Conservative Target Seats

Below are lists of Conservative target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.

Conservative Target Seats 2024

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2024 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

(order by swing needed)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.BedfordEast of England1450.31%
2.Coventry North WestWest Midlands2080.44%
3.Alyn and DeesideWales2130.50%
4.Dagenham and RainhamLondon2930.67%
5.Coventry SouthWest Midlands4010.89%
6.Weaver ValeNorth West5621.11%
7.Warwick and LeamingtonWest Midlands7891.46%
8.GordonScotland8191.46%
9.WansbeckNorth East8142.01%
10.Newport WestWales9022.08%
11.Stockton NorthNorth East1,0272.50%
12.Normanton, Pontefract and CastlefordYorkshire and the Humber1,2762.64%
13.HemsworthYorkshire and the Humber1,1802.69%
14.CanterburySouth East1,8363.05%
15.ChesterfieldEast Midlands1,4513.21%
16.Warrington NorthNorth West1,5093.23%
17.Oldham East and SaddleworthNorth West1,4993.25%
18.Westmorland and LonsdaleNorth West1,9343.67%
19.Wolverhampton South EastWest Midlands1,2353.69%
20.Hull EastYorkshire and the Humber1,2393.82%
21.GowerWales1,8374.13%
22.Carmarthen East and DinefwrWales1,8094.41%
23.Ayr, Carrick and CumnockScotland2,3295.00%
24.Wentworth and DearneYorkshire and the Humber2,1655.21%
25.Lancaster and FleetwoodNorth West2,3805.26%
26.Doncaster CentralYorkshire and the Humber2,2785.48%
27.Newport EastWales1,9925.49%
28.HalifaxYorkshire and the Humber2,5695.53%
29.Doncaster NorthYorkshire and the Humber2,3705.82%
30.Bradford SouthYorkshire and the Humber2,3465.90%
31.Batley and SpenYorkshire and the Humber3,5256.66%
32.Sunderland CentralNorth East2,9646.82%
33.Stalybridge and HydeNorth West2,9466.95%
34.Wirral WestNorth West3,0037.00%
35.Worsley and Eccles SouthNorth West3,2197.20%
36.ElthamLondon3,1977.32%
37.Ochil and South PerthshireScotland4,4987.78%
38.Houghton and Sunderland SouthNorth East3,1157.82%
39.Walsall SouthWest Midlands3,4568.14%
40.Argyll and ButeScotland4,1108.55%
41.TynemouthNorth East4,8578.67%
42.Aberdeen SouthScotland3,9908.74%
43.RotherhamYorkshire and the Humber3,1218.75%
44.HartlepoolNorth East3,5958.76%
45.AngusScotland3,7958.79%
46.Sheffield HallamYorkshire and the Humber5,0138.81%
47.Plymouth Sutton and DevonportSouth West4,7578.95%
48.Erith and ThamesmeadLondon3,7589.08%
49.Hull West and HessleYorkshire and the Humber2,8569.11%
50.Enfield SouthgateLondon4,4509.41%
51.BatterseaLondon5,6689.45%
52.PutneyLondon4,7749.46%
53.East LothianScotland5,6339.63%
54.Lanark and Hamilton EastScotland5,1879.77%
55.Renfrewshire EastScotland5,4269.80%
56.Washington and Sunderland WestNorth East3,7239.92%
57.TorfaenWales3,74210.07%
58.Bristol North WestSouth West5,69210.19%
59.Sheffield South EastYorkshire and the Humber4,28910.21%
60.Birmingham ErdingtonWest Midlands3,60110.22%
61.Durham, City ofNorth East5,02510.28%
62.Barnsley EastYorkshire and the Humber3,95210.38%
63.Ilford NorthLondon5,21810.41%
64.Reading EastSouth East5,92410.59%
65.MakerfieldNorth West4,74010.71%
66.St AlbansEast of England6,29310.93%
67.Croydon CentralLondon5,94911.01%
68.Ashton-under-LyneNorth West4,26311.05%
69.Durham NorthNorth East4,74211.24%
70.Chester, City ofNorth West6,16411.30%
71.Portsmouth SouthSouth East5,36311.31%
72.Ayrshire CentralScotland5,30411.40%
73.HuddersfieldYorkshire and the Humber4,93711.79%
74.Richmond ParkLondon7,76611.94%
75.BlaydonNorth East5,53112.11%
76.Leicester WestEast Midlands4,21212.11%
77.Leicester EastEast Midlands6,01912.18%
78.LlanelliWales4,67012.21%
79.Newcastle upon Tyne NorthNorth East5,76512.27%
80.Nottingham NorthEast Midlands4,49012.71%
81.Cardiff NorthWales6,98213.26%
82.Birmingham EdgbastonWest Midlands5,61413.26%
83.Southampton TestSouth East6,21313.81%
84.Perth and North PerthshireScotland7,55013.96%
85.Wirral SouthNorth West6,10514.02%
86.Leeds EastYorkshire and the Humber5,53114.16%
87.Derby SouthEast Midlands6,01914.18%
88.Enfield NorthLondon6,49214.41%
89.WiganNorth West6,72814.94%
90.PontypriddWales5,88715.07%
91.Kirkcaldy and CowdenbeathScotland7,11915.15%
92.Oxford West and AbingdonSouth East8,94315.20%
93.NeathWales5,63715.34%
94.Brent NorthLondon8,07915.57%
95.CeredigionWales6,32915.78%
96.Lancashire WestNorth West8,33615.83%
97.Dwyfor MeirionnyddWales4,74015.84%
98.IslwynWales5,46415.91%
99.Denton and ReddishNorth West6,17516.00%
100.Feltham and HestonLondon7,85916.44%
101.Brighton KemptownSouth East8,06116.61%
102.CaerphillyWales6,83317.03%
103.Kingston and SurbitonLondon10,48917.24%
104.Coventry North EastWest Midlands7,69217.31%
105.JarrowNorth East7,12017.48%
106.StirlingScotland9,25417.59%
107.Ayrshire North and ArranScotland8,52117.70%
108.Bristol SouthSouth West9,85917.86%
109.Ellesmere Port and NestonNorth West8,76417.98%
110.Brentford and IsleworthLondon10,51418.03%
111.Harrow WestLondon8,69218.14%
112.ExeterSouth West10,40318.51%
113.Bolton South EastNorth West7,59818.71%
114.Barnsley CentralYorkshire and the Humber6,91218.73%
115.GatesheadNorth East7,20018.88%
116.Tyneside NorthNorth East9,56118.96%
117.EasingtonNorth East6,58119.03%
118.Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and StrathspeyScotland10,44019.05%
119.Linlithgow and Falkirk EastScotland11,26619.50%
120.MidlothianScotland9,56619.84%
121.Sheffield HeeleyYorkshire and the Humber8,52019.96%
122.RochdaleNorth West9,66820.38%
123.Bristol EastSouth West10,79420.70%
124.Caithness, Sutherland and Easter RossScotland6,52920.76%
125.Luton SouthEast of England8,75620.82%
126.Hayes and HarlingtonLondon9,26121.05%
127.Luton NorthEast of England9,24721.71%
128.Leeds North WestYorkshire and the Humber10,74921.81%
129.TwickenhamLondon14,12121.89%
130.OgmoreWales7,80522.05%
131.Hull NorthYorkshire and the Humber7,59322.20%
132.Swansea WestWales8,11622.65%
133.Edinburgh WestScotland12,48322.89%
134.Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)Scotland3,31522.90%
135.Edinburgh South WestScotland11,98222.98%
136.Dunbartonshire EastScotland12,21723.04%
137.Wythenshawe and Sale EastNorth West10,39623.23%
138.Dunfermline and Fife WestScotland12,52023.41%
139.BathSouth West12,32223.63%
140.Swansea EastWales7,97023.74%
141.Cardiff WestWales10,98623.79%
142.StockportNorth West10,03924.07%
143.Ealing Central and ActonLondon13,30024.27%
144.Paisley and Renfrewshire NorthScotland12,13624.43%
145.TootingLondon14,30724.47%
146.LivingstonScotland13,43524.61%
147.MiddlesbroughNorth East8,39524.62%
148.Norwich SouthEast of England12,76024.69%
149.Ealing NorthLondon12,26924.72%
150.Hampstead and KilburnLondon14,18824.72%
151.Birmingham YardleyWest Midlands10,65924.98%
152.Oldham West and RoytonNorth West11,12725.04%
153.Westminster NorthLondon10,75925.07%
154.Birmingham Selly OakWest Midlands12,41425.10%
155.East Kilbride, Strathaven and LesmahagowScotland14,15225.12%
156.Edinburgh North and LeithScotland14,92525.15%
157.Cardiff South and PenarthWales12,73725.18%
158.South ShieldsNorth East9,58525.30%
159.St Helens NorthNorth West12,20925.67%
160.Nottingham SouthEast Midlands12,56826.11%
161.Leeds WestYorkshire and the Humber10,56426.23%
162.Kilmarnock and LoudounScotland12,65926.58%
163.SloughSouth East13,64026.73%
164.FalkirkScotland14,94826.75%
165.York CentralYorkshire and the Humber13,54527.36%
166.Airdrie and ShottsScotland10,91827.45%
167.Cynon ValleyWales8,82229.18%
168.Rutherglen and Hamilton WestScotland15,72129.22%
169.Dundee EastScotland13,37529.54%
170.Sefton CentralNorth West15,12229.72%
171.ArfonWales8,70629.94%
172.Fife North EastScotland13,80230.08%
173.Blaenau GwentWales9,11330.16%
174.HoveSouth East17,04430.22%
175.Motherwell and WishawScotland13,47230.33%
176.WarleyWest Midlands11,51130.91%
177.Sheffield Brightside and HillsboroughYorkshire and the Humber12,27430.99%
178.Ross, Skye and LochaberScotland12,36331.01%
179.Edinburgh SouthScotland15,58431.34%
180.Salford and EcclesNorth West16,32732.25%
181.CambridgeEast of England17,43432.45%
182.Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthScotland14,06632.65%
183.InverclydeScotland13,03032.65%
184.Newcastle upon Tyne CentralNorth East12,27832.76%
185.Stretford and UrmstonNorth West16,41732.79%
186.Glasgow EastScotland12,64832.87%
187.Merthyr Tydfil and RhymneyWales10,60632.89%
188.AberavonWales10,49033.20%
189.Leeds North EastYorkshire and the Humber17,08933.84%
190.Aberdeen NorthScotland12,67033.87%
191.HammersmithLondon17,84734.34%
192.Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillScotland16,56734.36%
193.Glasgow North WestScotland13,65634.37%
194.GlenrothesScotland14,31434.45%
195.BarkingLondon15,42734.67%
196.Edinburgh EastScotland16,61634.75%
197.Greenwich and WoolwichLondon18,46434.76%
198.Orkney and ShetlandScotland8,09434.95%
199.Glasgow SouthScotland16,59234.97%
200.Dunbartonshire WestScotland15,96035.36%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2021 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by swing needed)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.Perthshire South and Kinross-shireMid Scotland and Fife1,4223.93%
2.Edinburgh PentlandsLothian2,4567.36%
3.Angus North and MearnsNorth East Scotland2,4728.41%
4.Aberdeen South and North KincardineNorth East Scotland2,7558.52%
5.MorayHighlands and Islands2,8758.60%
6.Edinburgh SouthernLothian3,6259.47%
7.Perthshire NorthMid Scotland and Fife3,3369.80%
8.Angus SouthNorth East Scotland4,30413.48%
9.East LothianSouth Scotland5,28413.94%
10.Midlothian South, Tweeddale and LauderdaleSouth Scotland5,86816.49%
11.Aberdeenshire EastNorth East Scotland5,83716.80%
12.ClydesdaleSouth Scotland5,97917.73%
13.StirlingMid Scotland and Fife6,71819.65%
14.Strathkelvin and BearsdenWest Scotland8,10020.67%
15.Aberdeen CentralNorth East Scotland5,62621.07%
16.Carrick, Cumnock and Doon ValleySouth Scotland7,02422.17%
17.Banffshire and Buchan CoastNorth East Scotland6,58322.95%
18.Renfrewshire North and WestWest Scotland7,37323.93%
19.Clackmannanshire and DunblaneMid Scotland and Fife7,23224.31%
20.DumbartonWest Scotland8,63125.69%
21.DunfermlineMid Scotland and Fife8,46025.71%
22.Argyll and ButeHighlands and Islands7,72126.19%
23.Glasgow KelvinGlasgow7,61826.78%
24.North East FifeMid Scotland and Fife9,28227.25%
25.Cunninghame NorthWest Scotland8,72427.29%
26.Edinburgh WesternLothian10,95927.56%
27.Caithness Sutherland and RossHighlands and Islands9,02528.02%
28.Inverness and NairnHighlands and Islands10,85728.33%
29.Hamilton, Larkhall and StonehouseCentral Scotland8,34928.90%
30.Edinburgh Northern and LeithLothian11,24130.30%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2021 Welsh Assembly Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2021 Welsh Assembly election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Welsh Assembly election.

(order by swing needed)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.Vale of GlamorganSouth Wales Central7772.06%
2.Vale of ClwydNorth Wales7683.18%
3.GowerSouth Wales West1,8296.06%
4.WrexhamNorth Wales1,3256.51%
5.Cardiff NorthSouth Wales Central3,6679.79%
6.Clwyd SouthNorth Wales3,01613.61%
7.Newport WestSouth Wales East4,11514.83%
8.DelynNorth Wales3,58215.47%
9.Cardiff WestSouth Wales Central5,76418.04%
10.BridgendSouth Wales West5,62320.94%
11.Cardiff South and PenarthSouth Wales Central6,92122.86%
12.Swansea WestSouth Wales West5,08022.88%
13.PontypriddSouth Wales Central6,10224.08%
14.Alyn and DeesideNorth Wales5,36424.72%
15.TorfaenSouth Wales East5,75725.05%
16.Newport EastSouth Wales East5,46126.40%
17.CaerphillySouth Wales East7,17226.45%
18.Brecon and RadnorshireMid and West Wales8,17026.90%
19.NeathSouth Wales West7,28928.74%
20.Cardiff CentralSouth Wales Central7,69929.53%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Welsh Assembly election.

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