Caerphilly - UK Parliament Constituency

Here are the most recent election results for the Caerphilly constituency.

Note: Smaller parties may be omitted. The candidate with the largest vote who does not belong to one of the main parties is listed as 'Minor'. Votes listed for 'Other' are calculated by taking the votes from the main parties and 'Minor' away from the total votes cast.

Name	Caerphilly
Region	Wales
1st in 2024		Labour
2nd in 2024		Plaid Cymru
Swing To Lose	8.39%
Next Election Prediction	View

Note: 'Swing To Lose' is the swing needed by the 2nd placed party against the 1st placed party to win the seat.

Electoral History

Election		Party
	Election 2024	Labour
	Election 2019 (New Boundaries)	Labour
	Election 2019	Labour
	Election 2017	Labour
	Election 2015	Labour
	Election 2010	Labour
	Election 2005 (New Boundaries)	Labour
	Election 2005	Labour
	Election 2001	Labour
	Election 1997	Labour
	Election 1992	Labour
	Election 1987	Labour
	Election 1983	Labour
	Election 1979	Labour
	Election 1974 (October)	Labour
	Election 1974 (February)	Labour

Election 2024

View full Election 2024 results.

Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	14,538	38.02%	-5.87%
	Plaid Cymru	8,119	21.24%	+6.52%
	Reform UK	7,754	20.28%	+8.55%
	Conservative	4,385	11.47%	-17.11%
	Liberal Democrat	1,788	4.68%	+3.96%
	Green	1,650	4.32%	+3.95%
Majority		6,419	16.79%
Turnout		38,234	52.63%	-9.57%
Electorate		72,643
Swing from LAB to REF			7.21%
Swing from LAB to PC			6.20%
Swing from PC to REF			1.01%
	Labour hold

Election 2019 (New Boundaries)

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	19,783	43.89%	-1.02%
	Conservative	12,882	28.58%	+0.70%
	Plaid Cymru	6,630	14.71%	-1.30%
	Reform UK	5,287	11.73%	N/A
	Liberal Democrat	323	0.72%	N/A
	Green	164	0.36%	N/A
Majority		6,901	15.31%
Turnout		45,069	62.20%	-1.31%
Electorate		72,458
Swing from PC to CON			1.00%
Swing from LAB to CON			0.86%
Swing from PC to LAB			0.14%
	Labour hold

Election 2019

View full Election 2019 results.

Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	18,018	44.91%	-9.55%
	Conservative	11,185	27.88%	+2.67%
	Plaid Cymru	6,424	16.01%	+1.58%
	Brexit Party	4,490	11.19%	N/A
Majority		6,833	17.03%
Turnout		40,117	63.51%	-0.63%
Electorate		63,166
Swing from LAB to CON			6.11%
Swing from LAB to PC			5.56%
Swing from PC to CON			0.54%
	Labour hold

Election 2017

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	22,491	54.46%	+10.12%
	Conservative	10,413	25.21%	+8.62%
	Plaid Cymru	5,962	14.44%	-0.20%
	UKIP	1,259	3.05%	-16.29%
	Liberal Democrat	725	1.76%	-0.57%
	Green	447	1.08%	-1.24%
Majority		12,078	29.25%
Turnout		41,297	64.14%	+0.81%
Electorate		64,381
Swing from PC to LAB			5.16%
Swing from PC to CON			4.41%
Swing from CON to LAB			0.75%
	Labour hold

Election 2015

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	17,864	44.35%	-0.56%
	UKIP	7,791	19.34%	+16.99%
	Conservative	6,683	16.59%	-0.52%
	Plaid Cymru	5,895	14.63%	-2.06%
	Green	937	2.33%	N/A
	Liberal Democrat	935	2.32%	-12.38%
	Minor	178	0.44%	N/A
Majority		10,073	25.01%
Turnout		40,283	63.34%	+1.05%
Electorate		63,603
Swing from LAB to UKIP			8.78%
Swing from CON to UKIP			8.76%
Swing from LAB to CON			0.02%
	Labour hold

Election 2010

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	17,377	44.91%	-10.44%
	Conservative	6,622	17.11%	+2.12%
	Plaid Cymru	6,460	16.70%	-1.13%
	Liberal Democrat	5,688	14.70%	+4.52%
	Minor	1,635	4.23%	N/A
	UKIP	910	2.35%	N/A
Majority		10,755	27.80%
Turnout		38,692	62.28%	+3.68%
Electorate		62,122
Swing from LAB to CON			6.28%
Swing from LAB to PC			4.65%
Swing from PC to CON			1.63%
	Labour hold

Election 2005 (New Boundaries)

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	20,272	55.35%	-1.21%
	Plaid Cymru	6,529	17.83%	+0.41%
	Conservative	5,490	14.99%	+0.43%
	Liberal Democrat	3,727	10.18%	+0.33%
	Others	606	1.65%	N/A
Majority		13,743	37.52%
Turnout		36,624	58.60%	-0.69%
Electorate		62,496
Swing from LAB to CON			0.82%
Swing from LAB to PC			0.81%
Swing from PC to CON			0.01%
	Labour hold

Election 2005

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	22,190	56.57%	-1.63%
	Plaid Cymru	6,831	17.41%	-3.63%
	Conservative	5,711	14.56%	+3.19%
	Liberal Democrat	3,861	9.84%	+0.45%
	Minor	636	1.62%	N/A
Majority		15,359	39.15%
Turnout		39,229	59.29%	+1.84%
Electorate		66,162
Swing from PC to CON			3.41%
Swing from LAB to CON			2.41%
Swing from PC to LAB			1.00%
	Labour hold

Election 2001

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	22,597	58.19%	-9.62%
	Plaid Cymru	8,172	21.05%	+11.36%
	Conservative	4,413	11.36%	+0.63%
	Liberal Democrat	3,649	9.40%	+1.17%
Majority		14,425	37.15%
Turnout		38,831	57.45%	-12.60%
Electorate		67,593
Swing from LAB to PC			10.49%
Swing from CON to PC			5.36%
Swing from LAB to CON			5.13%
	Labour hold

Election 1997

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	30,697	67.81%	+4.16%
	Conservative	4,858	10.73%	-7.42%
	Plaid Cymru	4,383	9.68%	+0.01%
	Liberal Democrat	3,724	8.23%	-0.30%
	Minor	1,337	2.95%	N/A
	Others	270	0.60%	N/A
Majority		25,839	57.08%
Turnout		45,269	70.05%	-7.12%
Electorate		64,621
Swing from CON to LAB			5.79%
Swing from CON to PC			3.71%
Swing from PC to LAB			2.08%
	Labour hold

Election 1992

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	31,713	63.65%	+5.21%
	Conservative	9,041	18.15%	-1.26%
	Plaid Cymru	4,821	9.68%	+1.62%
	Liberal Democrat	4,247	8.52%	N/A
Majority		22,672	45.51%
Turnout		49,822	77.18%	+0.63%
Electorate		64,555
Swing from CON to LAB			3.24%
Swing from PC to LAB			1.80%
Swing from CON to PC			1.44%
	Labour hold

Election 1987

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	28,698	58.44%	+12.83%
	Conservative	9,531	19.41%	-0.24%
	SDP-Liberal Alliance	6,923	14.10%	-7.08%
	Plaid Cymru	3,955	8.05%	-5.51%
Majority		19,167	39.03%
Turnout		49,107	76.55%	+2.04%
Electorate		64,154
Swing from ALL to LAB			9.96%
Swing from CON to LAB			6.54%
Swing from ALL to CON			3.42%
	Labour hold

Election 1983

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	21,570	45.61%	-13.16%
	SDP-Liberal Alliance	10,017	21.18%	N/A
	Conservative	9,295	19.65%	+0.73%
	Plaid Cymru	6,414	13.56%	-1.37%
Majority		11,553	24.43%
Turnout		47,296	74.51%	-4.30%
Electorate		63,479
Swing from LAB to ALL			17.17%
Swing from CON to ALL			10.22%
Swing from LAB to CON			6.95%
	Labour hold

Election 1979

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	27,280	58.76%	+2.17%
	Conservative	8,783	18.92%	+7.45%
	Plaid Cymru	6,931	14.93%	-9.55%
	Liberal	3,430	7.39%	-0.07%
Majority		18,497	39.84%
Turnout		46,424	78.81%	+3.17%
Electorate		58,908
Swing from PC to CON			8.50%
Swing from PC to LAB			5.86%
Swing from LAB to CON			2.64%
	Labour hold

Election 1974 (October)

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	24,161	56.59%	-0.62%
	Plaid Cymru	10,452	24.48%	-3.06%
	Conservative	4,897	11.47%	-2.15%
	Liberal	3,184	7.46%	N/A
Majority		13,709	32.11%
Turnout		42,694	75.63%	-1.88%
Electorate		56,449
Swing from PC to LAB			1.22%
Swing from CON to LAB			0.76%
Swing from PC to CON			0.45%
	Labour hold

Election 1974 (February)

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Party		Votes	Percentage	Change
	Labour	24,838	57.21%	N/A
	Plaid Cymru	11,956	27.54%	N/A
	Conservative	5,912	13.62%	N/A
	Others	711	1.64%	N/A
Majority		12,882	29.67%
Turnout		43,417	77.51%	N/A
Electorate		56,013

	Labour win

2029 General Election

Poll of Polls

Seat-By-Seat Forecast

Custom Swingometer 2029

LAB - Targets | Defence

CON - Targets | Defence

LD - Targets | Defence

REF - Targets | Defence

GRN - Targets | Defence

2024 General Election Results