2026 Senedd Election Forecast

This page has our seat by seat prediction for the 2026 Senedd election. It is calculated by a weighted average of Senedd polls together with a uniform swing relative to the last election. We assume that the turnout will be the same as in the last election.

You can see in certain constituencies where the drop in the national vote for a particular party is more than that particular party had at the previous election, leading to instances where parties have zero votes, therefore emphasising a limitation of the uniform swing model. However, the seat by seat prediction is still interesting nonetheless, even when tested to the limit.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
1
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour3030+1-10
Plaid Cymru13120-1-1
Conservative16110-5-5
Reform UK06+60+6
Liberal Democrat11000
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour39.85%37.00%-2.85%2728+10+1
Plaid Cymru20.27%22.00%+1.73%55000
Conservative26.07%21.00%-5.07%870-1-1
Reform UK1.57%10.00%+8.43%00000
Liberal Democrat4.88%4.00%-0.88%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour36.17%33.00%-3.17%320-1-1
Plaid Cymru20.72%19.00%-1.72%870-1-1
Conservative25.08%18.00%-7.08%840-4-4
Reform UK1.06%12.00%+10.94%06+60+6
Liberal Democrat4.34%7.00%+2.66%11000
Green4.39%6.00%+1.61%00000
Abolish the Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%0.00%00000

These averages are based on the Senedd election polls.

South Wales East

Blaenau Gwent
LAB
HOLD
Caerphilly
LAB
HOLD
Islwyn
LAB
HOLD
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
LAB
HOLD
Monmouth
CON
HOLD
Newport East
LAB
HOLD
Newport West
LAB
HOLD
Torfaen
LAB
HOLD


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South Wales Central

Cardiff Central
LAB
HOLD
Cardiff North
LAB
HOLD
Cardiff South and Penarth
LAB
HOLD
Cardiff West
LAB
HOLD
Cynon Valley
LAB
HOLD
Pontypridd
LAB
HOLD
Rhondda
LAB
HOLD
Vale of Glamorgan
LAB
HOLD


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South Wales West

Aberavon
LAB
HOLD
Bridgend
LAB
HOLD
Gower
LAB
HOLD
Neath
LAB
HOLD
Ogmore
LAB
HOLD
Swansea East
LAB
HOLD
Swansea West
LAB
HOLD


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Mid and West Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire
CON
HOLD
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
PC
HOLD
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
CON
HOLD
Ceredigion
PC
HOLD
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
PC
HOLD
Llanelli
LAB
HOLD
Montgomeryshire
CON
HOLD
Preseli Pembrokeshire
CON
HOLD


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North Wales

Aberconwy
CON
HOLD
Alyn and Deeside
LAB
HOLD
Arfon
PC
HOLD
Clwyd South
LAB
HOLD
Clwyd West
CON
HOLD
Delyn
LAB
HOLD
Vale of Clwyd
LAB
GAIN FROM
CON
Wrexham
LAB
HOLD
Ynys Mon
PC
HOLD


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2024 General Election
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posted 22 May 2024, 17:45
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posted 12 May 2024, 10:15
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posted 27 Apr 2024, 19:45