumfriesshire
CON
HOLD
East Lothian
LAB
GAIN FROM
SNP
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire
CON
HOLD
Galloway and West Dumfries
CON
HOLD
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
SNP
HOLD
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

West Scotland

Clydebank and Milngavie
SNP
HOLD
Cunninghame North
SNP
HOLD
Cunninghame South
SNP
HOLD
Dumbarton
LAB
HOLD
Eastwood
CON
HOLD
Greenock and Inverclyde
SNP
HOLD
Paisley
SNP
HOLD
Renfrewshire North and West
SNP
HOLD
Renfrewshire South
SNP
HOLD
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
SNP
HOLD


Return to Top

2029 General Election
Latest Posts
New Senedd Election System
posted 20 Oct 2024, 11:00
Historical Battlegrounds
posted 28 Jul 2024, 11:30
Website Updated with the 2024 General Election Results
posted 5 Jul 2024, 12:00