Conservative Target Seats

Below are lists of Conservative target seats showing which constituencies can be most easily won from an opposing party relative to the latest elections.

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Conservative Target Seats 2024

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2024 general election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

(order by swing needed)

Rank		Region	Majority	Percent Majority
1.	Bedford	East of England	145	0.31%
2.	Coventry North West	West Midlands	208	0.44%
3.	Alyn and Deeside	Wales	213	0.50%
4.	Dagenham and Rainham	London	293	0.67%
5.	Coventry South	West Midlands	401	0.89%
6.	Weaver Vale	North West	562	1.11%
7.	Warwick and Leamington	West Midlands	789	1.46%
8.	Gordon	Scotland	819	1.46%
9.	Wansbeck	North East	814	2.01%
10.	Newport West	Wales	902	2.08%
11.	Stockton North	North East	1,027	2.50%
12.	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Yorkshire and the Humber	1,276	2.64%
13.	Hemsworth	Yorkshire and the Humber	1,180	2.69%
14.	Canterbury	South East	1,836	3.05%
15.	Chesterfield	East Midlands	1,451	3.21%
16.	Warrington North	North West	1,509	3.23%
17.	Oldham East and Saddleworth	North West	1,499	3.25%
18.	Westmorland and Lonsdale	North West	1,934	3.67%
19.	Wolverhampton South East	West Midlands	1,235	3.69%
20.	Hull East	Yorkshire and the Humber	1,239	3.82%
21.	Gower	Wales	1,837	4.13%
22.	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Wales	1,809	4.41%
23.	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Scotland	2,329	5.00%
24.	Wentworth and Dearne	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,165	5.21%
25.	Lancaster and Fleetwood	North West	2,380	5.26%
26.	Doncaster Central	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,278	5.48%
27.	Newport East	Wales	1,992	5.49%
28.	Halifax	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,569	5.53%
29.	Doncaster North	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,370	5.82%
30.	Bradford South	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,346	5.90%
31.	Batley and Spen	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,525	6.66%
32.	Sunderland Central	North East	2,964	6.82%
33.	Stalybridge and Hyde	North West	2,946	6.95%
34.	Wirral West	North West	3,003	7.00%
35.	Worsley and Eccles South	North West	3,219	7.20%
36.	Eltham	London	3,197	7.32%
37.	Ochil and South Perthshire	Scotland	4,498	7.78%
38.	Houghton and Sunderland South	North East	3,115	7.82%
39.	Walsall South	West Midlands	3,456	8.14%
40.	Argyll and Bute	Scotland	4,110	8.55%
41.	Tynemouth	North East	4,857	8.67%
42.	Aberdeen South	Scotland	3,990	8.74%
43.	Rotherham	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,121	8.75%
44.	Hartlepool	North East	3,595	8.76%
45.	Angus	Scotland	3,795	8.79%
46.	Sheffield Hallam	Yorkshire and the Humber	5,013	8.81%
47.	Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	South West	4,757	8.95%
48.	Erith and Thamesmead	London	3,758	9.08%
49.	Hull West and Hessle	Yorkshire and the Humber	2,856	9.11%
50.	Enfield Southgate	London	4,450	9.41%
51.	Battersea	London	5,668	9.45%
52.	Putney	London	4,774	9.46%
53.	East Lothian	Scotland	5,633	9.63%
54.	Lanark and Hamilton East	Scotland	5,187	9.77%
55.	Renfrewshire East	Scotland	5,426	9.80%
56.	Washington and Sunderland West	North East	3,723	9.92%
57.	Torfaen	Wales	3,742	10.07%
58.	Bristol North West	South West	5,692	10.19%
59.	Sheffield South East	Yorkshire and the Humber	4,289	10.21%
60.	Birmingham Erdington	West Midlands	3,601	10.22%
61.	Durham, City of	North East	5,025	10.28%
62.	Barnsley East	Yorkshire and the Humber	3,952	10.38%
63.	Ilford North	London	5,218	10.41%
64.	Reading East	South East	5,924	10.59%
65.	Makerfield	North West	4,740	10.71%
66.	St Albans	East of England	6,293	10.93%
67.	Croydon Central	London	5,949	11.01%
68.	Ashton-under-Lyne	North West	4,263	11.05%
69.	Durham North	North East	4,742	11.24%
70.	Chester, City of	North West	6,164	11.30%
71.	Portsmouth South	South East	5,363	11.31%
72.	Ayrshire Central	Scotland	5,304	11.40%
73.	Huddersfield	Yorkshire and the Humber	4,937	11.79%
74.	Richmond Park	London	7,766	11.94%
75.	Blaydon	North East	5,531	12.11%
76.	Leicester West	East Midlands	4,212	12.11%
77.	Leicester East	East Midlands	6,019	12.18%
78.	Llanelli	Wales	4,670	12.21%
79.	Newcastle upon Tyne North	North East	5,765	12.27%
80.	Nottingham North	East Midlands	4,490	12.71%
81.	Cardiff North	Wales	6,982	13.26%
82.	Birmingham Edgbaston	West Midlands	5,614	13.26%
83.	Southampton Test	South East	6,213	13.81%
84.	Perth and North Perthshire	Scotland	7,550	13.96%
85.	Wirral South	North West	6,105	14.02%
86.	Leeds East	Yorkshire and the Humber	5,531	14.16%
87.	Derby South	East Midlands	6,019	14.18%
88.	Enfield North	London	6,492	14.41%
89.	Wigan	North West	6,728	14.94%
90.	Pontypridd	Wales	5,887	15.07%
91.	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Scotland	7,119	15.15%
92.	Oxford West and Abingdon	South East	8,943	15.20%
93.	Neath	Wales	5,637	15.34%
94.	Brent North	London	8,079	15.57%
95.	Ceredigion	Wales	6,329	15.78%
96.	Lancashire West	North West	8,336	15.83%
97.	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Wales	4,740	15.84%
98.	Islwyn	Wales	5,464	15.91%
99.	Denton and Reddish	North West	6,175	16.00%
100.	Feltham and Heston	London	7,859	16.44%
101.	Brighton Kemptown	South East	8,061	16.61%
102.	Caerphilly	Wales	6,833	17.03%
103.	Kingston and Surbiton	London	10,489	17.24%
104.	Coventry North East	West Midlands	7,692	17.31%
105.	Jarrow	North East	7,120	17.48%
106.	Stirling	Scotland	9,254	17.59%
107.	Ayrshire North and Arran	Scotland	8,521	17.70%
108.	Bristol South	South West	9,859	17.86%
109.	Ellesmere Port and Neston	North West	8,764	17.98%
110.	Brentford and Isleworth	London	10,514	18.03%
111.	Harrow West	London	8,692	18.14%
112.	Exeter	South West	10,403	18.51%
113.	Bolton South East	North West	7,598	18.71%
114.	Barnsley Central	Yorkshire and the Humber	6,912	18.73%
115.	Gateshead	North East	7,200	18.88%
116.	Tyneside North	North East	9,561	18.96%
117.	Easington	North East	6,581	19.03%
118.	Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	Scotland	10,440	19.05%
119.	Linlithgow and Falkirk East	Scotland	11,266	19.50%
120.	Midlothian	Scotland	9,566	19.84%
121.	Sheffield Heeley	Yorkshire and the Humber	8,520	19.96%
122.	Rochdale	North West	9,668	20.38%
123.	Bristol East	South West	10,794	20.70%
124.	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Scotland	6,529	20.76%
125.	Luton South	East of England	8,756	20.82%
126.	Hayes and Harlington	London	9,261	21.05%
127.	Luton North	East of England	9,247	21.71%
128.	Leeds North West	Yorkshire and the Humber	10,749	21.81%
129.	Twickenham	London	14,121	21.89%
130.	Ogmore	Wales	7,805	22.05%
131.	Hull North	Yorkshire and the Humber	7,593	22.20%
132.	Swansea West	Wales	8,116	22.65%
133.	Edinburgh West	Scotland	12,483	22.89%
134.	Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles)	Scotland	3,315	22.90%
135.	Edinburgh South West	Scotland	11,982	22.98%
136.	Dunbartonshire East	Scotland	12,217	23.04%
137.	Wythenshawe and Sale East	North West	10,396	23.23%
138.	Dunfermline and Fife West	Scotland	12,520	23.41%
139.	Bath	South West	12,322	23.63%
140.	Swansea East	Wales	7,970	23.74%
141.	Cardiff West	Wales	10,986	23.79%
142.	Stockport	North West	10,039	24.07%
143.	Ealing Central and Acton	London	13,300	24.27%
144.	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Scotland	12,136	24.43%
145.	Tooting	London	14,307	24.47%
146.	Livingston	Scotland	13,435	24.61%
147.	Middlesbrough	North East	8,395	24.62%
148.	Norwich South	East of England	12,760	24.69%
149.	Ealing North	London	12,269	24.72%
150.	Hampstead and Kilburn	London	14,188	24.72%
151.	Birmingham Yardley	West Midlands	10,659	24.98%
152.	Oldham West and Royton	North West	11,127	25.04%
153.	Westminster North	London	10,759	25.07%
154.	Birmingham Selly Oak	West Midlands	12,414	25.10%
155.	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Scotland	14,152	25.12%
156.	Edinburgh North and Leith	Scotland	14,925	25.15%
157.	Cardiff South and Penarth	Wales	12,737	25.18%
158.	South Shields	North East	9,585	25.30%
159.	St Helens North	North West	12,209	25.67%
160.	Nottingham South	East Midlands	12,568	26.11%
161.	Leeds West	Yorkshire and the Humber	10,564	26.23%
162.	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Scotland	12,659	26.58%
163.	Slough	South East	13,640	26.73%
164.	Falkirk	Scotland	14,948	26.75%
165.	York Central	Yorkshire and the Humber	13,545	27.36%
166.	Airdrie and Shotts	Scotland	10,918	27.45%
167.	Cynon Valley	Wales	8,822	29.18%
168.	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Scotland	15,721	29.22%
169.	Dundee East	Scotland	13,375	29.54%
170.	Sefton Central	North West	15,122	29.72%
171.	Arfon	Wales	8,706	29.94%
172.	Fife North East	Scotland	13,802	30.08%
173.	Blaenau Gwent	Wales	9,113	30.16%
174.	Hove	South East	17,044	30.22%
175.	Motherwell and Wishaw	Scotland	13,472	30.33%
176.	Warley	West Midlands	11,511	30.91%
177.	Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough	Yorkshire and the Humber	12,274	30.99%
178.	Ross, Skye and Lochaber	Scotland	12,363	31.01%
179.	Edinburgh South	Scotland	15,584	31.34%
180.	Salford and Eccles	North West	16,327	32.25%
181.	Cambridge	East of England	17,434	32.45%
182.	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Scotland	14,066	32.65%
183.	Inverclyde	Scotland	13,030	32.65%
184.	Newcastle upon Tyne Central	North East	12,278	32.76%
185.	Stretford and Urmston	North West	16,417	32.79%
186.	Glasgow East	Scotland	12,648	32.87%
187.	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Wales	10,606	32.89%
188.	Aberavon	Wales	10,490	33.20%
189.	Leeds North East	Yorkshire and the Humber	17,089	33.84%
190.	Aberdeen North	Scotland	12,670	33.87%
191.	Hammersmith	London	17,847	34.34%
192.	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Scotland	16,567	34.36%
193.	Glasgow North West	Scotland	13,656	34.37%
194.	Glenrothes	Scotland	14,314	34.45%
195.	Barking	London	15,427	34.67%
196.	Edinburgh East	Scotland	16,616	34.75%
197.	Greenwich and Woolwich	London	18,464	34.76%
198.	Orkney and Shetland	Scotland	8,094	34.95%
199.	Glasgow South	Scotland	16,592	34.97%
200.	Dunbartonshire West	Scotland	15,960	35.36%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next general election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by swing needed)

Rank		Region	Majority	Percent Majority
1.	Ayr	South Scotland	170	0.39%
2.	Banffshire and Buchan Coast	North East Scotland	772	2.34%
3.	Aberdeen South and North Kincardine	North East Scotland	1,671	4.28%
4.	Perthshire South and Kinross-shire	Mid Scotland and Fife	1,948	4.42%
5.	Aberdeenshire East	North East Scotland	1,889	4.60%
6.	Moray	Highlands and Islands	3,164	7.69%
7.	Angus North and Mearns	North East Scotland	3,509	9.95%
8.	Perthshire North	Mid Scotland and Fife	4,053	10.10%
9.	Edinburgh Pentlands	Lothian	3,897	10.19%
10.	Clydesdale	South Scotland	4,578	11.24%
11.	Edinburgh Central	Lothian	4,732	11.34%
12.	Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley	South Scotland	4,337	12.18%
13.	Angus South	North East Scotland	6,117	15.84%
14.	Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale	South Scotland	6,826	15.86%
15.	Stirling	Mid Scotland and Fife	6,895	16.86%
16.	East Lothian	South Scotland	8,498	18.56%
17.	Inverness and Nairn	Highlands and Islands	9,114	19.93%
18.	Aberdeen Central	North East Scotland	6,594	20.84%
19.	Cunninghame North	West Scotland	7,776	20.91%
20.	Clackmannanshire and Dunblane	Mid Scotland and Fife	7,551	21.61%
21.	Renfrewshire North and West	West Scotland	8,970	23.50%
22.	Strathkelvin and Bearsden	West Scotland	11,484	24.83%
23.	Aberdeen Donside	North East Scotland	9,026	25.14%
24.	Argyll and Bute	Highlands and Islands	8,963	26.71%
25.	Falkirk East	Central Scotland	10,799	27.80%
26.	Linlithgow	Lothian	13,221	28.20%
27.	Cunninghame South	West Scotland	8,587	28.51%
28.	Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse	Central Scotland	10,429	28.74%
29.	Caithness Sutherland and Ross	Highlands and Islands	10,719	29.06%
30.	Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley	South Scotland	13,123	32.31%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Target Seats for the 2026 Welsh Assembly Election

Below is the list of Conservative target seats for the 2026 Welsh Assembly election. The list is ordered from the smallest to the largest swing needed for the seat to change hands.

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Welsh Assembly election.

(order by swing needed)

Rank		Region	Majority	Percent Majority
1.	Wrexham	North Wales	1,350	5.97%
2.	Vale of Glamorgan	South Wales Central	3,270	7.62%
3.	Clwyd South	North Wales	2,913	12.03%
4.	Newport West	South Wales East	3,906	13.20%
5.	Bridgend	South Wales West	4,064	13.79%
6.	Delyn	North Wales	3,711	14.03%
7.	Gower	South Wales West	4,795	14.46%
8.	Newport East	South Wales East	3,584	15.48%
9.	Cardiff North	South Wales Central	6,593	16.22%
10.	Alyn and Deeside	North Wales	4,378	16.94%
11.	Pontypridd	South Wales Central	5,853	21.24%
12.	Torfaen	South Wales East	5,321	22.21%
13.	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Mid and West Wales	7,510	22.58%
14.	Islwyn	South Wales East	6,068	24.79%
15.	Swansea West	South Wales West	6,521	27.18%
16.	Neath	South Wales West	7,559	27.41%
17.	Caerphilly	South Wales East	8,276	28.62%
18.	Cardiff South and Penarth	South Wales Central	10,606	29.15%
19.	Llanelli	Mid and West Wales	8,983	29.73%
20.	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Mid and West Wales	7,096	29.80%

View Conservative held marginal seats vulnerable at the next Welsh Assembly election.

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