Senedd Swingometer

This page contains the Senedd swingometer used to predict election results for the next Senedd election scheduled to be held in 2026. Note that these calculations use our estimate of the new boundaries.

We track the latest polls for the next Senedd election.

Senedd Election 2021 (New Boundaries (Our Estimate)) (Use for 2026)

Wales

Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Abolish Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
2
49 seats needed for a majority
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour36.17%36.17%0.00%4747000
Conservative25.08%25.08%0.00%2828000
Plaid Cymru20.72%20.72%0.00%2121000
Green4.39%4.39%0.00%00000
Liberal Democrat4.34%4.34%0.00%00000
Abolish Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%0.00%00000
Reform UK1.04%1.04%0.00%00000

Senedd Election 2021

Senedd Election 2016 (Use for 2021)

Senedd Election 2011 (Use for 2016)

2029 General Election
Latest Posts
New Senedd Election System
posted 20 Oct 2024, 11:00
Historical Battlegrounds
posted 28 Jul 2024, 11:30
Website Updated with the 2024 General Election Results
posted 5 Jul 2024, 12:00