Senedd Swingometer

This page contains the Senedd swingometer used to predict election results for the next Senedd election scheduled to be held in 2026.

We track the latest polls for the next Senedd election.

Senedd Election 2021 (Use for 2026)

Wales

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Labour
short by
1
31 seats needed for a majority
Summary
SeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour3030+1-10
Conservative16140-2-2
Plaid Cymru13110-2-2
Liberal Democrat15+40+4
Constituency
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour39.85%39.62%-0.23%2728+10+1
Conservative26.07%24.21%-1.86%870-1-1
Plaid Cymru20.27%18.31%-1.96%55000
Liberal Democrat4.88%5.31%+0.43%00000
Reform UK1.57%4.55%+2.98%00000
Region
VotesSeatsSeat Changes
PartyThenNowChangeThenNowGainsLossesNet
Labour36.17%34.69%-1.48%320-1-1
Conservative25.08%19.45%-5.63%870-1-1
Plaid Cymru20.72%18.62%-2.10%860-2-2
Liberal Democrat4.34%10.14%+5.80%15+40+4
Green4.39%6.00%+1.61%00000
Reform UK1.06%5.31%+4.25%00000
Abolish the Welsh Assembly3.73%3.73%+0.00%00000
Map Options

On the current prediction the seats that will change hands are as follows:

Labour gains
Vale of ClwydNorth Wales

South Wales East

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%

South Wales Central

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%

South Wales West

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Green
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%

Mid and West Wales

Constituency
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
Labour
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Plaid Cymru
%
Conservative
%
Labour
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Reform UK
%

North Wales

Constituency
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Reform UK
%
Region
Labour
%
Conservative
%
Plaid Cymru
%
Abolish the Welsh Assembly
%
Liberal Democrat
%
Green
%
Reform UK
%

Senedd Election 2016 (Use for 2021)

Senedd Election 2011 (Use for 2016)

Quick Links
Latest Posts
Updated Election Maps
posted 30 Mar 2024, 14:30
Updated Constituency Boundaries
posted 26 Feb 2024, 21:20
2021 Results for the Scottish Parliament and Senedd Elections
posted 8 May 2021, 20:45