This page has our seat by seat prediction for the 2026 Senedd election. It is calculated by a weighted average of Senedd polls together with a uniform swing relative to the last election. We assume that the turnout will be the same as in the last election.
You can see in certain constituencies where the drop in the national vote for a particular party is more than that particular party had at the previous election, leading to instances where parties have zero votes, therefore emphasising a limitation of the uniform swing model. However, the seat by seat prediction is still interesting nonetheless, even when tested to the limit.
| Seats | Seat Changes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Labour | 30 | 30 | +1 | -1 | 0 | |
| Conservative | 16 | 12 | 0 | -4 | -4 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 13 | 12 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| Reform UK | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Labour | 39.85% | 37.00% | -2.85% | 27 | 28 | +1 | 0 | +1 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.27% | 22.00% | +1.73% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conservative | 26.07% | 21.00% | -5.07% | 8 | 7 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| Reform UK | 1.57% | 10.00% | +8.43% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.88% | 4.00% | -0.88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Labour | 36.17% | 37.00% | +0.83% | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| Conservative | 25.08% | 20.00% | -5.08% | 8 | 5 | 0 | -3 | -3 | |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.72% | 20.00% | -0.72% | 8 | 7 | 0 | -1 | -1 | |
| Reform UK | 1.06% | 10.00% | +8.94% | 0 | 5 | +5 | 0 | +5 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.34% | 5.00% | +0.66% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abolish the Welsh Assembly | 3.73% | 3.73% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Green | 4.39% | 3.00% | -1.39% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
These averages are based on the Senedd election polls.
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