Senedd Polling

On this page are the latest Senedd election polls for the 2026 Senedd election together with uniform swing calculations of the polling averages. The seat calculations are from the 2026 Senedd swingometer.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
Reform UK
short by
23
49 seats needed for a majority

Here are the polling averages of the polls below together with the seat changes on uniform swings. Information on how the 2026 Senedd election polling average is calculated is available here.

VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Plaid Cymru20.72%24.00%+3.28%2125+40+4
Labour36.17%23.00%-13.17%47250-22-22
Reform UK1.04%23.00%+21.96%026+260+26
Conservative25.08%19.00%-6.08%28200-8-8
Green4.39%6.00%+1.61%00000
Liberal Democrat4.34%5.00%+0.66%00000
Abolish Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%0.00%00000
Swingometer

See which seats have changed hands using our Senedd seat calculator.

At the bottom of this page are the most recent 2026 Senedd election polls for the next Senedd election ordered from newest to oldest. These polls should be used in conjunction with the Senedd swingometer.

Polls

Labour
Conservative
Plaid Cymru
Green
Liberal Democrat
Abolish Welsh Assembly
Reform UK
Last Day of Field WorkPollster / ClientSample SizeWeightLABCONPCGRNLDAWAREFLead
29 Nov 2024YouGov / Barn Cymru1,1211.0023192465-231
4 Nov 2024Survation / Reform UK2,006-29182065-199
18 Jul 2024Welsh Election Study2,565-251624667161
1 Jul 2024YouGov / Barn Cymru1,072-27182356-184
7 Jun 2024Redfield & Wilton960-3622186621114
3 Jun 2024YouGov / Barn Cymru1,066-30192366-127
19 May 2024Redfield & Wilton900-3720205351017
2029 General Election
Latest Posts
New Senedd Election System
posted 20 Oct 2024, 11:00
Historical Battlegrounds
posted 28 Jul 2024, 11:30
Website Updated with the 2024 General Election Results
posted 5 Jul 2024, 12:00