Conservative Defence

Below are lists of Conservative marginal seats showing which constituencies won in the latest elections can be most easily lost.

Conservative Defence 2024

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2024 general election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

(order by swing to defeat)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.Bury NorthNorth West1050.22%
2.KensingtonLondon1500.34%
3.Bury SouthNorth West4020.80%
4.Bolton North EastNorth West3780.87%
5.MorayScotland5131.05%
6.High PeakEast Midlands5901.09%
7.WimbledonLondon6281.18%
8.Carshalton and WallingtonLondon6291.28%
9.GedlingEast Midlands6791.36%
10.Heywood and MiddletonNorth West6631.40%
11.Aberdeenshire West and KincardineScotland8431.58%
12.CheltenhamSouth West9811.65%
13.WinchesterSouth East9851.67%
14.Blyth ValleyNorth East7121.74%
15.Stoke-on-Trent CentralWest Midlands6702.09%
16.Chipping BarnetLondon1,2122.11%
17.DelynWales8652.25%
18.Durham North WestNorth East1,1442.40%
19.Chingford and Woodford GreenLondon1,2622.61%
20.BridgendWales1,1572.74%
21.DewsburyYorkshire and the Humber1,5612.77%
22.Warrington SouthNorth West2,0103.25%
23.Clwyd SouthWales1,2393.41%
24.BurnleyNorth West1,3523.47%
25.Dumfries and GallowayScotland1,8053.51%
26.Birmingham NorthfieldWest Midlands1,6403.81%
27.Wolverhampton South WestWest Midlands1,6614.04%
28.CheadleNorth West2,3364.18%
29.LeighNorth West1,9654.18%
30.KeighleyYorkshire and the Humber2,2184.22%
31.Cambridgeshire SouthEast of England2,9044.34%
32.Esher and WaltonSouth East2,7434.35%
33.West Bromwich EastWest Midlands1,5934.43%
34.LewesSouth East2,4574.48%
35.Vale of ClwydWales1,8274.91%
36.Ynys MonWales1,9685.38%
37.PeterboroughEast of England2,5805.40%
38.Derby NorthEast Midlands2,5405.40%
39.GuildfordSouth East3,3375.69%
40.StroudSouth West3,8405.82%
41.WrexhamWales2,1316.36%
42.AberconwyWales2,0346.38%
43.PudseyYorkshire and the Humber3,5176.49%
44.Vale of GlamorganWales3,5626.50%
45.LincolnEast Midlands3,5146.94%
46.HyndburnNorth West2,9516.96%
47.Hastings and RyeSouth East4,0437.45%
48.WakefieldYorkshire and the Humber3,3587.46%
49.DarlingtonNorth East3,2947.57%
50.WatfordEast of England4,4337.63%
51.HendonLondon4,2307.68%
52.Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleScotland3,7817.69%
53.WycombeSouth East4,2147.70%
54.Truro and FalmouthSouth West4,5617.71%
55.EastbourneSouth East4,3317.86%
56.Don ValleyYorkshire and the Humber3,6307.99%
57.Reading WestSouth East4,1178.17%
58.St IvesSouth West4,2808.32%
59.Colne ValleyYorkshire and the Humber5,1038.38%
60.SouthportNorth West4,1478.61%
61.RedcarNorth East3,5278.64%
62.Cities of London and WestminsterLondon3,9539.25%
63.Southampton ItchenSouth East4,4989.49%
64.Stockton SouthNorth East5,2609.60%
65.BroxtoweEast Midlands5,3319.65%
66.Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkScotland5,1489.69%
67.Banff and BuchanScotland4,1189.74%
68.Calder ValleyYorkshire and the Humber5,7749.99%
69.Hazel GroveNorth West4,4239.99%
70.Milton Keynes NorthSouth East6,25510.00%
71.WorkingtonNorth West4,17610.04%
72.Norwich NorthEast of England4,73810.24%
73.Devon EastSouth West6,70810.47%
74.Filton and Bradley StokeSouth West5,64610.50%
75.Milton Keynes SouthSouth East6,94410.85%
76.SedgefieldNorth East4,51310.86%
77.West Bromwich WestWest Midlands3,79911.02%
78.IpswichEast of England5,47911.05%
79.Altrincham and Sale WestNorth West6,13911.21%
80.Blackpool SouthNorth West3,69011.27%
81.Northampton SouthEast Midlands4,69711.50%
82.BolsoverEast Midlands5,29911.54%
83.ShipleyYorkshire and the Humber6,24211.56%
84.AshfieldEast Midlands5,73311.70%
85.Hitchin and HarpendenEast of England6,89511.71%
86.Wolverhampton North EastWest Midlands4,08011.90%
87.Finchley and Golders GreenLondon6,56211.91%
88.WokinghamSouth East7,38311.91%
89.Preseli PembrokeshireWales5,06211.93%
90.Barrow and FurnessNorth West5,78912.57%
91.RushcliffeEast Midlands7,64312.63%
92.Rother ValleyYorkshire and the Humber6,31812.97%
93.Swindon SouthSouth West6,62513.06%
94.LoughboroughEast Midlands7,16913.12%
95.WorcesterWest Midlands6,75813.28%
96.CopelandNorth West5,84213.74%
97.PendleNorth West6,18613.91%
98.Northampton NorthEast Midlands5,50713.93%
99.Morecambe and LunesdaleNorth West6,35414.02%
100.Worthing East and ShorehamSouth East7,47414.07%
101.Penistone and StocksbridgeYorkshire and the Humber7,21014.56%
102.Surrey South WestSouth East8,81714.61%
103.Uxbridge and Ruislip SouthLondon7,21014.96%
104.Stoke-on-Trent NorthWest Midlands6,28615.66%
105.Crewe and NantwichNorth West8,50815.75%
106.WellsSouth West9,99116.21%
107.Harrow EastLondon8,17016.51%
108.Sutton and CheamLondon8,35116.54%
109.Newcastle-under-LymeWest Midlands7,44616.64%
110.CrawleySouth East8,36016.75%
111.Clwyd WestWales6,74716.78%
112.CorbyEast Midlands10,26816.98%
113.Harrogate and KnaresboroughYorkshire and the Humber9,67516.99%
114.ScunthorpeYorkshire and the Humber6,45117.09%
115.Brecon and RadnorshireWales7,13117.26%
116.Camborne and RedruthSouth West8,70017.27%
117.ColchesterEast of England9,42317.65%
118.Bishop AucklandNorth East7,96217.77%
119.Cambridgeshire South EastEast of England11,49017.85%
120.Bournemouth EastSouth West8,80617.87%
121.StevenageEast of England8,56217.96%
122.Bolton WestNorth West8,85517.96%
123.York OuterYorkshire and the Humber9,98518.04%
124.WokingSouth East9,76718.11%
125.Taunton DeaneSouth West11,70018.36%
126.Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthWales7,74518.39%
127.WantageSouth East12,65318.84%
128.Shrewsbury and AtchamWest Midlands11,21718.99%
129.GloucesterSouth West10,27719.12%
130.CarlisleNorth West8,31919.40%
131.Rossendale and DarwenNorth West9,52219.50%
132.ChippenhamSouth West11,28819.77%
133.MonmouthWales9,98219.88%
134.MacclesfieldNorth West10,71119.88%
135.Scarborough and WhitbyYorkshire and the Humber10,27020.65%
136.Croydon SouthLondon12,33920.79%
137.South RibbleNorth West11,19920.82%
138.Welwyn HatfieldEast of England10,95521.05%
139.Mole ValleySouth East12,04121.08%
140.Romsey and Southampton NorthSouth East10,87221.16%
141.Morley and OutwoodYorkshire and the Humber11,26721.70%
142.ErewashEast Midlands10,60621.73%
143.Thanet SouthSouth East10,58721.94%
144.Bournemouth WestSouth West10,15022.08%
145.Blackpool North and CleveleysNorth West8,59622.15%
146.Great GrimsbyYorkshire and the Humber7,33122.16%
147.KingswoodSouth West11,22022.75%
148.HexhamNorth East10,54922.86%
149.Dorset WestSouth West14,10623.15%
150.Hertfordshire South WestEast of England14,40823.55%
151.Thornbury and YateSouth West12,36923.68%
152.Bromley and ChislehurstLondon10,89123.90%
153.HenleySouth East14,05323.92%
154.Chelsea and FulhamLondon11,24124.01%
155.ThurrockEast of England11,48224.19%
156.DoverSouth East12,27824.22%
157.Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastNorth East11,62624.31%
158.TotnesSouth West12,72424.38%
159.WitneySouth East15,17724.76%
160.TelfordWest Midlands10,94125.55%
161.BasingstokeSouth East14,19825.95%
162.Somerset North EastSouth West14,72926.16%
163.Derbyshire North EastEast Midlands12,87626.16%
164.RugbyWest Midlands13,44726.46%
165.EastleighSouth East15,60726.47%
166.Rochford and Southend EastEast of England12,28626.63%
167.Devon NorthSouth West14,81326.65%
168.BanburySouth East16,81326.72%
169.NewburySouth East16,04726.75%
170.Tunbridge WellsSouth East14,64526.80%
171.Worthing WestSouth East14,82327.12%
172.BeaconsfieldSouth East15,71227.15%
173.YeovilSouth West16,18127.31%
174.BassetlawEast Midlands14,01327.56%
175.StaffordWest Midlands14,37728.11%
176.BeckenhamLondon14,25828.20%
177.Somerset NorthSouth West17,53628.26%
178.Norfolk NorthEast of England14,39528.32%
179.Hemel HempsteadEast of England14,56328.40%
180.Stoke-on-Trent SouthWest Midlands11,27128.46%
181.Halesowen and Rowley RegisWest Midlands12,07428.51%
182.Cornwall NorthSouth West14,75228.55%
183.AylesburySouth East17,37328.68%
184.Sussex MidSouth East18,19728.99%
185.NuneatonWest Midlands13,14429.09%
186.Chesham and AmershamSouth East16,22329.13%
187.Plymouth Moor ViewSouth West12,89729.15%
188.Swindon NorthSouth West16,17129.34%
189.Somerton and FromeSouth West19,21329.61%
190.St Austell and NewquaySouth West16,52629.63%
191.StourbridgeWest Midlands13,57129.70%
192.BurtonWest Midlands14,49629.74%
193.Elmet and RothwellYorkshire and the Humber17,35329.80%
194.Epsom and EwellSouth East17,87330.06%
195.HarboroughEast Midlands17,27830.14%
196.Bexleyheath and CrayfordLondon13,10330.30%
197.Dorset Mid and Poole NorthSouth West14,89830.45%
198.Devon CentralSouth West17,72130.52%
199.SherwoodEast Midlands16,18630.71%
200.Weston-Super-MareSouth West17,12130.79%
201.Forest of DeanSouth West15,86930.83%
202.ChelmsfordEast of England17,62130.85%
203.Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerLondon16,39430.99%
204.Southend WestEast of England14,45931.07%
205.Derbyshire MidEast Midlands15,38531.17%
206.Surrey HeathSouth East18,34931.28%
207.Dudley NorthWest Midlands11,53331.44%
208.Wyre and Preston NorthNorth West16,78131.71%
209.Isle of WightSouth East23,73731.89%
210.BuckinghamSouth East20,41132.16%
211.Wiltshire NorthSouth West17,62632.19%
212.CongletonNorth West18,56132.43%
213.HarlowEast of England14,06332.44%
214.Hertford and StortfordEast of England19,62032.65%
215.Walsall NorthWest Midlands11,96532.73%
216.GraveshamSouth East15,58132.76%
217.HuntingdonEast of England19,38332.77%
218.Hertfordshire North EastEast of England18,18932.88%
219.Rochester and StroodSouth East17,07232.88%
220.Gillingham and RainhamSouth East15,11932.90%
221.Cotswolds, TheSouth West20,21433.04%
222.MansfieldEast Midlands16,30633.09%
223.Newton AbbotSouth West17,50133.30%
224.Ribble ValleyNorth West18,43933.35%
225.MaidenheadSouth East18,84633.36%
226.HorshamSouth East21,12733.41%
227.Dorset SouthSouth West17,15333.60%
228.KetteringEast Midlands16,76533.96%
229.Norfolk SouthEast of England21,27534.05%
230.Hampshire North EastSouth East20,21134.10%
231.Runnymede and WeybridgeSouth East18,27034.28%
232.Portsmouth NorthSouth East15,78034.37%
233.ReigateSouth East18,31034.45%
234.Hampshire EastSouth East19,69634.62%
235.Derbyshire DalesEast Midlands17,38134.75%
236.EddisburyNorth West18,44334.82%
237.AldershotSouth East16,69834.84%
238.Bedfordshire South WestEast of England18,58334.86%
239.ChichesterSouth East21,49035.09%
240.TorbaySouth West17,74935.20%
241.WaveneyEast of England18,00235.21%
242.Suffolk CoastalEast of England20,53335.21%
243.Berwick-upon-TweedNorth East14,83535.23%
244.DartfordSouth East19,16035.47%
245.MontgomeryshireWales12,13835.48%
246.TattonNorth West17,38735.51%
247.FyldeNorth West16,61135.60%
248.Thanet NorthSouth East17,18935.68%
249.Selby and AinstyYorkshire and the Humber20,13735.69%
250.WellingboroughEast Midlands18,54035.71%
251.Folkestone and HytheSouth East21,33736.16%
252.Derbyshire SouthEast Midlands19,33536.22%
253.Stratford-on-AvonWest Midlands19,97236.28%
254.RedditchWest Midlands16,03636.39%
255.BracknellSouth East19,82936.48%
256.TewkesburySouth West22,41036.65%
257.Arundel and South DownsSouth East22,52136.67%
258.SalisburySouth West19,73636.73%
259.Sutton ColdfieldWest Midlands19,27236.83%
260.Amber ValleyEast Midlands16,88637.06%
261.SpelthorneSouth East18,39337.15%
262.Bedfordshire North EastEast of England24,28337.35%
263.WindsorSouth East20,07937.36%
264.Staffordshire MoorlandsWest Midlands16,42837.63%
265.RomfordLondon17,89337.88%
266.PooleSouth West19,11637.89%
267.Leicestershire North WestEast Midlands20,40037.90%
268.Bedfordshire MidEast of England24,66438.11%
269.Beverley and HoldernessYorkshire and the Humber20,44838.19%
270.Wrekin, TheWest Midlands18,72638.30%
271.BroadlandEast of England21,86138.37%
272.SolihullWest Midlands21,27338.44%
273.Kenilworth and SouthamWest Midlands20,35338.70%
274.Penrith and The BorderNorth West18,51938.72%
275.Harwich and Essex NorthEast of England20,18238.84%
276.Cornwall South EastSouth West20,97139.08%
277.Warwickshire NorthWest Midlands17,95639.11%
278.Wiltshire South WestSouth West21,63039.40%
279.Hereford and Herefordshire SouthWest Midlands19,68639.65%
280.NewarkEast Midlands21,81639.84%
281.AshfordSouth East24,02940.01%
282.StoneWest Midlands19,94540.02%
283.Devon South WestSouth West21,43040.16%
284.Norfolk MidEast of England22,59440.21%
285.Cambridgeshire North WestEast of England25,98340.26%
286.Surrey EastSouth East24,04040.27%
287.Bury St EdmundsEast of England24,98840.33%
288.Skipton and RiponYorkshire and the Humber23,69440.35%
289.CharnwoodEast Midlands22,39740.45%
290.Shropshire NorthWest Midlands22,94940.61%
291.Great YarmouthEast of England17,66340.64%
292.Tiverton and HonitonSouth West24,23940.66%
293.HertsmereEast of England21,31340.83%
294.Haltemprice and HowdenYorkshire and the Humber20,32940.84%
295.SevenoaksSouth East20,81840.85%
296.Old Bexley and SidcupLondon18,95241.07%
297.Northamptonshire SouthEast Midlands27,76141.49%
298.Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthEast of England23,39141.58%
299.Leicestershire SouthEast Midlands24,00441.77%
300.Devon West and TorridgeSouth West24,99241.84%
301.WealdenSouth East25,65542.12%
302.Maidstone and The WealdSouth East21,77242.13%
303.MeridenWest Midlands22,83642.16%
304.Wyre ForestWest Midlands21,41342.35%
305.Meon ValleySouth East23,55542.39%
306.Bridgwater and Somerset WestSouth West24,43942.39%
307.BroxbourneEast of England19,80742.41%
308.Dudley SouthWest Midlands15,56542.56%
309.BromsgroveWest Midlands23,10642.57%
310.Worcestershire WestWest Midlands24,49942.58%
311.TamworthWest Midlands19,63442.63%
312.Norfolk North WestEast of England19,92242.75%
313.Chatham and AylesfordSouth East18,54042.78%
314.Suffolk SouthEast of England22,89742.81%
315.Cannock ChaseWest Midlands19,87942.92%
316.Yorkshire EastYorkshire and the Humber22,78743.18%
317.Hornchurch and UpminsterLondon23,30843.18%
318.Dorset NorthSouth West24,30143.31%
319.Faversham and Kent MidSouth East21,97643.61%
320.Saffron WaldenEast of England27,59443.74%
321.LichfieldWest Midlands23,63843.78%
322.Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonSouth East22,50343.93%
323.Basildon South and Thurrock EastEast of England19,92243.98%
324.Bexhill and BattleSouth East26,05944.10%
325.Epping ForestEast of England22,17344.11%
326.Thirsk and MaltonYorkshire and the Humber25,15444.45%
327.Hampshire North WestSouth East26,30844.65%
328.GainsboroughEast Midlands22,96744.99%
329.Suffolk WestEast of England23,19445.09%
330.DaventryEast Midlands26,08045.43%
331.FarehamSouth East26,08645.57%
332.OrpingtonLondon22,37845.93%
333.Rutland and MeltonEast Midlands26,92446.17%
334.CleethorpesYorkshire and the Humber21,41846.22%
335.Basildon and BillericayEast of England20,41246.26%
336.Grantham and StamfordEast Midlands26,00346.43%
337.BosworthEast Midlands26,27846.57%
338.LudlowWest Midlands23,64847.08%
339.DevizesSouth West23,99347.09%
340.Richmond (Yorks)Yorkshire and the Humber27,21047.16%
341.Tonbridge and MallingSouth East26,94147.26%
342.ChristchurchSouth West24,61747.39%
343.HavantSouth East21,79247.42%
344.Sittingbourne and SheppeySouth East24,47947.63%
345.GosportSouth East23,27848.04%
346.New Forest WestSouth East24,40348.51%
347.Herefordshire NorthWest Midlands24,85648.71%
348.WithamEast of England24,08248.80%
349.BraintreeEast of England24,67348.86%
350.Sleaford and North HykehamEast Midlands32,56548.93%
351.New Forest EastSouth East25,25149.72%
352.Worcestershire MidWest Midlands28,01849.92%
353.Aldridge-BrownhillsWest Midlands19,83650.42%
354.Brigg and GooleYorkshire and the Humber21,94150.55%
355.Norfolk South WestEast of England26,19550.90%
356.Brentwood and OngarEast of England29,06554.89%
357.Louth and HorncastleEast Midlands28,86855.16%
358.Rayleigh and WickfordEast of England31,00056.47%
359.Staffordshire SouthWest Midlands28,25056.49%
360.Cambridgeshire North EastEast of England29,99356.63%
361.ClactonEast of England24,70256.78%
362.MaldonEast of England30,04159.60%
363.Castle PointEast of England26,63460.15%
364.Boston and SkegnessEast Midlands25,62161.45%
365.South Holland and The DeepingsEast Midlands30,83862.71%

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by swing to defeat)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.EastwoodWest Scotland2,2165.19%
2.Galloway and West DumfriesSouth Scotland2,6357.09%
3.Aberdeenshire WestNorth East Scotland3,3908.12%
4.DumfriesshireSouth Scotland4,0669.94%
5.Ettrick, Roxburgh and BerwickshireSouth Scotland6,86319.04%

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Welsh Assembly Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Welsh Assembly election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Welsh Assembly election.

(order by swing to defeat)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.Vale of ClwydNorth Wales3661.40%
2.Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthMid and West Wales9362.96%
3.Preseli PembrokeshireMid and West Wales1,4004.44%
4.MonmouthSouth Wales East3,84510.72%
5.Brecon and RadnorshireMid and West Wales3,82011.89%
6.Clwyd WestNorth Wales3,68512.99%
7.AberconwyNorth Wales3,33614.17%
8.MontgomeryshireMid and West Wales7,52830.13%

View Conservative target seats for the next Welsh Assembly election.

Quick Links
Latest Posts