Conservative Defence

Below are lists of Conservative marginal seats showing which constituencies won in the latest elections can be most easily lost.

Conservative Defence 2029

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2029 general election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

(order by swing to defeat)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.Basildon and BillericayEast of England200.05%
2.Devon CentralSouth West610.11%
3.HavantSouth East920.22%
4.Exmouth and Exeter EastSouth West1210.24%
5.Beverley and HoldernessYorkshire and the Humber1240.28%
6.Bromley and Biggin HillLondon3020.65%
7.FyldeNorth West5611.17%
8.Broadland and FakenhamEast of England7191.45%
9.Godalming and AshSouth East8911.63%
10.Wrekin, TheWest Midlands8831.77%
11.Wyre ForestWest Midlands8121.80%
12.Gordon and BuchanScotland8782.00%
13.Dumfries and GallowayScotland9302.03%
14.TattonNorth West1,1362.19%
15.Harwich and Essex NorthEast of England1,1622.42%
16.Farnham and BordonSouth East1,3492.54%
17.Hampshire EastSouth East1,2752.54%
18.Bedfordshire MidEast of England1,3212.66%
19.Staffordshire MoorlandsWest Midlands1,1752.71%
20.Hereford and Herefordshire SouthWest Midlands1,2792.81%
21.HuntingdonEast of England1,4992.88%
22.Skipton and RiponYorkshire and the Humber1,6503.09%
23.Shropshire SouthWest Midlands1,6243.14%
24.Faversham and Mid KentSouth East1,4693.15%
25.Dorset NorthSouth West1,5893.20%
26.RomfordLondon1,4633.32%
27.BridgwaterSouth West1,3493.36%
28.SpelthorneSouth East1,5903.44%
29.Keighley and IlkleyYorkshire and the Humber1,6253.52%
30.Maidstone and MallingSouth East1,6743.61%
31.Bognor Regis and LittlehamptonSouth East1,7653.69%
32.Devon South WestSouth West2,1124.04%
33.Hornchurch and UpminsterLondon1,9434.14%
34.Romsey and Southampton NorthSouth East2,1914.38%
35.Stockton WestNorth East2,1394.40%
36.Leicestershire MidEast Midlands2,2014.58%
37.Croydon SouthLondon2,3134.68%
38.Harborough, Oadby and WigstonEast Midlands2,3784.72%
39.Essex North WestEast of England2,6104.80%
40.Herne Bay and SandwichSouth East2,4995.12%
41.Sutton ColdfieldWest Midlands2,5435.26%
42.Bexhill and BattleSouth East2,6575.56%
43.DaventryEast Midlands3,0125.67%
44.Chester South and EddisburyNorth West3,0575.82%
45.BromsgroveWest Midlands3,0165.98%
46.ReigateSouth East3,1875.99%
47.Suffolk SouthEast of England3,0476.24%
48.Hampshire North WestSouth East3,2886.47%
49.BroxbourneEast of England2,8586.65%
50.Norfolk MidEast of England3,0546.65%
51.NewarkEast Midlands3,5726.68%
52.Cotswolds NorthSouth West3,3576.68%
53.Northamptonshire SouthEast Midlands3,6876.87%
54.Wiltshire South WestSouth West3,2437.02%
55.Aberdeenshire West and KincardineScotland3,4417.03%
56.Suffolk WestEast of England3,2477.03%
57.Goole and PocklingtonYorkshire and the Humber3,5727.18%
58.Bridlington and the WoldsYorkshire and the Humber3,1257.28%
59.Old Bexley and SidcupLondon3,5487.45%
60.BraintreeEast of England3,6707.49%
61.GainsboroughEast Midlands3,5327.57%
62.SalisburySouth West3,8077.59%
63.Brigg and ImminghamYorkshire and the Humber3,2437.63%
64.Torridge and TavistockSouth West3,9507.77%
65.Castle PointEast of England3,2518.00%
66.Hamble ValleySouth East4,8028.89%
67.Sleaford and North HykehamEast Midlands4,3468.95%
68.Hertfordshire South WestEast of England4,4569.23%
69.Suffolk Central and Ipswich NorthEast of England4,2909.24%
70.Wetherby and EasingwoldYorkshire and the Humber4,8469.27%
71.Leicester EastEast Midlands4,4269.47%
72.Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleScotland4,2429.59%
73.Grantham and BourneEast Midlands4,4969.75%
74.Isle of Wight EastSouth East3,3239.75%
75.Chingford and Woodford GreenLondon4,7579.81%
76.Solihull West and ShirleyWest Midlands4,6209.86%
77.Wiltshire EastSouth West4,7169.99%
78.WithamEast of England5,14510.17%
79.Meriden and Solihull EastWest Midlands4,58410.41%
80.Aldridge-BrownhillsWest Midlands4,29410.50%
81.Bedfordshire NorthEast of England5,41410.50%
82.Leicestershire SouthEast Midlands5,50610.72%
83.Buckinghamshire MidSouth East5,87210.88%
84.SevenoaksSouth East5,44010.90%
85.OrpingtonLondon5,11811.11%
86.Norfolk North WestEast of England4,95411.12%
87.Hinckley and BosworthEast Midlands5,40811.31%
88.BeaconsfieldSouth East5,45511.43%
89.Rayleigh and WickfordEast of England5,62111.72%
90.Melton and SystonEast Midlands5,39611.73%
91.Louth and HorncastleEast Midlands5,50611.85%
92.Worcestershire WestWest Midlands6,54711.97%
93.New Forest WestSouth East5,60012.09%
94.Fareham and WaterloovilleSouth East6,07912.13%
95.Kenilworth and SouthamWest Midlands6,57412.33%
96.Brentwood and OngarEast of England5,98012.37%
97.Stone, Great Wyrley and PenkridgeWest Midlands5,46612.78%
98.Epping ForestEast of England5,68213.61%
99.GosportSouth East6,05413.67%
100.MaldonEast of England6,90613.86%
101.Sussex WealdSouth East6,84213.91%
102.Kingswinford and Staffordshire SouthWest Midlands6,30313.95%
103.Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkScotland6,59914.17%
104.WindsorSouth East6,45714.27%
105.South Holland and the DeepingsEast Midlands6,85614.93%
106.Surrey EastSouth East7,45015.14%
107.Thirsk and MaltonYorkshire and the Humber7,55015.16%
108.ChristchurchSouth West7,45515.75%
109.Runnymede and WeybridgeSouth East7,62715.81%
110.Ruislip, Northwood and PinnerLondon7,58116.10%
111.Weald of KentSouth East8,42216.61%
112.HertsmereEast of England7,99216.65%
113.East Grinstead and UckfieldSouth East8,48016.83%
114.Droitwich and EveshamWest Midlands8,99518.13%
115.Cambridgeshire North EastEast of England7,18918.35%
116.New Forest EastSouth East8,49518.78%
117.Rutland and StamfordEast Midlands10,39421.40%
118.Arundel and South DownsSouth East12,13422.17%
119.TonbridgeSouth East11,16622.19%
120.Harrow EastLondon11,68024.45%
121.Richmond and NorthallertonYorkshire and the Humber12,18525.11%

View Conservative target seats for the next general election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

(order by swing to defeat)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.EastwoodWest Scotland2,2165.19%
2.Galloway and West DumfriesSouth Scotland2,6357.09%
3.Aberdeenshire WestNorth East Scotland3,3908.12%
4.DumfriesshireSouth Scotland4,0669.94%
5.Ettrick, Roxburgh and BerwickshireSouth Scotland6,86319.04%

View Conservative target seats for the next Scottish Parliament election.

Conservative Defence for the 2026 Senedd Election

Below is the Conservative defence list consisting of Conservative held marginal seats for the 2026 Senedd election. These marginal constituencies are ordered from the smallest to the largest swing to be defeated by the largest opposition party.

View Conservative target seats for the next Senedd election.

(order by swing to defeat)

RankConstituencyRegionMajorityPercent Majority
1.Vale of ClwydNorth Wales3661.40%
2.Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthMid and West Wales9362.96%
3.Preseli PembrokeshireMid and West Wales1,4004.44%
4.MonmouthSouth Wales East3,84510.72%
5.Brecon and RadnorshireMid and West Wales3,82011.89%
6.Clwyd WestNorth Wales3,68512.99%
7.AberconwyNorth Wales3,33614.17%
8.MontgomeryshireMid and West Wales7,52830.13%

View Conservative target seats for the next Senedd election.

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