On this page are the latest Senedd election polls for the 2026 Senedd election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. The seat calculations are from the 2026 Senedd swingometer. Note that these calculations use our estimate of the new boundaries.
Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2026 Senedd election polling average is calculated is available here.
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net | |
| Plaid Cymru | 20.72% | 30.00% | +9.28% | 21 | 37 | +16 | 0 | +16 | |
| Reform UK | 1.04% | 29.00% | +27.96% | 0 | 33 | +33 | 0 | +33 | |
| Labour | 36.17% | 14.00% | -22.17% | 47 | 16 | 0 | -31 | -31 | |
| Conservative | 25.08% | 11.00% | -14.08% | 28 | 8 | 0 | -20 | -20 | |
| Green | 4.39% | 6.00% | +1.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liberal Democrat | 4.34% | 6.00% | +1.66% | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | +2 | |
| Abolish Welsh Assembly | 3.73% | 3.73% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
See which seats have changed hands using our Senedd seat calculator.
At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2026 Senedd election polls for the next Senedd election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Senedd swingometer.
| Last Day of Field Work | Pollster / Client | Sample Size | Weight | LAB | CON | PC | GRN | LD | REF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | YouGov / Barn Cymru / ITV Cymru Wales / Cardiff University | 1,232 | 1.00 | 14 | 11 | 30 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| 3 Jul 2025 | Beaufort Research / Nation Cymru | 400 | - | 27 | 13 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 2 |
| 3 Jul 2025 | More in Common / Sky News | 883 | - | 23 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 2 |
| 16 Jun 2025 | Find Out Now | 2,101 | - | 18 | 11 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 2 |
| 30 Apr 2025 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,265 | - | 18 | 13 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 5 |
| 1 Apr 2025 | Survation | 809 | - | 27 | 15 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 3 |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Beaufort Research / Nation.Cymru | 1,000 | - | 27 | 16 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 3 |
| 29 Nov 2024 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,121 | - | 23 | 19 | 24 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| 4 Nov 2024 | Survation / Reform UK | 2,006 | - | 29 | 18 | 20 | 6 | 5 | 19 | 9 |
| 18 Jul 2024 | Welsh Election Study | 2,565 | - | 25 | 16 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| 1 Jul 2024 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,072 | - | 27 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
| 7 Jun 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 960 | - | 36 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 14 |
| 3 Jun 2024 | YouGov / Barn Cymru | 1,066 | - | 30 | 19 | 23 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 |
| 19 May 2024 | Redfield & Wilton | 900 | - | 37 | 20 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 |