Senedd Polling

On this page are the latest Senedd election polls for the 2026 Senedd election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. The seat calculations are from the 2026 Senedd swingometer.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
1
31 seats needed for a majority

Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2026 Senedd election polling average is calculated is available here.

Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour3030+1-10
Plaid Cymru13120-1-1
Conservative16110-5-5
Reform UK06+60+6
Liberal Democrat11000
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour39.85%37.00%-2.85%2728+10+1
Plaid Cymru20.27%22.00%+1.73%55000
Conservative26.07%21.00%-5.07%870-1-1
Reform UK1.57%10.00%+8.43%00000
Liberal Democrat4.88%4.00%-0.88%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour36.17%33.00%-3.17%320-1-1
Plaid Cymru20.72%19.00%-1.72%870-1-1
Conservative25.08%18.00%-7.08%840-4-4
Reform UK1.06%12.00%+10.94%06+60+6
Liberal Democrat4.34%7.00%+2.66%11000
Green4.39%6.00%+1.61%00000
Abolish the Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%0.00%00000
Swingometer

See which seats have changed hands using our Senedd seat calculator.

Seat Forecast

See a seat by seat breakdown of our prediction.

Map Options

At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2026 Senedd election polls for the next Senedd election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Senedd swingometer.

Constituency Polls

Labour
Conservative
Plaid Cymru
Liberal Democrat
Green
Reform UK
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABCONPCLDGRNRefUKLead
23 Apr 2024Redfield & Wilton8401.00372122431015
24 Mar 2024Redfield & Wilton878-362121331115
18 Feb 2024Redfield & Wilton874-342119431313
26 Jan 2024Redfield & Wilton1,100-39251834914
11 Dec 2023Redfield & Wilton1,086-41221773719
13 Nov 2023Redfield & Wilton1,100-40231834717
15 Oct 2023Redfield & Wilton959-37271843610
17 Sep 2023Redfield & Wilton1,172-39271856312
6 Sep 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,051-41181964822
14 Aug 2023Redfield & Wilton1,068-37212063916
16 Jul 2023Redfield & Wilton1,050-42221663720
18 Jun 2023Redfield & Wilton1,000-362219731014
17 May 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,064-40181775822
15 May 2023Redfield & Wilton1,058-38232073715
17 Apr 2023Redfield & Wilton1,251-41212054820
7 Feb 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,081-43182044923
1 Dec 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,042-44172063724
22 Sep 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,014-40202263518
16 Jun 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,020-37242165513
1 Mar 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,086-38242163514
16 Dec 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,009-40231745717
16 Sep 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,057-37271954510

Region Polls

Labour
Conservative
Plaid Cymru
Green
Liberal Democrat
Reform UK
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABCONPCGRNLDRefUKLead
23 Apr 2024Redfield & Wilton8401.00331819671214
24 Mar 2024Redfield & Wilton878-321618971114
18 Feb 2024Redfield & Wilton874-29162548104
26 Jan 2024Redfield & Wilton1,100-34192166713
11 Dec 2023Redfield & Wilton1,086-2820247874
13 Nov 2023Redfield & Wilton1,100-32211896711
15 Oct 2023Redfield & Wilton959-3121244587
17 Sep 2023Redfield & Wilton1,172-352118612514
6 Sep 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,051-34162066614
14 Aug 2023Redfield & Wilton1,068-311922610109
16 Jul 2023Redfield & Wilton1,050-332019610613
18 Jun 2023Redfield & Wilton1,000-3022206988
17 May 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,064-40181775822
7 Feb 2023YouGov / Barn Cymru1,081-39182055619
1 Dec 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,042-38162354415
22 Sep 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,014-37182155416
16 Jun 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,020-3121246567
1 Mar 2022YouGov / Barn Cymru1,086-34232046311
16 Dec 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,009-35221973513
16 Sep 2021YouGov / ITV Wales1,057-3326195427
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