Senedd Swingometer
This page contains the Senedd swingometer used to predict election results for the next Senedd election scheduled to be held in 2026. Note that these calculations use our estimate of the new boundaries.
We track the latest polls for the next Senedd election.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
5
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
| Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 26 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Constituency
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 32.20% | 32.20% | 0.00% | 24 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 22.40% | 22.40% | 0.00% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 22.36% | 22.36% | 0.00% | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 14.77% | 14.77% | 0.00% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Region
| Votes | Seats | Seat Changes |
|---|
| Party | Then | Now | Change | Then | Now | Gains | Losses | Net |
|---|
| Labour | 29.63% | 29.63% | 0.00% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conservative | 21.44% | 21.44% | 0.00% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 21.00% | 21.00% | 0.00% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liberal Democrat | 11.78% | 11.78% | 0.00% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UKIP | 3.95% | 3.95% | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mid and West Wales